VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Commercial Airplanes constitute 52% of the Trefis price estimate for Boeing's stock.
2. Global Services constitute 30% of the Trefis price estimate for Boeing's stock.
3. Defense, Space & Security Systems constitute 18% of the Trefis price estimate for Boeing's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year 2025

Boeing reported a significant financial turnaround in its fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue surging 57% year-over-year to $23.95 billion, comfortably beating analyst estimates of $22.4 billion. The company reported a non-GAAP core EPS of $9.92, a massive beat compared to the projected loss of $0.45, largely driven by higher commercial deliveries and a $9.6 billion gain from the divestiture of its Digital Aviation Solutions business. For the full year, Boeing delivered 600 commercial aircraft, its highest total since 2018, and generated $89.5 billion in total revenue.

Note: Boeing's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Strategic Acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems Completed

Boeing recently finalized the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, a critical move aimed at stabilizing its supply chain and improving manufacturing quality for the 737 and 787 programs. To fund the integration and manage debt, Boeing utilized $10.6 billion in proceeds from the sale of its Digital Aviation Solutions business. This structural pivot is intended to bring core fuselage production back in-house, reducing "out-of-sequence" work and ensuring more predictable delivery timelines as the company targets a production rate of 50 737 MAX aircraft per month by late 2026.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Boeing's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Commercial Airplanes

• 737 MAX Delivery Volume: Boeing is currently producing 42 737 MAX aircraft per month and plans to ramp up toward 50 by the end of 2026. While demand remains robust with a total backlog of over 6,100 aircraft, supply chain constraints and FAA oversight on quality control remain the primary risks. If Boeing successfully reaches its 50-unit monthly target without further safety delays, there is significant upside to free cash flow estimates.


• 787 Production and Widebody Certification: The 787 program has stabilized at 8 units per month with a target of 10 per month in 2026. However, the 777X program faces continued pressure, with first deliveries now pushed to 2027 following recent certification delays. Sustained delivery growth in the 787 segment is critical for margin expansion, as these widebody jets carry higher price points and more favorable margins than narrowbody models.

For additional details, select a driver above or a division from the interactive Trefis split for Boeing at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Boeing is a global leader in aerospace, operating through three primary segments: Commercial Airplanes (BCA), Defense, Space & Security (BDS), and Global Services (BGS). The company’s business model centers on the long-cycle manufacturing of narrowbody and widebody jets, alongside a steady high-margin services business and a defense portfolio that provides a stable, though currently lower-margin, revenue stream from government contracts.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Commercial Airplanes segment remains Boeing's primary value driver due to the massive global demand for fleet modernization and fuel efficiency.

Unrivaled Market Duopoly

Boeing operates in a global duopoly with Airbus, benefiting from an immense barrier to entry. With a record total backlog of $682 billion, Boeing has years of clear revenue visibility. The high cost of switching for airlines—given pilot training and maintenance infrastructure—creates a deep moat for Boeing’s installed base of 737 and 787 aircraft.

High-Margin Global Services

The Global Services division provides a resilient, high-margin revenue stream that often offsets volatility in manufacturing. As the global fleet ages and flight hours increase, the demand for parts, modifications, and digital solutions ensures steady cash flow. In 2025, this segment demonstrated its strategic value by maintaining high operating margins while the manufacturing divisions underwent restructuring.

KEY TRENDS

Global Fleet Modernization

Airlines are aggressively transitioning to next-generation, fuel-efficient aircraft to meet sustainability goals and reduce operating costs. This macro trend supports Boeing's 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner programs, as these models offer significantly lower fuel burn and carbon emissions compared to the legacy fleets they replace.

Operational Stabilization and Quality Focus

Under the leadership of CEO Kelly Ortberg, Boeing is shifting its internal strategy from rapid production growth to "quality-first" manufacturing discipline. This shift includes reducing rework hours—which fell by 30% in 2025—and reintegrating key suppliers like Spirit AeroSystems to eliminate systemic production bottlenecks. This strategy is expected to yield more sustainable free cash flow of $1-$3 billion in 2026.