VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Steelmaking constitutes 95% of the Trefis price estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Q4 2025 Earnings
   • For Q4 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs posted revenue of about $4.3 billion, flat compared with the year-ago quarter. GAAP net loss came in at $235 million. The company reported steel shipments of 3.8 million net tons for the quarter.

2. Cleveland-Cliffs Push Into Steel Making
   • In 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs acquired ArcelorMittal USA and AK Steel and transformed itself from an iron ore mining company to a vertically integrated steel producer. The company reported $18 billion in steelmaking revenues and 16.2 million tons of steel shipments in 2024. With a product portfolio including hot-rolled steel, cold-rolled steel, coated steel, stainless steel, and plates, the company caters to a wide customer base in the U.S.

3. Imposition of tariffs
   • Tariffs remain a key support for Cleveland-Cliffs, as expanded Section 232 duties — including higher tariffs on derivative steel products — continue to shield the company from low-cost imports and bolster domestic pricing power and market share. The company has backed these measures, particularly as they protect its electrical and specialty steel operations. However, policy uncertainty persists, with potential tariff reviews or rollbacks posing a risk to pricing strength. Additionally, if higher steel prices pressure downstream sectors like autos and construction, overall demand could soften. While the tariff environment is still a near-term positive, its long-term benefit depends on sustained policy support and stable end-market demand.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Cliffs' value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.:

Steel Shipments (Tons)

• Total Steel Shipments: Steel Shipments rose from around 3.8 million tons in 2020 to 16.2 million tons in 2025. Trefis expects the metric to grow to about 19 million by the end of our review period. However, if shipments grow to about 20+ million tons, there could be an upside of about 10% to our price estimate. On the other side, if shipments remain flat at about 18 million tons at the end of our review period, there could be a downside of about 10% to our price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel producer and the largest manufacturer of iron ore pellets in North America. The company's operations are vertically integrated - spanning from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron, and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing. Cliffs is now North America's largest steel supplier to the automotive industry.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The North American Iron Ore division is the company's only reported segment currently and is the most valuable segment. The company gets its revenues from vertically integrated iron ore and steel manufacturing operations. CLF's major customers are steel companies and industrial customers - mainly automobile players. Long-term contracts with these customers ensure the sale of a substantial portion of the firm's mineral production.