VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- North American Gold Mines (Barrick Nevada, Pueblo Viejo Mine, Dominican Republic) constitute 60% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
- Other Gold Mines constitute 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
- Turquoise Ridge Gold Mine constitutes 9% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Q3 2025 Earnings
Barrick Gold posted a strong set of Q3 2025 results, with revenue rising to $4.1 billion, up about 23% year-over-year, driven by higher realized gold prices and improved sales volumes. Net earnings jumped to $1.3 billion, while adjusted earnings came in at $982 million, marking a sharp improvement from the prior year. Operating cash flow surged to $2.4 billion, with free cash flow reaching $1.5 billion, reflecting robust margins and disciplined cost control. The company also announced a dividend hike and expanded buyback program, supported by strong gold prices and cash generation.
- Surge in gold prices
Gold prices have risen from levels of under $1,850 in October 2023 to levels of over $2,500 as of early October 2024 and $4,000+ in November 2025. The yellow metal is benefiting from easing global inflation, geopolitical headwinds as well as expectations that the U.S. Fed could cut interest rates multiple times this year. The yellow metal remains buoyed by easing global inflation, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing expectations of multiple interest‐rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Barrick Gold's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the Trefis price estimate for the company's stock:
Gold shipments from Barrick Nevada
- Barrick Nevada Shipments:
Shipments from Barrick's Nevada operations have declined from almost 4 million ounces in 2019 to under 2.9 million ounces in 2024 due to the impact of planned maintenance at some sites. We expect the metric to stabilize at about 3.2 million ounces by 2031.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) is one of the world's largest gold mining companies and is headquartered in Toronto. The company holds ownership interests in thirteen producing gold mines located in Argentina, Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Dominican Republic, Mali, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and the United States. Barrick's three copper mines are located in Zambia, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. As of December 31, 2024, Barrick’s proven and probable gold reserves stood at 89 million ounces.
SOURCES OF VALUE
Gold as the primary source of revenue
Gold mining is the most important division for Barrick Gold in terms of revenues and profits. In 2024, the company generated around $12.75 billion in revenues from the sale of gold and $855 million from copper sales.
KEY TRENDS
Rising demand for gold from emerging economies
Demand for gold is expected to be quite robust from major emerging economies. Rapidly growing middle-class populations and rising incomes in these countries, particularly China and India — the world's largest gold consumers — are expected to result in sustained jewelry and investment demand for gold.
Barrick is bolstering copper production
Barrick is moving to scale up its copper production in a big way given that the metal industry is expected to see higher demand as the global economy moves toward green energy solutions and electric vehicles. Barrick could also have an edge over other miners in the copper space, considering that copper often occurs alongside gold in large-scale deposits.
