Gap Inc. (GAP) Last Update 4/3/26
Related: AEO ANF TPR NKE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Gap Inc.
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Old Navy Stores
57.9%
$19.85
Gap Stores
21.9%
$7.50
Athleta Stores
7.5%
$2.56
Other Stores
0.4%
$0.12
Net Debt
21.0% $7.20
TOTAL
100%
$34.25
$27.05
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$23.17
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Gap Inc. Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Old Navy Stores constitute 58% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.
  2. Gap Stores constitute 22% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.
  3. Banana Republic Stores constitute 12% of the Trefis price estimate for Gap Inc.'s stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Q4 Snapshot

Net sales rose about 2% year-over-year to ~$4.2 billion, supported by +3% comparable sales, marking continued momentum across core brands. Profitability, however, was more mixed: EPS came in at $0.45, down from $0.54 in the prior year (−17% YoY), reflecting margin pressure despite disciplined execution. Gross margin declined roughly 80 basis points YoY to 38.1%, primarily due to tariff-related cost headwinds, partially offset by lower discounting and improved inventory control.

Old Navy remained steady with +3% comparable sales and +3% revenue growth, continuing to anchor the group with broad-based demand. The Gap brand was the standout, with sales up 8% and comps up ~7%, reflecting successful product resets and improving relevance. Banana Republic delivered modest progress, with +1% sales growth and +4% comps, marking continued traction from its premium repositioning. In contrast, Athleta remained a drag, with sales down 11% and comps down ~10%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the brand reset.

Note: Gap's FY'25 ended on January 31, 2026.

FY'26 Outlook

The company expects net sales to increase 2%–3% YoY (implying roughly $15.7–$15.9 billion), with comparable sales remaining positive across core brands. Profitability is projected to improve slightly, with adjusted operating margin of 7.3%–7.5% (vs. 7.3% in FY2025) and gross margin flat to slightly up, reflecting better inventory discipline and pricing, offset by tariff headwinds. On earnings, Gap guided to adjusted EPS of $2.20–$2.35, implying mid-single-digit growth y-o-y from $2.13 in FY2025.

Management also flagged a softer start to the year, with Q1 margins expected to decline due to tariff impacts, but sees full-year pressures largely mitigated.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Gap is a global specialty retailer offering clothing, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children. It markets its products under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athleta, GapKids, babyGap, and Intermix brands.

Gap Inc. operates four distinct brands targeting different customer segments: Old Navy, which focuses on value-driven, fashion-conscious families; Gap, aimed at young adults seeking casual, modern essentials; Banana Republic, positioned toward more affluent and relatively older customers with a premium aesthetic; and Athleta, which caters to active, wellness-focused women with an emphasis on performance and lifestyle apparel.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Gap Inc.'s value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Old Navy Segment

  • Revenue Growth: Old Navy remains the largest contributor to revenue. A sustained recovery in traffic and conversion could drive mid single digit growth, above current expectations, providing upside. However, continued weakness in lower income consumer demand could pressure sales.
  • Operating Margin Expansion: Margin improvement through reduced discounting and better sourcing could lift profitability. If margins revert to pre inflation levels, valuation could see meaningful upside; failure to sustain pricing discipline would limit gains.

Gap Brand and Athleta

  • Brand Turnaround Execution: Gap brand is undergoing repositioning. Successful product refresh and marketing could stabilize sales declines, while execution missteps may weigh on performance.
  • Athleta Performance: Athleta has faced slowing demand. A return to growth through product innovation and brand clarity could support the overall revenue mix, while continued stagnation would drag consolidated results.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Gap Inc. at the top of the page.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Old Navy is the single largest contributor to Gap Inc.'s valuation, driven by scale and mass market positioning.

Scale in Value Apparel Segment

Old Navy benefits from a broad demographic reach and price competitiveness, allowing it to capture a significant share in the value apparel category.

Improving Merchandise Margins

Recent focus on inventory discipline and reduced promotions has supported gross margin recovery, which is critical for overall profitability.

Omnichannel Capabilities

The company's integrated store and digital platform support convenience and customer retention, enhancing long term revenue stability.

KEY TRENDS

Consumer Spending Environment

Macroeconomic pressure on discretionary spending continues to impact apparel demand, particularly among lower-income consumers, affecting traffic and conversion rates.

Operational Efficiency Focus

Gap Inc. is prioritizing cost control, supply chain efficiency, and inventory optimization to protect margins amid volatile demand.

Brand Rationalization and Portfolio Focus

The company is sharpening its focus on core brands and reducing complexity, aiming to drive a clearer brand identity and improved execution.