Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Last Update 7/7/26
Related: CMG KO MCD PEP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Keurig Dr Pepper
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
International
44.3%
$17.57
Net Debt
9.8% $3.89
TOTAL
100%
$39.67
$35.78
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$30.79
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Keurig Dr Pepper Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Beverage Concentrates (U.S. Beverages, U.S. Coffee) constitute 56% of the Trefis price estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper's stock.
  2. International constitutes 44% of the Trefis price estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Keurig Dr Pepper reported total net sales of $3.98 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, representing a 9.4% increase year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.39, down 7.1% compared to the prior-year period, yet managing to beat consensus expectations of $0.37. Financial performance reflected divergent trajectories, with significant volume and pricing momentum in U.S. Refreshment Beverages completely offsetting an 8.2% contraction in U.S. Coffee volume caused by intense cost inflation and near-term market headwinds.

Note: Keurig Dr Pepper's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Completion of JDE Peets Acquisition and Corporate Separation Roadmap

Keurig Dr Pepper officially completed its landmark acquisition of JDE Peets on April 1, 2026, creating a heavily scaled international coffee powerhouse. Alongside this integration, the corporate leadership team announced advanced plans for a structural corporate separation targeted for early 2027, which will divide the enterprise into two distinct, pure-play businesses: a standalone beverage company named Beverage Co. and a global hot beverage provider named Global Coffee Co.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Keurig Dr Pepper's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

U.S. Refreshment Beverages


  • Cold Portfolio Volume Execution: Segment net sales surged 11.9% to $2.6 billion, fueled by a strong 7.2% expansion in volume and product mix. Trefis models steady mid-single-digit expansion, but sustained market share gains across core brand lines offer a notable upside scenario to our revenues.

  • Coffee Cost Compression and Synergies: Coffee segment operating income fell 21.3% due to high raw material costs and increased brand investments. Unforeseen integration frictional costs with JDE Peets or delayed realization of cost synergies present a notable downside risk to projected near-term corporate margins.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Keurig Dr Pepper at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Keurig Dr Pepper operates as a leading integrated beverage company in North America, manufacturing and distributing a highly diverse portfolio of hot and cold single-serve coffee systems, carbonated soft drinks, juices, teas, and functional energy waters.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment represents the foundational engine of the company's valuation due to its resilient volume growth and extensive route-to-market distribution network.

Entrenched Multi-Brand Liquid Monopoly

The company commands robust shelf space and consumer loyalty through dominant ownership of core consumer trademarks like Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Snapple, and Mott's, ensuring steady regional volume trends and strong localized pricing power.

Proprietary Keurig Ecosystem Lock-In

The hot beverage division benefits from a massive domestic installed base of Keurig single-serve brewers, which creates a highly lucrative recurring revenue stream from high-margin proprietary K-Cup pod manufacturing partnerships.

KEY TRENDS

Rapid Structural Consolidation of Global Coffee Footprints

Cross-border M&A activity is driving rapid consolidation within the commercial coffee sector, prompting industry leaders to maximize their international asset footprint to capitalize on premium roasting scales and direct e-commerce fulfillment.

Pure-Play Operational Separation Strategy

Management is focusing its core operational roadmap on dividing its cold beverage and hot coffee portfolios into independent corporations, aiming to unlock hidden equity value, establish tailored capital structures, and optimize post-separation management agility.