Tapestry (TPR) Last Update 9/26/21
Related: AEO ANF GPS NKE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Tapestry
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Coach
78.7%
$37.01
Kate Spade
15.9%
$7.48
TOTAL
100%
$47.01
$47.01
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$38.63
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

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Tapestry Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Coach constitutes 79% of the Trefis price estimate for Tapestry's stock.
  2. Kate Spade constitutes 16% of the Trefis price estimate for Tapestry's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

  1. Tapestry Tops Expectations in Fiscal Q3
Tapestry reported a strong performance in the fiscal third quarter (ending March), with the company coming ahead of its expectations on earnings and revenues. Overall, total sales for the quarter grew by 19% to $1.27 billion. Tapestry reported an adjusted profit of $0.51 per share, a significant increase compared to a loss in the prior year and 21% ahead of pre-pandemic EPS levels. Moreover, Tapestry drove strong e-commerce growth, with the company's digital sales increasing in triple digits. This led digital sales to approximately 30% of total revenue as compared to a mid-teens percentage last year. The company expects revenue for FY2021 to increase at a mid-teens rate Y/Y and operating income and EPS will also increase Y/Y.

  1. China in Focus
The numbers reported in the first quarter, show a massive increase in sales in Greater China - which increased by 46% to $804 million. While figures in North America and other Asian regions declined. China is expected to be the largest luxury market by 2025, and Tapestry appears to know it well. Given a sound financial position, the company has the liquidity to invest in marketing campaigns, or develop more stores in China.

  1. Pullback from Wholesale Channel and Flash Sales
Tapestry has been curtailing the number of surprise sales and pulling back on its wholesale channel for the Kate Spade brand, similar to the steps it has taken for Coach, to ease the pressure on the margins. While the company will continue to hold back on the discounting in FY 2020, easier comparisons and increased full-price sales should result in double-digit growth for the brand.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Tapestry, Inc. is a leading New York-based house of modern luxury accessories and lifestyle brands. Tapestry owns the Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman brands. The Company’s primary product offerings, manufactured by third-party suppliers, include women’s and men’s bags, small leather goods, footwear, ready-to-wear including outerwear, watches, weekend and travel accessories, scarves, eyewear, fragrance, jewelry, and other lifestyle products.

The Coach segment includes worldwide sales of Coach brand products to customers through Coach-operated stores, including the Internet, concession shop-in-shops, and sales to wholesale customers and independent third-party distributors. The Kate Spade segment includes worldwide sales primarily of Kate Spade New York brand products to customers through Kate Spade operated stores, including the Internet, concession shop-in-shops, independent third-party distributors, and to wholesale customers. The Stuart Weitzman segment includes worldwide sales of Stuart Weitzman brand products primarily to wholesale customers, numerous independent third-party distributors, and through Stuart Weitzman operated stores, including the Internet.

KEY TRENDS

Demand for luxury goods is correlated with economic growth

Demand for luxury, fashion goods can be an indicator of flourishing economies. It is observed that during boom times, consumers with higher incomes tend to consume more high-end goods like leather handbags, designer clothes, branded watches, etc. Luxury goods are cyclical and correlate with GDP in specific regions, often exaggerating the up- and down-swings in the economy. As the global economy recovers, we expect the luxury goods market to return to pre-recessionary growth levels of 7-8% per year.

Increasing demand for luxury goods in China and other emerging markets

Luxury consumption in China has seen double-digit growth in recent years as a result of rapid economic growth and rising standards of living. Despite weak macroeconomic conditions globally and a threat to China's economy from surging inflation, luxury goods sales continue to grow strong in China. China is poised to become the second-largest luxury market by 2019, according to Euromonitor, and the Chinese, the biggest spenders on luxury goods worldwide, now account for 30%-50% of global luxury sales, with 80% of their purchases made abroad.

Emerging markets will see the highest growth in new openings of directly-operated stores in the coming years. Tapestry is aiming for expansion into areas where it feels it is under-penetrated, such as Greater China, South East Asia, and Europe.

Return of the Logo Trend

The trend for logos had fallen out of fashion in the recent past, but this seems to be reversing now, benefiting a brand like Coach. Keeping this in mind, the company successfully relaunched its Signature pattern in Q3 2018. Coach has plans to build upon this, including an expanded range of small leather goods, which should ensure growth for the brand.

Consumer shift to affordable luxury

Affordable luxury brands and private labels have held up solidly during the current market conditions, while luxury and premium end companies, including Louis Vuitton and Hermes, have all reported slowing sales. The luxury market has been hit by a renewed sense of consumer ethics, which has seen some consumers turning away from luxurious lifestyles to take on a "less is more" approach.

This trend was observed even before the economic downturn, with consumers shying away from luxury items, hinting that consumers may not return to buy luxury goods in the near future and may opt for more understated choices.