Ford (F) Last Update 5/6/26
Related: MBGAF HMC GM TM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Ford
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Ford Pro
34.5%
$5.70
Ford Blue
9.3%
$1.54
Ford Model e
5.9%
$0.98
TOTAL
100%
$16.54
$16.36
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$12.32
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Ford Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Ford Pro constitutes 34% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
  2. Vehicle Lease & Loans constitute 30% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
  3. Ford Blue constitutes 9% of the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year FY'25

Ford reported record full-year 2025 revenue of $187.3 billion, a slight increase over 2024, but faced significant headwinds that resulted in a net loss of $8.2 billion for the year. Adjusted EBIT for the full year was $6.8 billion, impacted by $2.0 billion in costs related to supplier fires and $2.0 billion from net tariff impacts. For Q4 FY'25, revenue was $45.9 billion (down 5% year-over-year) with an adjusted EPS of $0.13, which beat reduced analyst estimates despite the challenging macro environment.

Note: Ford's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

New Battery Energy Storage Business Launch

In early 2026, Ford announced a significant strategic expansion by appointing Lisa Drake as President of the newly formed Ford Energy division. This pivot focuses on launching a dedicated battery energy storage business to complement its vehicle lineup. This move aims to diversify revenue streams beyond traditional automotive sales, leveraging Ford's battery supply chain to provide grid-scale and residential energy solutions, similar to the ecosystem approach seen in leading tech-heavy peers.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Ford's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Ford Pro and Software Services


  • Commercial Services Expansion: Ford Pro remains the company's strongest growth engine, generating $6.8 billion in EBIT during 2025. Paid software subscriptions grew by 30% year-over-year, indicating a successful shift toward high-margin recurring revenue. If subscription attachment rates exceed Trefis's 2026 forecasts, significant margin expansion is likely.

  • Vehicle Quality and Warranty Costs: Ford is prioritizing a reduction in material and warranty costs, which have historically pressured the Blue and Model e segments. In 2025, the company reported real progress in quality metrics; a continued downward trend in warranty-related payouts would provide a direct boost to net margins and valuation.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Ford at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Ford is an automotive and mobility company that operates through three main customer-facing segments: Ford Blue (internal combustion and hybrid vehicles), Ford Model e (electric vehicles), and Ford Pro (commercial vehicles and services). The company is currently executing its "Ford+" plan, which focuses on high-margin commercial segments, scaling hybrid and electric platforms, and building a software-led ecosystem to increase lifetime customer value.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Ford Pro has established itself as the company's primary source of value due to its dominance in the commercial sector and its shift toward high-margin digital services.

Market Dominance in Commercial Vans and Trucks

The Ford Transit and Super Duty lines achieved record volumes in 2025, securing Ford's position as the leader in the U.S. commercial market. This dominance provides a massive, loyal customer base that is increasingly opting for integrated service and telematics packages.

Highly Accretive Anti-Cyclical Businesses

The Ford Credit segment remains a vital source of earnings stability, reporting $2.6 billion in EBT for 2025 (a 55% increase). This financial arm provides a buffer during volatile production cycles and supports consumer and fleet purchasing power through various economic conditions.

KEY TRENDS

Hybrid-First Portfolio Strategy

Recognizing a slower transition to full electrification, Ford is prioritizing hybrids to meet consumer demand. The F-150 and Maverick are currently the best-selling hybrid pickups in the U.S., a trend that allows Ford to capture fuel-efficiency seekers without the high infrastructure hurdles of pure EVs.

Tariff and Supply Chain Sensitivity

Macro-economic shifts, specifically a $2 billion net headwind from tariffs in 2025, have forced Ford to refine its global industrial system. The company is aggressively restructuring its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks and one-time supplier disruptions that significantly impacted the FY'25 bottom line.