Diageo (DEO) Last Update 7/7/26
Related: CMG KO MCD PEP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Diageo
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
North America
37.3%
$47.54
Europe
22.6%
$28.76
Asia Pacific
21.0%
$26.74
Latin America
9.6%
$12.20
Africa
9.5%
$12.11
Net Debt
23.0% $29.26
TOTAL
100%
$127.36
$98.10
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$83.08
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Diageo Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. North America constitutes 37% of the Trefis price estimate for Diageo's stock.
  2. Europe constitutes 23% of the Trefis price estimate for Diageo's stock.
  3. Asia Pacific constitutes 21% of the Trefis price estimate for Diageo's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: H1 Fiscal Year 2026

Diageo reported total net sales of $10.46 billion for the first half of fiscal 2026, representing a 4.0% decrease on a reported basis and a 2.8% decrease organically. Basic EPS before exceptional items came in at 95.3 cents, down 2.5% compared to the prior-year period. Financial performance was heavily impacted by softer performance in North America due to persistent pressure on disposable income affecting US Spirits, alongside continued weakness in Chinese white spirits within the Asia-Pacific market, which completely offset organic net sales growth across Europe, Latin America, and Africa.

Note: Diageo's FY'25 ended on June 30, 2025. H1 FY'26 ended on December 31, 2025.

Sale of East African Breweries Shareholding to Asahi Group Holdings

Diageo entered into an agreement to sell its entire shareholding in East African Breweries plc and its Kenyan spirits business to Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. for an estimated net proceeds of $2.3 billion, implying a 17x EBITDA multiple. This strategic divestment is expected to close in the second half of calendar year 2026 and will reduce Diageo's net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio by approximately 0.25x, supporting its broad operational commitment to strengthening the corporate balance sheet and increasing financial flexibility.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Diageo's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

North America Spirits


  • Premium Product Demand Resilience: Stretched consumer wallets in the US continue to pressure high-end spirits volumes as buyers adjust discretionary outlays. Trefis models a gradual stabilization in organic sales, but prolonged economic headwinds present a downside scenario to our near-term growth expectations.

  • Accelerate Cost Savings Agility: Management expanded its global productivity initiatives to achieve front-loaded supply chain and marketing efficiencies. If internal optimization goals continue to outpace expectations, operating margins could see significant upside relative to current Trefis estimates.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Diageo at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Diageo operates as a premier global leader in beverage alcohol, managing an elite collection of over 200 brands across spirits and beer categories distributed throughout more than 180 countries.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The North America division remains the single largest contributor to Diageo's long-term valuation due to its high concentration of premium spirits brands and historically strong operating margins.

Unrivaled Strategic Brand Portfolio

Diageo commands a powerful portfolio of globally leading trademarks, including Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Tanqueray, and Guinness, maintaining market share dominance and massive global consumer brand equity.

High-Margin Premiumization Moat

The company enjoys exceptional structural profitability driven by its structural focus on super-premium and ultra-premium spirits tiers, which serves to insulate its core operational cash flows over long-term economic cycles.

KEY TRENDS

Consumer Rebalancing Toward Value and Alternative Formats

Macroeconomic pressures are driving short-term trading down and slowing volume growth in traditional premium spirits, prompting beverage leaders to lean into high-potential ready-to-drink options to sustain consumer engagement.

Structural Capital Allocation and Leverage Reduction

Management is actively executing a comprehensive operational framework realignment, rebasing its dividend payout policy to 30-50% while pursuing high-multiple asset divestments to reduce net debt and maximize future balance sheet agility.