VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Coach constitutes 74% of the Trefis price estimate for Tapestry's stock.
2. Kate Spade constitutes 22% of the Trefis price estimate for Tapestry's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Tapestry 2023 Snapshot

In fiscal 2023, TPR reported sales of $6.66 billion - flat year-over-year (y-o-y). In addition, earnings of $3.88 per share were up 22% y-o-y during the year.

Note: Tapestry's FY'23 ended on July 1, 2023.

2. Acquisition of Capri Holdings

Tapestry announced the acquisition of Capri Holdings, formerly known as Michael Kors, in a transformative deal. Tapestry plans to finance the $8.5 billion deal in debt, with its own net debt reported around $900 million, for a $9.4 billion pro forma net debt load. The Tapestry- Capri deal will create a huge portfolio of luxury brands as Tapestry's Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman brands will be combined with Capri's Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors brands. The deal creates a pro forma $12 billion global luxury empire to create more diversified operations, brands, and geographical coverage. This comes as Tapestry's $6.7 billion revenue base is complemented by the $5.5 billion revenue base of Capri.

3. Outlook for FY 2024

For the full year 2024, the retailer expects revenue approaching $6.9 billion, up 3% to 4% versus the prior year on both a reported and constant currency basis. Earnings per diluted share are expected to total between $4.10 to $4.15, representing approximately 6% to 7% growth compared to the prior year. The outlook assumes no revenue or earnings contribution related to the proposed acquisition of Capri Holdings, which is expected to close sometime in 2024.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Tapestry, Inc. is a leading New York-based house of modern luxury accessories and lifestyle brands. Tapestry owns the Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman brands. The Company's primary product offerings, manufactured by third-party suppliers, include women's and men's bags, small leather goods, footwear, ready-to-wear including outerwear, watches, weekend and travel accessories, scarves, eyewear, fragrance, jewelry, and other lifestyle products.

The Coach segment includes worldwide sales of Coach brand products to customers through Coach-operated stores, including the Internet, concession shop-in-shops, and sales to wholesale customers and independent third-party distributors. The Kate Spade segment includes worldwide sales primarily of Kate Spade New York brand products to customers through Kate Spade-operated stores, including the Internet, concession shop-in-shops, independent third-party distributors, and wholesale customers. The Stuart Weitzman segment includes worldwide sales of Stuart Weitzman brand products primarily to wholesale customers, numerous independent third-party distributors, and through Stuart Weitzman-operated stores, including the Internet.

KEY TRENDS

Demand for luxury goods is correlated with economic growth

Demand for luxury, and fashion goods can be an indicator of flourishing economies. It is observed that during boom times, consumers with higher incomes tend to consume more high-end goods like leather handbags, designer clothes, branded watches, etc. Luxury goods are cyclical and correlate with GDP in specific regions, often exaggerating the up- and down-swings in the economy. As the global economy recovers, we expect the luxury goods market to return to pre-recessionary growth levels of 7-8% per year.

Increasing demand for luxury goods in China and other emerging markets

Luxury consumption in China has seen double-digit growth in recent years as a result of rapid economic growth and rising standards of living. Despite weak macroeconomic conditions globally and a threat to China's economy from surging inflation, luxury goods sales continue to grow strong in China. It should also be noted that Coach has a more significant physical presence in China, which is expected to be the key beneficiary of China's reopening. China's luxury market is rapidly recovering from the pandemic with greater strength and resilience. It is expected to reach around $112 billion by 2025, or approximately 25% of the total global spending.

Emerging markets will see the highest growth in new openings of directly-operated stores in the coming years. Tapestry is aiming for expansion into areas where it feels it is under-penetrated, such as Greater China, South East Asia, and Europe.

Consumer shift to affordable luxury

Affordable luxury brands and private labels have held up solidly during the current market conditions, while luxury and premium end companies, including Louis Vuitton and Hermes, have all reported slowing sales. The luxury market has been hit by a renewed sense of consumer ethics, which has seen some consumers turning away from luxurious lifestyles to take on a "less is more" approach.

This trend was observed even before the economic downturn, with consumers shying away from luxury items, hinting that consumers may not return to buy luxury goods in the near future and may opt for more understated choices.