ADP (ADP) Last Update 5/27/26
Related: IBM PAYX
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
ADP
$264.13
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$272
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
  1. Download Trefis Report

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

ADP Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Payroll Processing constitutes 62% of the Trefis price estimate for ADP's stock.
  2. Client Funds Interest constitutes 25% of the Trefis price estimate for ADP's stock.
  3. HR Outsourcing & Other Services constitute 13% of the Trefis price estimate for ADP's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q3 Fiscal Year 2026

Automatic Data Processing delivered a steady performance for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with total revenues increasing 7% year-over-year to $5.94 billion, matching street expectations. The growth was primarily driven by standard expansion in the Employer Services division alongside a 14% increase in interest on funds held for clients to $403.9 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 10% year-over-year to $3.37, beating the consensus estimate of $3.28 due to structural operational efficiency gains that drove an 80 basis point expansion in adjusted EBIT margins to 30.2%.

Note: ADP's FY'25 ended on June 30, 2025. Q3 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Launch of Comprehensive ADP WorkForce Suite Across Core HCM Platforms

ADP completed the deep technical integration and full commercial deployment of its top-rated employee scheduling and workforce management technology, rebranding it as the unified ADP WorkForce Suite. Following the prior acquisition of WorkForce Software, this global deployment embeds predictive analytical modeling, automated compliance features, and labor routing tools directly into ADP Workforce Now, ADP Lyric HCM, and ADP Global Payroll across more than 140 operational countries.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of ADP's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Employer Services


  • Client Retention Stability: Retention inside the Employer Services division reached historic highs during the quarter. If client loyalty remains above standard baseline rates through continuous product software upgrades, revenue growth will exceed conservative Trefis models, whereas a compression in small business retention targets represents a downside risk factor.

  • Interest Income Capture: The average client funds portfolio balance surged 9% to $48.3 billion, yielding an optimized average return rate of 3.3%. Higher structural yields on client capital balances provide an immediate upside lever to operating income compared to current Trefis net financial interest projections.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for ADP at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

ADP provides cloud-based human capital management solutions, encompassing automated payroll processing, comprehensive benefits administration, talent procurement, time tracking, and human resources outsourcing solutions to diverse business clients worldwide.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Employer Services operating segment serves as the main structural driver of enterprise profitability and equity valuation.

Entrenched Client Relationship Footprint

ADP maintains an massive installed base serving over one million corporate clients worldwide, which generates predictable recurring subscription fee cash flows. The extensive regulatory compliance reporting burden paired with deep payroll system linkages creates immense operational switching costs for corporate managers looking to change providers.

Float Portfolio Financial Engineering

The enterprise structurally utilizes its client funds float strategy, collecting payroll capital obligations prior to distribution and reinvesting this collective cash into highly secured fixed-income securities. This corporate cash flow framework allows the entity to convert micro interest rate increases into pure operating profit without escalating software overhead.

KEY TRENDS

Widespread Artificial Intelligence Adoption inside Payroll Platforms

Corporate organizations are actively deploying cloud software tools equipped with automated artificial intelligence agents to streamline baseline workforce schedules and eliminate manual error factors. ADP is directly responding by embedding its proprietary ADP Assist payroll engine across enterprise markets to automate immediate anomaly resolution.

Escalating Multijurisdictional Compliance Mandates

Labor regulations, local compliance expectations, and state-by-state wage visibility rules are expanding quickly on a global scale. This regulatory layer increases operational burdens on internal personnel teams, driving small and medium corporate entities to outsource fundamental human resource processes to third-party providers.