FedEx (FDX) Last Update 7/10/26
Related: LUV DAL UAL UNP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
FedEx
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
FedEx Ground
64.7%
$317
FedEx Express
33.9%
$166
Net Debt
26.3% $129
TOTAL
100%
$491
$361.45
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$326
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

FedEx Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. FedEx Ground constitutes 65% of the Trefis price estimate for FedEx's stock.
  2. FedEx Express constitute 34% of the Trefis price estimate for FedEx's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 FY2026

Revenue for the quarter climbed 13% year-over-year to $25.01 billion, clearing the $24.04 billion Wall Street target. Non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $6.31, beating the consensus expectation of $5.96 by $0.35. This financial performance was primarily driven by the Federal Express Corporation segment, where revenue rose 14%, supported by a strong B2B premium freight mix shift across healthcare, automotive, and data center shipments, along with an expansion in gross margin to 30% from 26% in the prior year.

Note: FedEx's FY2026 ended on May 31, 2026. Q4 FY2026 ended on May 31, 2026.

Completion of FedEx Freight Unit Spin-Off

On June 1, 2026, FedEx successfully completed the planned spin-off of its less-than-truckload shipping unit, FedEx Freight, into a new standalone publicly traded company. Prior to the separation, the Freight unit completed a $3.7 billion senior notes issuance to distribute net proceeds back to FedEx Corporation as asset contribution consideration. This strategic pivot allows FedEx to sharpen its internal focus entirely on its integrated express and ground package operations, completely removing the macro cyclicality of heavy freight from its core financial statements.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of FedEx's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Federal Express Corporation


  • Premium B2B Mix Conversion Expansion: Expanding focus into premium commercial verticals like aerospace, data centers, and healthcare continues to lift domestic shipping yields. Accelerated penetration into high-margin enterprise accounts provides an upside scenario to current Trefis average package yield forecasts.

  • Sticky Operating Expense Tail Winds: Total operating expenses climbed to $4.69 billion in the latest quarter, showing that infrastructure fixed costs are absorbing a notable portion of gross profit gains. Slow facility execution or lingering corporate integration bottlenecks pose a downside risk to mid-term operating margin projections.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for FedEx at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

FedEx Corporation provides a comprehensive portfolio of global transportation, e-commerce, and business services. Following the separation of its freight segment, the company operates an integrated network through Federal Express Corporation, utilizing advanced digital logistics infrastructure to handle express package delivery, domestic ground fulfillment, international air freight forwarding, and commercial supply chain management solutions worldwide.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The unified package delivery segment serves as the fundamental engine of value for FedEx, accounting for more than 95% of total corporate revenues following the separation of the freight asset portfolio.

Vast Air and Ground Intercontinental Logistics Network Moat

FedEx operates a massive, capital-intensive fleet of aircraft and automated sorting facilities that connect global businesses across continents within tight delivery timelines. The immense upfront capital requirements and global regulatory flight access approvals needed to replicate this hub-and-spoke infrastructure establish an absolute competitive shield.

High-Yield Vertical B2B Focus and Core Pricing Power

By strategically shifting its sales mix away from low-yielding residential retail volume toward time-sensitive, high-value commercial accounts, FedEx commands superior pricing leverage. This structural mix shift insulates the company's baseline gross margin from standard consumer spending fluctuations.

KEY TRENDS

Network 2.0 Operational Multi-Modal Facility Consolidation

Global courier corporations are aggressively unifying separate line-haul and delivery branches to eliminate overlapping vehicle routes and optimize building space. FedEx's multi-year Network 2.0 initiative reflects this optimization trend, targeting billions in permanent structural savings by redirecting high percentages of parcel volume through centralized, automated sorting facilities.

Tricolor Airfreight Optimization and Fleet Streamlining Strategy

International transport providers are redesigning global flight scheduling layouts to better balance fluctuating priority and deferred shipping demands. FedEx is actively deploying its Tricolor network framework to segment aircraft routes by speed and margin density, allowing the company to retire older wide-body jets while capturing premium export volume out of key Asian industrial corridors.