Barrick Mining (B) Last Update 5/18/26
Related: NEM WPM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Barrick Mining
$56.95
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$36.45
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Barrick Mining Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. North American Gold Mines (Barrick Nevada, Pueblo Viejo Mine, Dominican Republic) constitute 59% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
  2. Other Gold Mines constitute 16% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.
  3. Copper Mines constitute 15% of the Trefis price estimate for Barrick Mining's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 FY'2026

Barrick Mining reported exceptionally strong results for the first quarter of 2026, with revenue reaching $5.22 billion, a 67% increase year-over-year. Net earnings surged to $1.60 billion ($0.96 per share), while adjusted EPS jumped 180% to $0.98, significantly outperforming market expectations. The primary drivers were a 66% increase in realized gold prices and gold production of 719,000 ounces, which exceeded the company's own guidance. Copper production also rose 11% to 49,000 tonnes. Operational efficiency was evident as the attributable EBITDA margin expanded to 66%, supported by the successful ramp-up of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine and strong performance at Nevada Gold Mines.

Note: Barrick Mining's FY'2025 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'2026 ended on March 31, 2026.

North American Gold Assets IPO and $3B Buyback

Barrick confirmed it is proceeding with a strategic IPO of its North American gold assets, expected to be completed by year-end 2026. This move aims to unlock value from its premier Nevada-based holdings and provide a distinct valuation for its most stable jurisdiction. Additionally, the board authorized a massive $3.0 billion share repurchase program over the next 12 months, signaling high confidence in the company's free cash flow generation, which reached $1.21 billion in the first quarter alone.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Barrick Mining's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Gold Mining Operations

  • Realized Gold Pricing: Barrick's earnings remain highly sensitive to spot gold prices, which reached historic levels in early 2026. While Trefis estimates assume a long-term stabilization of prices, sustained geopolitical risk and central bank buying could keep realized prices above $2,500 per ounce, providing significant upside to net margins and free cash flow.
  • Tier One Asset Production: Production at Nevada Gold Mines and the Loulo-Gounkoto complex exceeded expectations this quarter. If Barrick maintains this production beat throughout 2026 against its guidance of 2.9–3.25 million ounces, unit costs (AISC) will likely trend toward the lower end of estimates, driving earnings surprises.

Copper Growth Segment

  • Lumwana Super Pit Expansion: This project is critical to Barrick's goal of doubling copper output by 2028. Construction is currently on time and budget. Successful execution represents a major pivot toward "green metals," potentially re-rating the stock from a pure gold play to a diversified mining major with higher valuation multiples.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Barrick Mining at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Barrick Mining operates as one of the world's largest gold and copper producers, managing a portfolio of "Tier One" assets across North America, Africa, and Latin America. The business model is focused on high-margin, long-life mines where the company can maintain a low all-in sustaining cost (AISC) relative to the industry average. By leveraging its scale and technical expertise, Barrick generates substantial free cash flow that is distributed through a performance-linked dividend framework and opportunistic share buybacks.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Barrick's value is primarily derived from its ownership of the world's most productive and low-cost gold mining jurisdictions.

Nevada Gold Mines Dominance

The Nevada Gold Mines joint venture represents the single largest gold-producing complex in the world. Barrick's 61.5% interest and operatorship of this asset provide a massive, stable production base in a low-risk jurisdiction, characterized by high-grade reserves that ensure profitability even during cyclical downturns in gold prices.

Copper Strategic Pivot

Barrick is aggressively expanding its copper footprint through the Lumwana expansion and the Reko Diq project. This diversification into copper provides a natural hedge and allows the company to capture growing demand from the global energy transition and AI infrastructure, segments where copper supply remains structurally constrained.

KEY TRENDS

Gold as a Macro Safe Haven

Continued geopolitical instability and persistent global inflation have cemented gold's role as a primary reserve asset for central banks and institutional investors. Barrick is positioned to capture the full upside of this trend through its high "beta" to gold prices, as seen in the 67% revenue jump during the most recent quarter.

Transition to Diversified Mining Powerhouse

The company is intentionally shifting its brand and portfolio away from being a "gold-only" miner. By scaling copper production to represent a significant portion of its EBITDA, Barrick is attempting to reduce its vulnerability to gold price volatility and align itself with the long-term thematic growth of electrification.

Aggressive Capital Return Strategy

A major trend for Barrick in 2026 is the prioritization of shareholder returns. With the $3 billion buyback and a base-plus-variable dividend policy, management is focused on demonstrating that the mining sector can compete with other industries for income-oriented capital.