VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- North American Gold Mines (Barrick Nevada, Pueblo Viejo Mine, Dominican Republic) constitute 61% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
- Other Gold Mines constitute 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
- Copper Mines constitute 11% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Q3 2025 Earnings
Barrick Gold followed up its strong Q3 with an even better Q4 2025 performance, capping the year on a high note as revenue climbed to about $6.0 billion, driven by seasonally stronger sales volumes and sustained strength in realized gold prices. Net earnings surged to roughly $2.4 billion, while adjusted earnings rose to around $1.75 billion, reflecting operating leverage and continued cost discipline across key assets. Operating cash flow increased to nearly $2.7 billion, with free cash flow of about $1.6 billion, allowing the company to further strengthen its balance sheet and accelerate shareholder returns.
- Surge in gold prices
As of mid-February 2026, gold remains firmly elevated near multi-year highs, trading above roughly $5,000 per ounce on major markets (with prices seen around $5,000–$5,100/oz in recent sessions) amid volatile trading and safe-haven demand. The yellow metal continues to be underpinned by expectations of easing U.S. monetary policy, persistent inflation concerns, robust central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Barrick Gold's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the Trefis price estimate for the company's stock:
Gold shipments from Barrick Nevada
- Barrick Nevada Shipments:
Shipments from Barrick's Nevada operations have declined from almost 4 million ounces in 2019 to under 2.9 million ounces in 2024 due to the impact of planned maintenance at some sites. It fell further to 2.75 million ounces. We expect the metric to stabilize at about 3 million ounces by 2031.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) is one of the world's largest gold mining companies and is headquartered in Toronto. The company holds ownership interests in thirteen producing gold mines located in Argentina, Canada, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Dominican Republic, Mali, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and the United States. Barrick's three copper mines are located in Zambia, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. As of December 31, 2025, Barrick's proven and probable gold reserves stood at 85 million ounces.
SOURCES OF VALUE
Gold as the primary source of revenue
Gold mining is the most important division for Barrick Gold in terms of revenues and profits. In 2025, the company generated around $15.47 billion in revenues from the sale of gold and $1.48 billion from copper sales.
KEY TRENDS
Rising demand for gold from emerging economies
Demand for gold is expected to be quite robust from major emerging economies. Rapidly growing middle-class populations and rising incomes in these countries, particularly China and India - the world's largest gold consumers - are expected to result in sustained jewelry and investment demand for gold.
Barrick is bolstering copper production
Barrick is moving to scale up its copper production in a big way given that the metal industry is expected to see higher demand as the global economy moves toward green energy solutions and electric vehicles. Barrick could also have an edge over other miners in the copper space, considering that copper often occurs alongside gold in large-scale deposits.
