Chipotle’s third-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations but underscored persistent demand headwinds. Adjusted earnings came in at 29 cents per share, matching analyst forecasts, while revenue rose 7.5% to $3 billion, just shy of the $3.03 billion consensus.
Net income totaled $382.1 million, or 29 cents per share, compared with $387.4 million, or 28 cents per share, a year earlier. Growth was driven by continued expansion, with 84 new company-owned and two licensed international restaurants opened during the quarter. Same-store sales inched up 0.3%, reversing a prior decline, though gains were entirely price-driven, reflecting a 1.1% increase in average check as traffic weakened further.
Management said heavier marketing spend and new menu items such as carne asada and red chimichurri helped steady performance, but demand trends remained sluggish into October. CFO Adam Rymer noted that while these efforts provided a short-term lift, underlying traffic softness persisted throughout the quarter.
Chipotle is expecting its full-year same-store sales to shrink by a low-single digit percentage in fiscal 2025. That’s a big change from February, when the burrito chain was projecting same-store sales would grow by a low- to mid-single digit percentage.
Chipotle reiterated confidence in its value positioning and said it will resist broad-based discounting despite slowing visits. Executives acknowledged that consumers increasingly view the brand alongside fast-casual rivals with higher average prices, underscoring the need to reinforce its affordability message.
To reignite growth, the company plans to sharpen its focus on in-store operations, digital engagement, marketing, and menu innovation. Looking ahead to 2026, Chipotle expects to open 350 to 370 new restaurants, including 10 to 15 international units operated by partners. The company is accelerating global expansion through new partnerships, including a joint venture with Korea-based SPC Group and development agreements across the Middle East and Latin America.
Below are key drivers of Chipotle's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Chipotle:
Number of Restaurants : The company is still able to add new restaurants, and increase its in-restaurant sales - illustrating that the additions are not cannibalizing existing locations. The company saw the addition of net 59 stores between the end of 2022 and 2024. We continue to expect an average of 5% growth in stores each year over our forecast period.
Average Revenue Per Restaurant : We expect the company's revenues to grow at a steady pace over our forecast period, with average restaurant sales growing at around 6% over our forecast period.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Chipotle at the top of the page.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a chain of restaurants operating in the casual dining segment, which specializes in serving Mexican cuisine. As of Dec 31, 2024, the company operated 3,644 throughout the United States and 82 international Chipotle restaurants. Additionally, it had three international licensed restaurants. Notably, 257 of the 304 new locations added in FY 2024 feature a Chipotlane, a dedicated lane for digital order pickup, which also contributes to its margin expansion.
Chipotle's menu comprises Mexican fare with a few things that can be mixed and matched with various sauces and ingredients such as salsa, guacamole, cheese, and lettuce, to make one's dishes. The menu primarily consists of Tacos, Burritos, Salads, and Burrito Bowls (Burritos without the Tortilla).
Chipotle operates on the "Food with Integrity" principle, offering naturally raised pork, chicken, and beef. Naturally raised implies that the animals are raised in open pastures and are fed on a purely vegetarian diet without any added hormones or antibiotics.
Chipotle's objective is to provide a fine dining experience in a quick-service setup and to provide quality food and ambiance without having the customer wait too long. Some Chipotle restaurants can serve up to 300 customers an hour.
Chipotle competes with restaurants in the casual dining segment such as Applebee's, Qdoba, Taco Bell, and Chili's, among others. It also competes with fast-food restaurants such as McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, and KFC.
Chipotle's business is wholly dependent on company-operated restaurants, which explains the significance of this division to its stock.
Chipotle enjoys a higher average spend per customer than most of its competitors, given its high quality of food. For example, in McDonald's, the average spend per customer is around $9, whereas the corresponding figure in Chipotle is about $11-12. The company has successfully marketed itself as a restaurant serving natural, hygienic, and organic food in an upscale ambiance, for which the consumers are often ready to pay a slight premium.
Another reason why the company enjoys a higher average spend per customer is that it has restaurants only in developed countries, where the average spend is usually higher than in developing countries. Most of the fast-food restaurant chains have a mix of restaurants in developed and developing countries, which has a lower effect on the overall spending per customer.
Consumers have become more health-conscious, and there is an increase in demand for natural and healthier food. Using its 'Food with Integrity campaign, Chipotle has aggressively marketed itself as a restaurant using only naturally raised meat.
Chipotle's international growth story is still in its early stages, with less than 50 locations established across the U.K., France, and Germany, and a recent entry into Kuwait. The global success of companies like McDonald's, which operates over 40,000 restaurants worldwide, underscores the significant potential for Chipotle's international expansion.
After outperforming much of the restaurant industry in 2024, Chipotle is now feeling the effects of a sluggish consumer environment. The chain had previously been shielded from spending pullbacks thanks to its higher-income customer base, but that cushion is wearing thin. Consumers across income levels are visiting less frequently, with those earning under $100,000—roughly 40% of Chipotle’s customers—cutting back further amid ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation. The slowdown is particularly pronounced among diners aged 25 to 35, a group where Chipotle has traditionally over-indexed compared to the broader restaurant industry. Rising unemployment, renewed student loan payments, and slower wage growth after adjusting for inflation are weighing on these younger consumers, leading to fewer restaurant visits.
