CME Group (CME) Last Update 7/31/26
Related: NDAQ ICE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
CME Group
$307.27
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$270
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

CME Group Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Clearing & Transaction Fee constitutes 78% of the Trefis price estimate for CME Group's stock.
  2. Market Data constitutes 15% of the Trefis price estimate for CME Group's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q2 FY'26

Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported second quarter FY'26 revenue of $1.71 billion, representing a 1% year-over-year increase, driven by a record $238 million in market data and information services revenue. Net income reached $1.04 billion with diluted earnings per share of $2.88 (adjusted EPS of $2.99, up from $2.81 in Q2 FY'25), supported by strong average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts.

Note: Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

Cloud Transformation and Derivatives Innovation

Chicago Mercantile Exchange continues to advance its strategic cloud partnership with Google Cloud to modernize trading infrastructure while launching new derivatives products, including 24/7 cryptocurrency options, Single-Stock futures, and expanded U.S. Treasury clearing capabilities to enhance capital efficiency for global market participants.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Chicago Mercantile Exchange's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Clearing and Market Data


  • Average Daily Trading Volume: Elevated macro volatility across interest rates, energy, and equity indices drives contract volume growth, directly expanding clearing fee revenue above baseline Trefis expectations.

  • Market Data Monetization: Expansion of proprietary data feeds and analytics subscriptions provides high-margin recurring revenue, offering downside protection during lower-volatility trading periods.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Chicago Mercantile Exchange at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Chicago Mercantile Exchange operates the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, offering futures and options contracts across interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, and digital assets.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Chicago Mercantile Exchange derives the majority of its valuation from its Clearing and Transaction Fees segment, which delivers exceptional profit margins due to a scale-driven operating model.

Monopolistic Market Position in Financial Derivatives

The exchange maintains an unmatched product ecosystem across interest rate futures, benchmark equity indices, and physical commodities, benefiting from deep liquidity pools and network effects that create high barriers to entry.

Vertically Integrated Clearing House Moat

By operating its own clearing house, the company captures both execution and post-trade processing fees while providing clients with significant portfolio margining efficiencies, reinforcing client stickiness and pricing power.

KEY TRENDS

Global Interest Rate Volatility and Hedging Demand

Uncertain monetary policies and shifting yield curves globally drive sustained hedging demand across Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) and U.S. Treasury derivative products.

Migration to Regulated Digital and Cloud Infrastructure

Institutional adoption of regulated crypto derivatives and the migration of core trading infrastructure to cloud systems position the exchange for lower long-term tech overhead and expanded 24/7 market access.