Ericsson (ERIC) Last Update 7/28/21
Related: NOK CSCO JNPR MSI
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Ericsson
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Networks
89.2%
$6.16
Net Debt
1.7% $0.12
TOTAL
100%
$6.91
$15.60
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$11.28
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
  1. Download Trefis Report

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Ericsson Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Networks constitute 89% of the Trefis price estimate for Ericsson's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

  1. Latest Earnings - Q2 '21
Ericsson delivered a steady performance for its fiscal second quarter, with total revenue coming in at the same level as Q2 2020, at around SEK 55 billion. However, gross income rose by SEK 3 billion and net income rose more than 50% to SEK 3.9 billion, driving an almost 50% rise in EPS to SEK 1.10.

  1. Ban on Huawei Could Help Ericsson
The U.S. has been persuading its allies to stop using networking equipment manufactured by Chinese telecom behemoth Huawei, amid concerns that it promotes spying by the Chinese government. Huawei is seen as a leader of sorts in the 5G market, outspending its rivals on R&D (over $15 billion in 2018 vs. $4 billion for Ericsson) and holding the largest number of 5G related patents. With the company’s current headwinds, there could be an opportunity for Ericsson (and Nokia) to close the gap.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Ericsson’s value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Networks

  • Mobile Infrastructure Equipment Revenues: With an estimated market share of over 30%, Ericsson leads the Mobile (Wireless) Infrastructure market. The division also contributes roughly 65% of the company’s revenues. We estimate that revenues will increase from levels of about $20 billion in 2020 to close to $24 billion by 2028, driven by spending on 5G equipment. However, if Ericsson is not able to achieve this, due to increased competition and its revenue only rises to about $22 billion in the same time frame, there could be a downside of about 5% to our price estimate.
  • Networks EBITDA Margin: Margins for the networking division declined from levels of around 24% in 2015 to 14.7% in 2017, due to higher competition and declining demand in the broader wireless infrastructure market. The metric rose to about 20% by 2019, and 23% by 2020. We expect the metric to rise to levels of around 25% by the end of our review period as demand picks up. However, if the metric remains at current levels of 22-23% due to competition from Chinese players, who are betting big on 5G technology, there could be a downside of about 10% to our price estimate. On the other hand, if the company boosts margins to 28% by the end of our review period, there could be an upside of close to 10% to our price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Ericsson at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Ericsson is a global telecommunications equipment and services provider based in Stockholm, Sweden. Operating in 180 countries, Ericsson is one of the leading suppliers of mobile networks with products in CDMA, WCDMA/3G, 4G/LTE, and now 5G technologies. It is also a strong player in Fixed-network solutions, including copper and fiber, microwave transport, and Internet Protocol. It boasts 33,000 patents from its 24,000 employee R&D unit. Ericsson is also one of the leading providers of IT services, such as systems integration, network, and consulting. It also has a significant presence in the Operations Support Systems (OSS), Business Support Systems (BSS) and m-commerce markets.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Networks

Accounting for over 65% of Ericsson’s overall revenues, Networks is the dominant division for the company. It is dominated by the Wireless division offering mobile communication equipment, including 3G and 4G/LTE solutions. Ericsson occupies the top spot in the global Wireless equipment market with about a 30% market share. It is positioned well to benefit from this $40 billion market over the short- to medium-term. The other products offered under this division are the fixed-line products for copper and fiber, microwave backhaul systems, and modems.

KEY TRENDS

The 5G Upgrade Cycle

Operators across the world have started to outline plans for their 5G upgrades, with U.S. carriers commencing commercial deployments of the technology in 2018. For instance, AT&T and Verizon have deployed 5G mmWave services in over 30 markets by the end of 2019, while Verizon is bringing fixed 5G to homes in multiple U.S. cities. Other regions, including South Korea, China, Japan, and the Middle East, commenced their build-outs in 2019. Ericsson projects that there could be 3.5 billion “internet of things” connections on networks running 5G by 2023, with roughly 1 billion mobile customers, which translates to approximately 12% of total projected mobile subscriptions. Ericsson is betting on the next-generation technology to drive growth after posting mixed results over the last few years amid intense competition from Chinese equipment manufacturers and weaker spending by wireless carriers.

Equipment Modernization in Europe and Capacity Building in Asia

Ericsson’s mobile equipment modernization drive in Europe is likely to improve profitability due to increased efficiency and lower costs. Also, a gradual shift from coverage projects to capacity building projects is being done by the company. Increasing coverage in Asia, Europe, and Latin America have come at the cost of margins in the past couple of years, but as it reaches completion in the near term, profitability is expected to rise which will help counter the stiff competition being provided by Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE.

Hardware to Software Shift in Telecommunications Market

There has been an industry-wide shift in demand from hardware networking solutions to software-based ones in the long run. This poses an interesting challenge to traditional hardware-based players such as Ericsson, Cisco, and Juniper. However, Ericsson is showing adaptability with its increased focus on software and support solutions, where it is competing with many small and local service providers. The company made several acquisitions in 2014, such as Sentilla, Fabrix Systems, and MetraTech, to boost its capabilities to offer cloud-based support services.

Internet of things domain warming up

The IoT domain includes computing devices other than PCs, tablets, and phones. Cisco estimates that the IoT market will be worth $19 trillion over the next decade, representing a $1.7 trillion market for service providers. McKinsey estimates that IoT could have an impact of up to $6.2 trillion on the global economy by 2025. While these estimates may vary, they are in agreement regarding the huge potential of the market. Clearly, there is a lot of growth potential for network infrastructure companies such as Ericsson in addition to networking players and semiconductor companies.