EOG Resources delivered a solid Q3 2025, beating production guidance across oil, NGLs, and natural gas while keeping capital spending slightly below plan. The company generated about $1.4 billion in free cash flow and returned roughly $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, reflecting continued capital-allocation discipline. Adjusted net income came in at $1.47 billion ($2.71 per share), supported by strong volumes and tight cost control, though revenue landed just shy of some analyst expectations. EOG also closed its Encino Acquisition Partners deal during the quarter, expanding its inventory and offering a potential multi-year growth catalyst.
EOG Resources, Inc. announced that, for full year 2025, it expects to generate approximately US$4.5 billion in free cash flow—an upward revision of about US$200 million from prior guidance. In terms of production, the company is guiding for total equivalent-production of roughly 1,211.5 to 1,234.4 MBoed for the year, with Q4 alone expected to be in the 1,346.4 to 1,386.3 MBoed range. They reaffirm a commitment to return at least 70% of free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks—though historically they’ve returned about 90%. For 2026 and beyond, the company has not provided detailed capital-spending or growth guidance; instead, they suggest using the Q4 run rate as a starting point for next-year planning, signalling a disciplined approach rather than aggressive growth.
Below are some key value drivers for EOG Resources that present opportunities for a significant upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for the company:
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for EOG Resources at the top of the page.
EOG Resources is an independent oil and gas company that explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas primarily in major producing basins in the U.S., Trinidad, Canada, and the U.K. Around 99% of the company's total net proved reserves are located in the U.S., while 1% of the remaining net proved reserves are located in Trinidad.
The difference between EOG Resources' reported net revenue and the figures used in our model is primarily because we use core sales revenue (which comes from the sale of hydrocarbons) figures that exclude the revenue it generates from the distribution, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbon and other sources of income.
Crude Oil exploration and production is by far the most valuable division for EOG Resources for the following reasons:
Proven reserves are an extremely critical metric for an oil and gas exploration and production company. It represents the total quantity of technically and economically recoverable oil and gas reserves owned by the company at a given point in time. It directly impacts the company's production growth outlook.
EOG Resources' proven hydrocarbon reserves stood at 4.79 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2024.
The Delaware Basin is a geologic depositional and structural basin in West Texas and southern New Mexico, famous for holding large oil fields and for a fossilized reef exposed at the surface. Delaware Basin contributes about 60% to EOG Resources' total crude oil production.
EOG Resources is the leading oil producer and acreage holder in the Delaware Basin. The Delaware Basin consists of approximately 4,800 feet of oil-rich stacked pay potential offering EOG multiple co-development opportunities throughout its 395,000 net acre position. In 2024, EOG Resources produced crude oil from the Delaware Basin at an average rate of 309,700 barrels per day, compared to the 231,000 barrels per day that it produced in 2021.
EOG Resources' volume mix has been improving recently with the proportion of liquids (crude oil and natural gas liquids) in its total sales mix increasing. Liquids are priced higher than natural gas primarily due to higher energy density and ease of transport, among other factors. In 2024, EOG Resources sold liquids at an average price of $23.4 per barrel, while the company realized a price of just $1.99 per BOE of natural gas on average. Therefore, despite lower finding, development, and lifting costs per BOE of natural gas, the production of liquids is still a far more lucrative source of revenue for upstream oil and gas companies in the U.S.
Over the last few years, EOG Resources' average well productivity has increased considerably on optimized spacing and efficiency improvements in fracking techniques. Higher well productivity leads to lower per-unit production costs, which results in thicker operating margins for upstream oil and gas companies. Going forward, we expect EOG Resources' well productivity to improve further by increasing the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well due to technological advancements in fracking techniques.
