Chevron Corporation posted Q3 2025 adjusted earnings of approximately US$3.6 billion, or about US$1.85 per share, exceeding analysts’ expectations of US$1.68 per share. The quarter was bolstered by record production of around 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day—up significantly year-over-year —largely driven by the recently completed Hess Corporation acquisition. Operating cash flow (excluding working-capital movements) rose nearly 20% year-over-year to about US$9.9 billion, reflecting higher volumes and improving downstream/refining margins. While upstream earnings declined due to lower commodity prices, the downstream/refining segment saw a strong profit rebound, helping offset the weakness.
The company reaffirmed US$17–17.5 billion in 2025 capex, including Hess integration spending, while guiding production growth toward the top end of its 6–8% range as Hess assets continue to ramp. Management is targeting US$2–3 billion in structural cost savings by 2026, with Hess synergies expected to reach US$1.5 billion, helping lower its long-term breakeven to below $50 Brent for covering capex and dividends. Longer term, Chevron projects over 10% annual adjusted free-cash-flow growth through 2030, steady 2–3% production growth, and a capex run-rate of US$18–21 billion, reflecting a strategy that leans on efficient, diversified upstream growth and disciplined reinvestment.
Chevron completed its acquisition of Hess on July 18, after prevailing against Exxon Mobil in a long-running dispute that threatened to blow up the $53 billion deal.
Chevron’s Q2 2025 update highlighted smooth progress on the Hess acquisition, which adds a 30% stake in Guyana’s Stabroek Block—one of the world’s top offshore oil plays—and expands U.S. assets in the Bakken and Gulf of Mexico. Management expects $1 billion in annual synergies by 2027 and sees Guyana as a key long-term growth driver, with net production projected to exceed 360,000 barrels/day.
Below are key drivers of Chevron's value that present opportunities for an upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Chevron:
Chevron Corporation is the second-largest energy company in the U.S., after Exxon Mobil. The company manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates and provides administrative, financial, management, and technology support to the U.S. and international subsidiaries that engage in fully integrated petroleum, chemicals, and mining operations, as well as power generation and energy services.
Chevron has operations in 180 countries along with a strong network of retail gas stations under the Chevron, Texaco, and Caltex brands. The company is also involved in pursuing alternative energy solutions.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids production is by far the most valuable segment for Chevron for the following reasons:
Although the revenues attributed to crude oil and NGL production are less when compared to downstream businesses like refined product sales, the profitability is much higher.
In 2024, the company's average selling price for crude oil was around $73 per barrel while average production costs were around $9 per barrel. The EBITDA margins for crude oil and NGL production are usually higher than the EBITDA margin for refined product sales due to the fact that the cost of production per barrel is quite low for crude oil compared to its selling price.
Due to limited underlying growth in product demand, there has been a movement in recent years toward increasing the complexity of refineries rather than expanding capacity. In the U.S., no new refineries have been built since 1980, however, improvements in process design and technology have seen capacity increase by around 1% per year.
The early refineries that were established were mainly used to process light sweet crude resulting in an increase in demand for light sweet crude. As a result of higher oil prices in recent times, heavy crude oil is becoming more economically attractive. In addition, interest in the development of new cost-effective methods for extracting and transporting heavy crude oil, for refining into valuable light and middle distillate fuels, is also increasing.
Production from the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico grew 14% year-over-year to a record 992,000 boepd in Q4 2024. The asset is comprised of stacked formations enabling production from multiple geologic zones from single surface locations, staging the development for optimized capacity utilization of facilities and infrastructure. As one of the largest producers in the Permian Basin, Chevron continues to develop its advantaged portfolio of 1,780,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland basins in west Texas and southeast New Mexico and is expected to achieve one million barrels of net oil-equivalent production per day in 2025.
