INTRODUCTION
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF), a Delaware corporation established in 1994 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, is a diversified financial services holding company with banking and non-banking subsidiaries. Capital One Financial Corporation and its subsidiaries offer a broad array of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through branches, the internet, and other distribution channels. [Source: 10-K Filing]
CAPITAL ONE'S BUSINESS MODEL AND STOCK
This section captures the key components of Capital One's business model, and presents the Trefis estimate for Capital One's stock
What's the performance and potential for Capital One's stock, its earnings and its revenue?
We estimate the fair value for Capital One's stock to be $100 based on our EPS estimate of $11.11 for full-year 2019, and using a forward P/E multiple of 9
How does Capital One differentiate itself from its peers?
What are Capital One's reported business segments, and how have revenues & profits for these segments changed over recent years?
How are revenues & profits for Capital One's business segments likely to change over coming years?
CAPITAL ONE'S REVENUES & EXPENSES
This section highlights the key drivers of Capital One's revenues and expenses, and captures how sensitive Capital One's stock is to changes in each of these drivers
CAPITAL ONE'S REVENUE DRIVERS
Capital One has two core revenue components: Net Interest Income, and Non-interest Income
How important is Net Interest Income to Capital One's revenue and stock; how has it performed and what's the potential? Net Interest Income contributed roughly 82% of Capital One's revenues in 2018
How have changes in Net Interest Margin (NIM) affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast? Capital One's NIM figure increased from 6.66% in 2015 to 6.97% in 2017 before falling to 6.87% in 2018
How does Capital One's Net Interest Margin (NIM) figure compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How does Capital One's Net Interest Margin (NIM) figure compare with the average for U.S. commercial banking industry?How have changes in Interest-earnings assets affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast? Capital One's Interest-earnings assets have grown from $282 billion in 2015 to $333 billion in 2018
How important is Non-interest Income to Capital One's revenue and stock; how has it performed and what's the potential? While it is a smaller contributor to the top line, Non-interest Income has witnessed strong growth over recent years
How have changes in Card Fees affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast? Card fees has jumped from $2.2 billion in 2015 to $2.8 billion in 2018
How have changes in Service Charges affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast? Service Charges have fallen from over $1.7 billion in 2015 to under $1.6 billion in 2018
How have changes in Other Income affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast? Other Income has varied considerably over the years
CAPITAL ONE'S EXPENSE DRIVERS
Capital One has two core expense components: Operating Expenses, and Loan Loss Provisions
How important are Operating Expenses to Capital One's revenue and stock; how have they performed and what's the potential? Operating Expenses contributed between 65-75% of Capital One's Total Expenses over recent years
How have changes in Compensation Expenses affected Capital One's earnings and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Compensation Expenses as a % of Revenues compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Marketing Costs affected Capital One's earnings and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Marketing Costs as a % of Revenues compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Professional Services Costs affected Capital One's earnings and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Professional Services Costs as a % of Revenues compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Occupancy & Equipment Costs affected Capital One's earnings and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Occupancy & Equipment Costs as a % of Revenues compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Communication & Data Processing Costs affected Capital One's earnings and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Communication & Data Processing Costs as a % of Revenues compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How important is Loan Loss Provisions to Capital One's earnings and stock; how has it performed and what's the potential?
How does Capital One's Loan Loss Provision Rate compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How does Capital One's Loan Loss Provision Rate compare with the average for U.S. commercial banking industry?
CAPITAL ONE'S KEY OPERATING METRICS
This section captures trends in Capital One's key operating metrics over the years
CAPITAL ONE'S LOAN & DEPOSIT METRICS
How have changes in Credit Card Balances affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast?
How Much Do Capital One's U.S. and International Card Balances contribute to its revenues, earnings and stock?How does Capital One's Credit Card Balance compare with the largest U.S. card lenders?How have changes in Auto Loan Portfolio affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Auto Loan Portfolio compare with the five largest U.S. auto lenders?How have changes in Other Consumer Loan Portfolio affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Other Consumer Loan Portfolio compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Commercial & Industrial Loan Portfolio affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Commercial & Industrial Lending Portfolio compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?How have changes in Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolio affected Capital One's revenues and stock, and what's the forecast?
How does Capital One's Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolio compare with the five largest U.S. commercial banks?