Capital One (COF) Last Update 5/27/26
Related: BAC C GS UBS
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Capital One
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Credit Cards
69.7%
$143
TOTAL
100%
$206
$205.87
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$204
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Capital One Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Credit Cards constitute 70% of the Trefis price estimate for Capital One's stock.
  2. Consumer Loans constitute 20% of the Trefis price estimate for Capital One's stock.
  3. Commercial Loans constitute 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Capital One's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Capital One reported total net revenue of $15.23 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 52% substantial increase year-over-year driven heavily by consolidation benefits from its acquisition of Discover Financial Services, despite a 2% sequential decline from the previous quarter. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.34, while adjusted EPS stood at $4.42, climbing from an adjusted EPS of $4.06 in the prior year's quarter but missing the consensus analyst target of $4.51. The primary drivers for the quarter included strong underlying deposit growth and optimized marketing spend, offset by ongoing integration costs and provision expenses.

Note: Capital One's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Integration of Discover Network and Platforms

Capital One advanced its historic acquisition of Discover Financial Services, making significant operational strides in migrating Discover's core debit network and shifting card originations to its primary technology platform. This massive integration effort introduces specialized amortization expenses of $477 million and integration costs of $415 million in the first quarter alone, impacting baseline earnings. The ongoing synergy plan aims to create a highly scaled payment network capable of directly competing with global payment giants, positioning Capital One as a vertically integrated credit card issuer and processor.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Capital One's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Net Interest Margin and Credit Performance

  • Net Interest Margin Fluctuations: Capital One's net interest margin reached 7.87% in the first quarter, representing a 39 basis point sequential contraction caused by a lower day count, higher average cash balances, and seasonal credit card paydowns. If loan yields expand faster than interest-bearing deposit costs in upcoming quarters, it could provide a 4% upside over Trefis baseline estimates, while persistent deposit competition represents a critical downside risk.
  • Credit Losses and Reserves Balance: The provision for credit losses was reported at $4.07 billion, consisting of $3.85 billion in net charge-offs alongside a $230 million loan reserve build, bringing the total portfolio allowance coverage ratio up to 5.28%. Should asset quality deterioration stall out earlier than factored into current projections, lowered credit cost requirements will act as an earnings catalyst to push valuations higher.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Capital One at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Capital One operates as a technology-focused financial services holding company, offering credit cards, auto loans, commercial banking, and retail consumer deposit products across digital and physical distribution networks.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Credit Card division serves as the company's leading source of value due to its industry-leading asset yields and deep market penetration among premium and subprime consumer cohorts.

Massive Scaled Purchase Volume Position

Capital One commands an incredibly robust market share in domestic credit card lending, enhanced by the addition of Discover's loan book, pushing its ending loan balance up to $270.6 billion. This enormous scale yields recurring interchange fees and interest income that generate steady operating cash flows through varied macroeconomic cycles.

Data Analytics and Proparietary Underwriting Moat

The company maintains an advanced cloud-native technology infrastructure that powers sophisticated proprietary underwriting and customized risk-pricing algorithms. This digital edge permits optimal credit matching and nimble marketing adjustments, enabling higher customer lifetime values compared to traditional regional banking competitors.

KEY TRENDS

Regulatory Scrutiny on Late Fees and Capital Ratios

The broader consumer lending landscape faces intense regulatory oversight regarding credit card late fee caps and shifting capital framework demands. Capital One has managed this shifting terrain by fortifying its capital cushion, lifting its Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio to a healthy 14.4% to ensure structural resilience.

Digital Banking Migration and Cost Rationalization

Consumer behavior continues to rapidly shift toward cloud-based mobile banking platforms, allowing major financial institutions to optimize their brick-and-mortar footprints. Capital One is capitalising on this structural change, securing an operational efficiency ratio of 55.57% through a 9% reduction in total non-interest expenses.