Ford (F) Last Update 8/5/26
Related: MBGAF HMC GM TM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Ford
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Ford Pro
35.7%
$6.82
Ford Blue
9.7%
$1.86
Ford Model e
6.0%
$1.15
TOTAL
100%
$19.12
$19.01
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$13.83
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Ford Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Ford Pro constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
  2. Vehicle Lease & Loans constitute 26% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
  3. Ford Blue constitutes 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q2 FY'26

Ford reported Q2 FY'26 total revenue of $48.3 billion, down 3.8% year-over-year from $50.2 billion in Q2 FY'25. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.42, topping analyst consensus estimates, while net loss stood at $1.3 billion due to a non-cash special item charge. Top-line performance was driven by favorable pricing and product mix in Ford Blue and solid Ford Pro commercial results, which offset lower Model e EV wholesales and an aluminum supply disruption. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion.

Note: Ford's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

BlueOval SK Restructuring Charge and Full-Year Guidance Lift

Ford recorded a $3.6 billion largely non-cash special item charge in Q2 FY'26 related to the strategic disposition of its BlueOval SK joint venture interest as part of its ongoing EV capital reallocation. Despite this charge and supply chain friction, operational execution across traditional trucks and commercial fleets prompted management to raise full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Ford's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Ford Pro Commercial Segment


  • Commercial Fleet Pricing Power: Strong fleet demand for Super Duty pickups and Transit vans drove $1.7 billion in EBIT for Ford Pro in Q2. Continued adoption of software subscriptions and telematics services provides margin upside, though potential macro slowing in enterprise capital spending remains a downside risk.

  • Supply Chain Mitigation: Resolution of raw material supply disruptions, including aluminum sourcing friction, allows Ford Pro to clear backlog and improve delivery schedules, supporting operating margin expansion.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Ford at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a full line of Ford trucks, utility vehicles, commercial vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles. The company operates through three primary automotive business segments: Ford Blue for internal combustion and hybrid vehicles, Ford Model e for electric vehicles, and Ford Pro for commercial vehicles and fleet services, alongside its financial services arm, Ford Motor Credit Company.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Ford Pro and Ford Blue represent the primary operational engines driving company valuation and cash flow generation.

Dominance in Commercial Vehicles and Fleet Market

Ford Pro holds a leading position in commercial vehicles across North America and Europe, supported by strong enterprise relationships, customized fleet solutions, and high-margin recurring software services.

F-Series Franchise and High-Margin Truck Unit Economics

The Ford F-Series remains the top-selling truck family in the United States, providing significant operating leverage, high average transaction prices, and substantial free cash flow to support capital return programs.

Ford Credit Captive Financing Ecosystem

Ford Motor Credit Company provides structural financing support to dealers and retail customers, generating steady profitability and supporting sales volume across diverse macroeconomic environments.

KEY TRENDS

Hybrid Powertrain Adoption and EV Portfolio Rightsizing

Consumer demand in North America continues to favor hybrid powertrains over battery electric vehicles, prompting Ford to reallocate capital toward hybrids and high-margin internal combustion platforms while scaling back capital-intensive EV programs.

Operational Discipline and Cost Restructuring

Ford continues to execute its Ford+ plan, prioritizing manufacturing efficiency, structural cost reductions, and disciplined capital allocation to maintain liquidity above target levels and drive sustainable free cash flow generation.