VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- Ford Blue constitutes 41% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
- Ford Pro constitutes 26% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
- Vehicle Lease & Loans constitute 23% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Latest Earnings
Ford reported record Q3 2025 revenues of $50.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with net income coming in at $2.4 billion. Adjusted operating income held steady at $2.6 billion despite a $700 million tariff headwind and production disruptions from a fire at a key supplier's aluminum plant. Ford warned of potential production issues for its high-margin F-150 trucks due to the supply disruption, cutting its annual operating income forecast to $6.0-6.5 billion from $6.5-7.5 billion.
- Ford Scales Back On EV Plans
Ford has scaled back on its EV plans amid tepid demand. The company has abandoned plans to build out 2 million EVs per year by the end of 2026, while also delaying a plan to invest $12 billion in battery-powered vehicles. Ford is also reducing capacity and hiring plans at a new battery manufacturing facility that it is building in Michigan.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Ford's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Ford:
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Ford Blue Volumes: Sales of Ford Blue vehicles rose from around 2.83 million in 2022 to 2.9 million in 2023 and remained roughly flat in 2024. Trefis expects the metric to grow to about 3.04 million by 2031. However, if volumes rise to over 3.6 million, our price estimate could have a 10% plus upside.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive company headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, USA. It manufactures and distributes automobiles across six continents. The company's automotive brands include Ford and Lincoln. The company provides financial services, such as vehicle leases and loans, through the Ford Motor Credit Company.
SOURCES OF VALUE
F-Series Pick Up Trucks
Ford generates its maximum revenues from pick-up trucks sold in North America. The company commands over 15% market share in the North American trucks segment, and this share could grow steadily in the future.
