Delta Air Lines (DAL) Last Update 3/19/26
Related: LUV UAL UNP JBLU
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Delta Air Lines
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Other Businesses
50.5%
$54.46
Passenger
43.9%
$47.32
Cargo
5.7%
$6.10
Net Debt
21.3% $22.99
TOTAL
100%
$107.88
$84.89
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$68.37
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Delta Air Lines Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Other Businesses constitute 50% of the Trefis price estimate for Delta Air Lines's stock.
  2. Passenger constitutes 44% of the Trefis price estimate for Delta Air Lines's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year 2025

Delta reported Q4 2025 adjusted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 1.2% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $1.55, which slightly beat analyst estimates of $1.52. For the full year 2025, the company achieved record adjusted revenue of $58.3 billion (up 2.3%) and adjusted EPS of $5.82. Performance was primarily driven by a 7% growth in diversified, high-margin revenue streams—including premium cabins, loyalty programs, and Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) services—which now account for 60% of total revenue. Despite these records, Q4 results were tempered by a $200 million pre-tax profit impact due to a U.S. government shutdown.

Note: Delta Air Lines's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Major Widebody Fleet Expansion with Boeing

In January 2026, Delta announced a strategic agreement to purchase 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft, with options for 30 additional units, to be powered by GE Aerospace GEnx engines. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2031. This order marks a significant step in Delta's long-term fleet modernization strategy, aimed at replacing older, less efficient aircraft while expanding its international widebody capacity. This move reinforces Delta’s commitment to capturing high-yield long-haul demand and improving fuel efficiency across its global network.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Delta Air Lines' value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Premium and Loyalty Segments

  • Premium Cabin Dominance: In Q4 2025, premium revenue grew 9% to $5.7 billion, surpassing economy revenue for the first time in company history. As Delta continues to reconfigure its fleet to increase premium seat density, there is significant upside potential if high-income travel demand remains resilient against macro volatility.
  • American Express Remuneration: Remuneration from the American Express partnership grew 11% to $8.2 billion in 2025. Delta is targeting $10 billion in annual remuneration within the next few years. Success in hitting this milestone earlier than projected would drive high-margin cash flow beyond current Trefis estimates.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Delta Air Lines at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Delta Air Lines operates a leading global airline hub-and-spoke model, differentiating itself from low-cost carriers through a focus on premium services, operational reliability, and a robust loyalty ecosystem. The company generates revenue from passenger tickets, cargo, and its rapidly expanding ancillary businesses, including its co-branded credit card partnership with American Express and its Delta TechOps MRO division.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Delta's valuation is heavily supported by its shift toward a high-margin, brand-led business model that de-emphasizes commoditized air travel.

Diversified High-Margin Revenue Streams

Delta has successfully transitioned 60% of its total revenue to non-ticket or premium sources. This includes a massive $8.2 billion loyalty contribution and a 25% year-over-year growth in its MRO business, providing a buffer against the cyclicality of standard economy fares.

Industry-Leading Operational Reliability

Delta consistently ranks at the top of the industry for on-time performance and completion factor. This operational excellence allows the company to command a unit revenue premium of nearly 115% relative to the industry, attracting high-value corporate accounts and premium leisure travelers.

KEY TRENDS

The "Premiumization" of Air Travel

A structural shift is occurring where premium cabin growth is outstripping economy demand. Delta is capitalizing on this by modernizing its fleet with A321neo and A350 aircraft that feature larger premium footprints. This trend supports margin expansion even in a low-growth capacity environment.

Aggressive De-leveraging and Capital Allocation

In 2025, Delta reduced its debt by $2.6 billion, ending the year with a gross leverage of 2.4x. Management has prioritized debt reduction to reach a 2x target by year-end 2026, which is expected to lower interest expenses and potentially pave the way for increased share buybacks using its record free cash flow.