Johnson Controls (JCI) Last Update 7/9/26
Related: CAT BA LMT GLW
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Johnson Controls
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Net Debt
9.6% $15
TOTAL
100%
$154
$139.33
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$150
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Johnson Controls Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Building Solutions constitute 100% of the Trefis price estimate for Johnson Controls's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Fiscal Q2 2026

Quarterly sales rose 8% year-over-year to $6.14 billion, clearing the Wall Street consensus estimate of $6.08 billion, while organic sales expanded by 6%. Non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $1.19, up 45% from $0.82 in the fiscal second quarter of 2025 and beating the consensus analyst target by $0.07. Performance was driven by double-digit field services growth, intense institutional demand for Applied HVAC solutions within AI data center platforms, and structural margin leverage that expanded adjusted segment EBITA margins by 370 basis points to 14.9%. Following these strong results, management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.85.

Note: Johnson Controls's FY'25 ended on September 30, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Structural Simplification and Shift to Commercial Pure-Play

Johnson Controls completed the transition of its portfolio into a streamlined pure-play commercial building solutions provider after finalizing the divestiture of its global residential and light commercial HVAC operations to Robert Bosch GmbH for an aggregate enterprise valuation of $8.1 billion. The company captured roughly $6.7 billion in total gross cash consideration from the transaction, including the complete sale of its majority interest in the Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning joint venture. Net proceeds are being actively deployed to execute a comprehensive operational restructuring plan designed to optimize post-close margins and completely eliminate legacy stranded corporate costs.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Johnson Controls's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Building Solutions Americas


  • Hyperscale Data Center Backlog Expansion: Corporate order intake jumped 30% organically during the fiscal second quarter, propelling the total global backlog to an all-time record of $20.0 billion. Accelerating technical installation requirements for liquid cooling and advanced thermal management across AI data center campuses present a major upside scenario to structural field volume estimates.

  • Stranded Cost Elimination Execution: Corporate overhead expenses dropped 24% to $102 million in the latest quarter due to ongoing operational efficiency actions. Any organizational friction or delays in executing the post-divestiture restructuring blueprint pose a near-term downside risk to net margin targets if legacy fixed overhead remains sticky.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Johnson Controls at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Johnson Controls is a global industrial leader delivering mission-critical building infrastructure solutions, advanced thermal management systems, and comprehensive digital energy efficiency services. Operating through localized geographic segments across the Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific, the company designs, installs, and maintains integrated heating, ventilation, air conditioning, controls, fire protection, and security systems tailored exclusively for large-scale commercial, institutional, and industrial facilities.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Building Solutions Americas division serves as the fundamental anchor of enterprise value for Johnson Controls, generating more than two-thirds of total segment revenues and commanding superior structural operating leverage.

Record Backlog and Structural Data Center Moat

The division leverages an unreplicable, massive commercial backlog that expanded 26% organically to $20 billion as of early 2026, driven by secular institutional infrastructure expansions. This dense concentration of complex multi-year projects establishes exceptional visibility for forward factory utilization and shields the company's equipment delivery schedule from localized macro economic construction volatility.

High-Margin Proprietary OpenBlue Digital Ecosystem

By deeply embedding its OpenBlue software platform directly into commercial HVAC, security, and fire protection hardware assets, Johnson Controls creates an unbreakable digital ecosystem link. This smart infrastructure network gathers building telemetry to optimize real-time energy use, driving highly predictable, recurring field service and software-as-a-service contract revenue streams that support high segment margins.

KEY TRENDS

Explosive Generative AI Liquid Cooling and Thermal Demand

The global technology infrastructure sector is shifting rapidly toward next-generation high-density compute architectures that generate intense, localized heat profiles. Johnson Controls has aligned its commercial platform directly to this mega-trend, optimizing its heavy Applied HVAC chiller lines and air handling systems to capture dominant market share across expanding hyperscale data center clusters.

Portfolio Narrowing and Comprehensive Restructuring Strategy

Multi-industrial corporations are aggressively divesting slow-growth consumer assets to simplify operational execution and boost returns on invested capital. Johnson Controls's multi-billion dollar divestiture of its residential heating and cooling units to Bosch highlights this strategy, allowing management to function as a high-margin, pure-play commercial solutions specialist.