Harley-Davidson (HOG) Last Update 8/19/26
Related: MBGAF F HMC GM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Harley-Davidson
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
TOTAL
100%
$31.56
$31.56
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$25.45
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Harley-Davidson Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Motorcycles and Related Products constitute 21% of the Trefis price estimate for Harley-Davidson's stock.
  2. Financial Services constitute 11% of the Trefis price estimate for Harley-Davidson's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q2 FY'26

Harley-Davidson reported Q2 FY'26 consolidated revenue of $1.23 billion, down 6% year-over-year, and diluted EPS of $0.75, down 15% year-over-year. Revenue was negatively impacted by a 55% contraction at Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) following its transition toward a capital-light model. However, Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) revenue rose 6% to $1.10 billion on a 9% increase in global wholesale motorcycle shipments, which reached 39,209 units alongside a 3% gain in North American retail sales.

Note: Harley-Davidson's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

HDFS Strategic Restructuring and Guidance Raise

Harley-Davidson completed a major transaction transforming HDFS into a capital-light, de-risked financial entity through strategic partnerships with KKR and PIMCO. Coupled with strong Q2 execution that reduced global dealer inventories by 17% year-over-year, management raised its full-year 2026 outlook. HDMC wholesale shipment targets were increased to 133,500-138,500 units, and full-year HDMC operating income guidance was upgraded to $10 million-$50 million.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Harley-Davidson's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Motorcycle & Financial Services Operations


  • HDMC Wholesale Volume & Pricing: Wholesale shipments grew 9% in Q2 FY'26 to 39,209 units, driving HDMC revenue up 6% to $1.10 billion. Stabilization in dealer inventory levels provides upside to volume forecasts, though net pricing pressure and tariff cost risks present headwinds to gross margins.

  • HDFS Capital-Light Model Transition: Revenue for HDFS dropped 55% to $117 million in Q2 FY'26 as a result of shifting finance receivables under the KKR and PIMCO partnership structure. While top-line revenue at HDFS is permanently reduced, lower debt burdens and reduced capital intensity are expected to expand return on equity and free cash flow generation over time.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Harley-Davidson at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Harley-Davidson, Inc. operates as a parent company designing, manufacturing, and selling heavyweight touring and cruiser motorcycles through Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC). It provides retail financing, insurance services, and wholesale dealer funding via Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), while expanding into zero-emission mobility through its majority-owned electric motorcycle brand, LiveWire.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Harley-Davidson Motor Company generates the bulk of consolidated revenue and represents the foundational engine of total equity value.

Iconic Brand Equity and Premium Pricing Power

Harley-Davidson commands unmatched customer loyalty in the heavyweight motorcycle segment, allowing it to generate premium price points and sustain high gross margins across its flagship Touring and Cruiser families.

Extensive Dealer Network and High-Margin Accessories

The company operates a global, highly specialized dealer footprint that supports reliable recurring revenue streams from long-margin Parts & Accessories as well as licensed General Merchandise and Apparel.

Strategic Financial Services Integration

HDFS serves as a vital sales enabler by offering competitive retail financing and credit support to customers and dealers, while its pivot to a capital-light partnership framework unlocks capital for shareholder distributions.

KEY TRENDS

Supply-Demand Rebalancing and Dealer Inventory Discipline

Harley-Davidson has aggressively prioritized inventory health, reducing global new motorcycle dealer inventory by 17% year-over-year. This structural shift aligns wholesale shipments closer to actual retail demand, supporting retail pricing stability.

Capital-Light Financial Restructuring

By partnering with institutional asset managers like KKR and PIMCO, Harley-Davidson is de-risking HDFS, de-leveraging its balance sheet, and monetizing loan portfolios to generate substantial capital dividends for share repurchases.

EV Electrification Investments via LiveWire

The company continues to fund LiveWire's electric motorcycle developments, accepting managed near-term operating losses to secure an early footprint in modern urban transportation and young-rider demographics.