IBM (IBM) Last Update 7/7/26
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% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
IBM
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Software
72.5%
$256
Consulting
14.2%
$50
Net Debt
19.8% $70
TOTAL
100%
$354
$283.48
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$238
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

IBM Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Software constitutes 73% of the Trefis price estimate for IBM's stock.
  2. Consulting constitutes 14% of the Trefis price estimate for IBM's stock.
  3. Infrastructure constitutes 13% of the Trefis price estimate for IBM's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

IBM reported total revenue of $15.9 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, representing a 9% increase year-over-year. Operating non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $1.91, up 19% compared to the prior-year period, beating market consensus estimates. Financial performance was primarily driven by double-digit growth across the Software and Infrastructure segments, led by robust expansion in hybrid cloud platforms, data analytics demand, and the continuous acceleration of the z17 mainframe cycle.

Note: IBM's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Completion of Confluent Acquisition to Power Enterprise Artificial Intelligence

IBM completed its 11 billion dollar all-cash acquisition of Confluent, Inc., successfully integrating the data streaming pioneer into its software ecosystem. This strategic transaction combines Confluent's Apache Kafka infrastructure with IBM's watsonx platform and Z mainframes, establishing a comprehensive smart data platform designed to feed autonomous artificial intelligence models and enterprise agents with secure, real-time governed data streams across hybrid environments.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of IBM's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Software


  • Hybrid Cloud and Red Hat Run Rate: Red Hat OpenShift achieved a 2.0 billion dollar annual recurring revenue run rate, driving a 13% expansion in hybrid cloud performance. Trefis models steady baseline growth, but accelerated conversion of enterprise cloud workloads offers a notable upside scenario to our software revenues.

  • Confluent Synergy Execution and Margins: Management guides the broader data business to low 20% growth for the full fiscal year following the Confluent closure. Any unexpected product roadmap integration delays or client friction stemming from enterprise contract transitions could impose near-term downside pressure on operational software margins.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for IBM at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

IBM operates as a global technology and services provider, integrating hybrid cloud infrastructure, advanced software platforms, consulting expertise, and enterprise computing systems to drive digital transformation and artificial intelligence implementation.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Software division represents the most valuable contributor to IBM's long-term valuation due to its high-margin recurring contract streams and central position in hybrid IT orchestration.

Red Hat OpenShift Orchestration Moat

The company commands a powerful competitive advantage through Red Hat OpenShift, which serves as the de facto hybrid cloud container platform for large-scale enterprises, generating high switching friction and sticky recurring revenue.

Entrenched Mainframe Transactional Monopoly

IBM Z systems remain the absolute hardware standard for high-volume financial services and public sector transaction processing, running hundreds of billions of secure daily inferences with sub-millisecond latency.

KEY TRENDS

Scaled Corporate Transition to Live Data Artificial Intelligence

Global enterprise information technology spending continues to migrate away from isolated artificial intelligence proof-of-concept projects toward scaled autonomous agents that rely heavily on real-time data streaming architectures.

High-Margin Software Consolidation Strategy

Management is focusing its core operational roadmap on expanding its high-margin software portfolio, aggressively deploying capital into infrastructure automation and data governance buyouts while optimizing overall corporate productivity actions.