Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Company
VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- Steelmaking constitutes 95% of the Trefis price estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Q3 2025 Earnings
- For Q3 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs posted revenue of about $4.7 billion, up by 3% from a year-ago quarter. Net loss came in at $234 million. The company reported record quarterly steel shipments at 4.0 million tons.
- Cleveland-Cliffs Push Into Steel Making
- In 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs acquired ArcelorMittal USA and AK Steel and transformed itself from an iron ore mining company to a vertically integrated steel producer. The company reported $18.5 billion in steelmaking revenues and 15.6 million tons of steel shipments in 2024. With a product portfolio including hot-rolled steel, cold-rolled steel, coated steel, stainless steel, and plates, the company caters to a wide customer base in the U.S.
- Imposition of tariffs
- Tariffs have largely benefited Cleveland-Cliffs by shielding it from low-cost steel imports, allowing the company to maintain stronger pricing and boost domestic market share, especially after its acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA. The tariffs reduce foreign competition and support stronger pricing power and market share for Cleveland-Cliffs, which has publicly praised the expanded tariff coverage on derivative steel products. However, the benefit comes with risks: if tariffs are rolled back or if they drive up costs for downstream industries like autos and construction, steel demand could weaken, offsetting the gains. Overall, the current tariff environment remains a near-term positive for CLF, but its sustainability depends on continued policy support and steady end-market demand.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Cliffs' value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.:
Steel Shipments (Tons)
- Total Steel Shipments: Steel Shipments rose from around 3.8 million tons in 2020 to 15.6 million tons in 2024. Trefis expects the metric to grow to about 18 million by the end of our review period. However, if shipments grow to about 20 million tons, there could be an upside of about 10% to our price estimate. On the other side, if shipments remain flat at about 16 million tons at the end of our review period, there could be a downside of about 10% to our price estimate.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. at the top of the page.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel producer and the largest manufacturer of iron ore pellets in North America. The company's operations are vertically integrated - spanning from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron, and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing. Cliffs is now North America's largest steel supplier to the automotive industry.
SOURCES OF VALUE
The North American Iron Ore division is the company's only reported segment currently and is the most valuable segment. The company gets its revenues from vertically integrated iron ore and steel manufacturing operations. CLF's major customers are steel companies and industrial customers - mainly automobile players. Long-term contracts with these customers ensure the sale of a substantial portion of the firm's mineral production.
