AIG (AIG) Last Update 3/12/26
Related: MET HIG PRU TRV
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
AIG
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
General Insurance
100.0%
$91.07
TOTAL
100%
$91.08
$91.08
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$76.40
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

AIG Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. General Insurance constitutes 100% of the Trefis price estimate for AIG's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025

American International Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $6.97 billion, representing a 1.4% increase over the prior year period. Adjusted after-tax income per diluted share reached $1.96 for the quarter, marking a 51% year-over-year increase, while full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share surged 43% to $7.09. This strong performance was primarily driven by exceptional underwriting results in the General Insurance segment, which generated $2.3 billion in full-year underwriting income, alongside an 8% increase in adjusted net investment income reflecting higher yields on the fixed maturity portfolio.

Note: AIG's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Successful Deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial

AIG achieved a major strategic milestone by the end of 2025, further reducing its ownership stake in Corebridge Financial to 10.1% through secondary offerings. This deconsolidation completes AIG's transformation from a complex financial conglomerate into a streamlined, pure-play global property and casualty insurer. The proceeds from these divestitures have fortified the balance sheet and fueled an aggressive capital return program, allowing AIG to return $6.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the course of the year.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of AIG's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

General Insurance

  • Combined Ratio Improvement: AIG achieved a highly profitable accident year combined ratio, as adjusted, of 88.3% for the full year 2025. This reflects stringent underwriting discipline and optimized reinsurance structures. If management continues to expand margins beyond the Trefis estimate, there is significant upside potential for the stock, whereas unexpected spikes in catastrophe losses or casualty reserve charges pose downside risks.
  • Commercial Lines Pricing and Retention: Global commercial net premiums written grew by 3% to $17.4 billion in 2025, supported by strong international new business growth and mid-single-digit rate increases in North America. An upside scenario exists if the commercial hard market persists longer than anticipated, allowing AIG to compound top-line growth without sacrificing underwriting quality.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for AIG at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

American International Group is a leading global insurance organization providing a wide range of property and casualty insurance and financial services to commercial and individual customers. Following the separation of its life and retirement business, the company's core business model is entirely focused on underwriting global commercial risks, North American personal lines, and specialized excess and surplus offerings.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The General Insurance segment, specifically the Global Commercial division, serves as the most critical component of the company's valuation due to its massive scale, specialized technical underwriting capabilities, and extensive global distribution network.

Dominance in Global Commercial and Specialty Markets

AIG maintains a leading market position in underwriting high-barrier specialty lines such as aviation, marine, energy, and complex casualty. Its capacity to structure and lead large, multi-national insurance programs for Fortune 500 corporations provides a significant competitive moat that is extremely difficult for smaller regional insurers to replicate.

Expansive Surplus Lines Presence via Lexington Insurance

Through its Lexington Insurance Company subsidiary, AIG operates one of the largest surplus lines insurers in the United States. This specialized positioning allows AIG to capture high-margin premiums on non-standard and hard-to-place risks that traditional admitted markets typically avoid, offering a resilient source of profitability during periods of increased market volatility.

KEY TRENDS

Elevated Interest Rate Environment Benefiting Investment Income

The sustained higher interest rate environment has allowed AIG to reinvest its massive fixed-income portfolio at significantly higher yields than its maturing bonds. This dynamic drove an 8% year-over-year increase in adjusted net investment income in 2025 and is expected to provide a persistent tailwind to the company's bottom line through 2026.

Aggressive Capital Return Strategy and Efficiency Gains

AIG has aggressively pivoted its strategy toward maximizing shareholder value through capital returns and operational efficiency. By retiring shares and optimizing its cost structure, the company achieved a core operating return on equity of 11.1% in 2025. Management continues to target further expense ratio reductions through the deployment of generative artificial intelligence and the streamlining of its pure-play organizational structure.