VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Motorcycles and Related Products constitute 24% of the Trefis price estimate for Harley-Davidson's stock.
2. Financial Services constitute 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Harley-Davidson's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Harley-Davidson reported Q1 fiscal year 2026 revenue of 1.17 billion dollars, down 12% year-over-year, while diluted earnings per share fell to 0.22 dollars from 1.07 dollars in the prior-year period. The financial contraction was driven primarily by 45 million dollars in front-loaded tariff costs and the ongoing strategic transition of Harley-Davidson Financial Services to a capital-light operational model, which obscured a strong 14% retail sales expansion in the North American market.

Note: Harley-Davidson's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Revolution Max Powertrain Production Relocated to United States Facilities

In June 2026, Harley-Davidson announced the return of its Revolution Max powertrain manufacturing operations back to its domestic production facilities in the United States. This strategic realignment aims to consolidate assembly processes, bolster domestic supply chain efficiencies, and leverage localized quality control to support high-performance motorcycle variants.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Harley-Davidson's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Harley-Davidson Motor Company

• North American Retail Unit Demand: Retail motorcycle volume in North America grew 14% year-over-year to approximately 24,000 units in the latest quarter. If sustained product optimization outpaces current Trefis projections, it provides an upside scenario, though compressed wholesale shipments to clear dealer network inventories represents a counterbalancing downside risk.


• Gross Margin Stabilization Under Tariffs: Core gross margin compressed to 25.3% due to heightened global trade expenses and promotional clear-out pricing. The baseline Trefis forecast assumes stabilization, but any mitigation of the projected 75 million to 90 million dollars in full-year tariff costs offers a significant margin upside scenario.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Harley-Davidson at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Harley-Davidson operates a premium heavyweight motorcycle manufacturing business alongside a dedicated financial services division that supports dealer inventories and retail consumer financing.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The premium motorcycle manufacturing division serves as the fundamental anchor of Harley-Davidson's enterprise value due to its high gross margin profile and distinct branding ecosystem.

Unrivaled Brand Loyalty and Community Moat

Harley-Davidson maintains a powerful brand community that fosters consistent repeat purchases, insulating the company from typical consumer cyclicality.

Dominant Heavyweight Market Share

The company commands approximately 38% of the premium 601cc plus heavyweight motorcycle market share in the United States, cementing a massive active installed base.

KEY TRENDS

Elevated Trade Policy and Tariff Headwinds

Global macroeconomic trade policy and persistent international tariffs continue to burden operational profits, forcing ongoing supply management actions.

Transition to Capital-Light Financial Services Model

The corporation is actively restructuring its financial division toward a capital-light framework by selling off portions of its retail loan book to enhance capital efficiency.