Lockheed Martin (LMT) Last Update 7/8/26
Related: CAT BA GLW GE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Lockheed Martin
$601.85
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$598
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Lockheed Martin Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Aeronautics (U.S. Aeronautics, Non-U.S. Aeronautics) constitute 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Lockheed Martin's stock.
  2. Missiles & Fire Control (US Missiles & Fire Control, Non-US Missiles & Fire Control) constitutes 29% of the Trefis price estimate for Lockheed Martin's stock.
  3. Mission Systems & Training (US Mission Systems & Training, Non-US Mission Systems & Training) constitutes 20% of the Trefis price estimate for Lockheed Martin's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Lockheed Martin reported total net sales of $18.0 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which remained flat compared to the same period in the prior year. Net earnings for the quarter declined 13% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $6.44 compared to $7.28 in the first quarter of 2025. Financial results were heavily pressured by delivery delays and manufacturing inefficiencies within the Aeronautics division, as well as cost overruns on various fixed-price development contracts, though strong performance in the Missiles and Fire Control segment partially mitigated the compression.

Note: Lockheed Martin's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 29, 2026.

Production Framework Agreements to Expand Tactical Missile Output

Lockheed Martin signed critical framework agreements with the United States government during the quarter to aggressively expand production capacities for essential defense systems. This strategic pivot coordinates massive capital deployments to scale up production rates by three to four times across primary weapons programs, specifically targeting the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile interceptors, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, and Precision Strike Missiles to satisfy high international and domestic procurement backlogs.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Lockheed Martin's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Missiles and Fire Control


  • Tactical Weapon Delivery Volume: Segment net sales increased 8% to $2.9 billion due to higher volume on the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and Long Range Anti-Ship Missile programs. Trefis models steady single-digit gains, but accelerated defense supply lines present an upside scenario to our projected segment revenue.

  • Fixed-Price Contract Margin Recovery: Supply chain inflation on legacy development agreements compressed the company's overall business segment operating margin from 11.6% to 10.1%. Persistent assembly bottlenecks and materials inflation could impose downstream downside risks to near-term operating cash flows.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Lockheed Martin at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Lockheed Martin operates as a premier security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products, and services across aeronautics, missiles, fire control, rotary systems, and space platforms.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Aeronautics segment is the primary catalyst for Lockheed Martin's valuation because it acts as the primary hardware supplier for western fifth-generation combat aircraft fleets.

Global F-35 Lightning Production Monopolization

The F-35 program represents the single largest revenue stream for the company, sustained by a massive long-term order pipeline from international alliance partners that solidifies a highly predictable decade-long manufacturing run.

Massive Defense Order Backlog Visibility

Lockheed Martin maintains an extensive total company backlog of $186.4 billion, reflecting intense global demand for advanced defense infrastructure and giving the firm enormous top-line stability through shifting macroeconomic cycles.

KEY TRENDS

Surging Allied National Defense Procurement

Geopolitical instability across Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific regions continues to drive rapid defense budget expansion among North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and global allies, keeping demand for interceptors elevated.

Capacity Stabilization and Supply Integration

Management is focusing its core operational strategy on resolving technical component software hurdles and labor bottlenecks to clear accumulated aircraft fulfillment backlogs and normalize multi-year free cash flow expansion.