Johnson Controls (JCI) Last Update 3/23/26
Related: CAT BA LMT GLW
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Johnson Controls
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Net Debt
9.9% $15
TOTAL
100%
$154
$139.00
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$135
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Johnson Controls Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Building Solutions constitute 100% of the Trefis price estimate for Johnson Controls's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Johnson Controls reported Q1 2026 revenue of $6.85 billion, an increase of 3% year-over-year, while core adjusted EPS rose 12% to $0.57. Performance was bolstered by strong organic growth in the Global Building Solutions backlog and robust demand for data center cooling infrastructure. However, residential demand remains soft due to sustained high interest rates, partially offsetting the gains in commercial and industrial HVAC and fire security segments.

Note: Johnson Controls's FY'25 ended on September 30, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on December 31, 2025.

Strategic Divestiture of Residential and Light Commercial Assets

Johnson Controls has officially reached a definitive agreement to divest its Residential and Light Commercial (RLC) HVAC business to Bosch for approximately $8.1 billion. This pivot marks a total transformation into a pure-play commercial buildings technology company. The proceeds are intended for debt reduction and significant share repurchases, as management focuses exclusively on high-margin, software-integrated services for large-scale institutional and commercial clients.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Johnson Controls's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Building Solutions North America

  • Data Center Cooling Demand: The explosion of AI-driven computing has created a surge in demand for specialized liquid cooling and high-efficiency HVAC systems. If JCI captures a larger share of the hyperscale data center market, there is a potential 8-10% upside to revenue forecasts for the North American segment through 2027.
  • Service Backlog Conversion: JCI currently holds a record service backlog. The speed at which the company can deploy skilled labor to convert these contracts into realized revenue is a key variable; labor shortages in the HVAC trade remain a downside risk to Trefis margin estimates.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Johnson Controls at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Johnson Controls is a global leader in smart, healthy, and sustainable building technologies. Following its recent strategic pivot, the company focuses on integrated building systems, including HVAC, fire protection, security, and digital automation via its OpenBlue software platform, serving the commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Global Building Solutions segments represent the core of JCI's value, driven by long-term service contracts and an industry-leading installed base.

OpenBlue Digital Ecosystem

JCI’s OpenBlue platform creates a high-margin recurring revenue stream by integrating AI with building hardware. This "sticky" software layer allows for remote diagnostics and energy optimization, making it costly and operationally difficult for clients to switch to alternative vendors once the ecosystem is embedded.

Comprehensive Service Network

With one of the largest direct service footprints in the world, JCI generates nearly half of its revenue from aftermarket services and retrofits. This provides a defensive buffer against cyclical fluctuations in new construction, as building owners prioritize maintenance and regulatory compliance regardless of the macro environment.

KEY TRENDS

Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Regulations

Global mandates for net-zero buildings are driving a massive retrofit cycle. JCI is positioned as a primary beneficiary as commercial landlords seek to upgrade legacy heating and cooling systems to high-efficiency heat pumps and digital controls to avoid "carbon fines" and reduce operating costs.

Data Center Infrastructure Expansion

The physical infrastructure required to support generative AI is significantly more heat-intensive than traditional cloud storage. JCI is shifting its R&D toward liquid cooling and advanced thermal management, transitioning from a general HVAC provider to a specialized mission-critical infrastructure partner.

Portfolio Simplification

The divestiture of the RLC and Power Solutions businesses over the last several years signals a permanent shift toward a higher-multiple "Pure Play" model. By shedding lower-margin, capital-intensive manufacturing units, JCI aims to re-rate its stock price closer to industrial software peers.