Alaska Air Group (ALK) Last Update 7/2/26
Related: LUV DAL UAL UNP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Alaska Air Group
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Passenger
64.9%
$77.68
Cargo and Other
35.1%
$42.04
Net Debt
47.9% $57.30
TOTAL
100%
$119.73
$62.43
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$40.74
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Alaska Air Group Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Passenger constitutes 65% of the Trefis price estimate for Alaska Air Group's stock.
  2. Cargo and Other constitutes 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Alaska Air Group's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: First Quarter Fiscal 2026

Alaska Air Group reported total revenue of $3.30 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 5.2% increase year-over-year, driven by strong premium and corporate travel demand. However, the company posted an adjusted loss per share of -$1.68, missing analyst estimates of -$1.61, primarily due to elevated crude and refining fuel prices which averaged $2.98 per gallon during the period along with temporary capacity headwinds.

Note: Alaska Air Group's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Shane Tackett Promoted to President to Drive Growth and Integration

Alaska Air Group announced the appointment of Shane Tackett as President effective June 29, 2026, expanding his role from Chief Financial Officer to oversee the commercial organization as well. This leadership transition aims to accelerate the company's financial and strategic initiatives under its Alaska Accelerate plan, specifically focusing on the ongoing commercial integration of Hawaiian Airlines and network optimization.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Alaska Air Group's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Mainline Aviation

  • Passenger Fuel Costs: Higher refining and crude oil prices drove first-quarter fuel costs to $2.98 per gallon and caused the company to suspend its full-year 2026 guidance due to near-term volatility. If fuel prices continue to surge, it will significantly impact mainline margins below current Trefis estimates, whereas stabilization could restore profitability.
  • Premium and Managed Corporate Demand: Premium revenue rose 8% and managed corporate travel grew 19% year-over-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong customer loyalty and network expansions like the Seattle-Tokyo route. Sustained high-yield demand represents a meaningful upside to Trefis capacity and revenue per available seat mile projections.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Alaska Air Group at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Alaska Air Group operates a prominent passenger airline network primarily concentrated on the West Coast of the United States, generating revenue through scheduled mainline and regional passenger transportation, cargo services, and its high-margin passenger loyalty program.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The mainline passenger segment remains the primary engine of value for the company due to its extensive West Coast hub dominance and high-yielding premium passenger base.

West Coast Hub Dominance

Alaska Air Group maintains an industry-leading position and significant competitive moat across major Pacific Northwest hubs, including Seattle and Portland, providing a dense, sticky customer network that insulates it from legacy carrier competition.

High-Yielding Loyalty and Premium Segments

The airline's recently enhanced Atmos Rewards program and expanded premium cabin configurations continue to deliver high-margin revenue streams that outperform standard economy fares and protect cash flows during economic soft patches.

KEY TRENDS

Fuel Price Volatility and Guidance Suspension

The global aviation sector faces severe headwinds from fluctuating crude prices and refining margins, which has limited earnings visibility and led Alaska Air Group to proactively trim capacity and suspend full-year earnings guidance until energy markets stabilize.

Capacity Rationalization and Fleet Modernization

The company is actively focusing on network optimization and disciplined capacity management, pulling back underperforming routes while accelerating fleet upgrades and integration synergies following its acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines.