Apple (AAPL) Last Update 3/12/26
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Apple
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Services
46.9%
$119
iPhone
34.9%
$89
Mac
5.4%
$14
iPad
4.5%
$11
TOTAL
100%
$255
$254.52
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$280
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Apple Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Services constitute 47% of the Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock.
  2. iPhone constitutes 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Apple reported record-breaking results for the quarter ended December 27, 2025, with revenue of $143.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached an all-time high of $2.84, up 19% from the previous year, significantly beating market expectations. Performance was primarily driven by a 23% surge in iPhone revenue to $85.3 billion and a 14% rise in Services revenue to $30 billion. Strong margins and robust demand in Greater China, where sales jumped 38%, offset minor declines in Mac and Wearables revenue.

Note: Apple's FY'25 ended on September 27, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on December 27, 2025.

Strategic Expansion into Budget Segments and AI

In March 2026, Apple executed a major strategic pivot by launching the MacBook Neo at a breakthrough $599 price point, targeting the education and entry-level laptop markets. Simultaneously, the company introduced the iPhone 17e and refreshed the MacBook Air with the new M5 chip. A significant strategic admission accompanied these launches: Apple is collaborating with Google to integrate custom Gemini models into its Siri assistant, aiming to close the generative AI gap while maintaining its privacy-first on-device processing architecture.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Apple's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Services Segment

  • Monetization of Apple Intelligence: The rollout of advanced AI features across the installed base of 2.5 billion active devices creates a massive opportunity for premium subscription tiers. If Apple successfully transitions Siri into a paid "Pro" assistant, it could drive Services revenue growth well beyond current Trefis estimates of 14-15%.
  • Ecosystem Stickiness and Retention: With a record 92% retention rate, the Services segment's 75% gross margin provides a stable valuation floor. Any acceleration in ARPU through integrated AI tools in Apple Music and Podcasts presents clear upside potential for the company's overall margin profile.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Apple at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Apple operates a vertically integrated business model that controls the entire user experience from custom silicon (A-series and M-series chips) to proprietary operating systems and a sprawling services ecosystem. This "walled garden" approach allows Apple to command premium pricing and maintain high switching costs for its user base.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The primary source of Apple's valuation stems from its ability to convert hardware buyers into lifelong service subscribers.

Ecosystem Lock-In and High Switching Costs

Apple's greatest competitive advantage is the seamless integration between its hardware and software, creating a network effect where the value of owning multiple Apple devices exceeds the sum of their individual parts. This creates switching costs that analysts estimate can exceed $10,000 for a fully integrated household.

Vertical Integration and Custom Silicon

By designing its own processors, Apple achieves industry-leading performance-per-watt and cost efficiencies that competitors relying on third-party silicon cannot match. This self-sufficiency protects gross margins and allows for tighter optimization of AI workloads directly on-device.

KEY TRENDS

The Edge AI Revolution

The industry is shifting from cloud-based AI to "Edge AI," where processing occurs directly on consumer hardware to enhance privacy and reduce latency. Apple is positioned to lead this trend due to the massive neural engine capabilities of its latest A19 and M5 chips, though it faces pressure to accelerate software delivery to match competitors.

Manufacturing and Supply Chain Diversification

Apple is aggressively reducing its reliance on Chinese manufacturing by expanding operations in India and Vietnam and launching a $600 billion American Manufacturing Program. This shift aims to mitigate geopolitical risks and tariff exposure while capturing growth in the emerging Indian middle class.