VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Copper (North American Mines, South American Mines, Indonesian Mines) constitutes 71% of the Trefis price estimate for Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s stock.
2. Gold constitutes 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. FY2025 Earnings
   • For the full year FY25, Freeport-McMoRan reported revenue of roughly US$25.9 billion, supported by firm copper and gold prices despite operational disruptions. Full-year EPS came in at approximately US$1.53 per share. Consolidated copper production for FY25 totaled about 3.4 billion lbs, with output weighed down by the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, which constrained volumes, particularly in the second half of the year.

2. Outlook for copper market
   • The outlook for the copper market remains constructive, with structural demand from electrification, power grids, AI data centers, and electric vehicles continuing to outweigh cyclical weakness in sectors such as residential construction and autos. In the U.S., heavy investment in electrical infrastructure and data-center expansion is driving strong demand for power cable and building wire, while in China, copper consumption is being supported by ongoing grid upgrades, EV production growth, and policy stimulus—even as the property sector remains weak. With global electrification trends intact and supply growth constrained by operational disruptions, declining ore grades, and limited new mine capacity, the copper market is expected to stay tight through 2025, supporting prices and benefiting large, diversified producers.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Freeport's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Indonesian Copper Mines Division

• Copper Sold: Shipments rose from 667 million pounds in 2019 to 804 million pounds in 2020 due to higher mining rates and higher copper ore grades. In 2021, the metric increased further to 1.3 billion pounds and rose to about 1.58 billion pounds in 2022 although it fell to 1.53 billion in 2023 and further to 1.21 billion in 2025. Trefis expects the metric to rise steadily to over 1.5 billion tons by 2030.


• Average Realized Price per Pound: Average Realized Copper Price Per Pound rose by over 45% to $4.40 per pound in 2021, due to strong demand from the renewables and EV industry and supply constraints, although they declined a bit to about $3.82 per pound in 2022 and stood at $3.90 per pound in 2023. Prices increased to $4.15 in 2024. Prices increased sharply to $4.50 in 2025. We expect prices to recover to around $5.00 by 2030. However, if prices only rise to about $4.50, there could be a 10% decline in our price estimate. On the other side, if prices rise to over $5.50 per pound by the end of our review period, there could be a 10% upside to our price estimate.
  

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company runs its mining and smelting operations in North and South America and Indonesia.

FCX is one of the world's largest copper, gold, and molybdenum mining companies in terms of reserves and quantity produced. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia contains the largest single recoverable copper and gold reserve in any mine in the world.

The company's earnings are sensitive to the prices of these metals, particularly copper. Prices of copper, gold, and molybdenum have been recovering recently. A sudden decrease in spot prices would negatively impact the company's earnings, while any upward movement would increase earnings.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Copper is the primary source of revenue

Copper mining is the most important division for Freeport-McMoRan in terms of revenues and profits.

KEY TRENDS

Recovery in global demand and prices for copper

Demand for copper is expected to remain strong, led by investments in the renewable energy sector, including electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and solar & wind power plants. Moreover, the plans for the revamp of U.S. infrastructure could also raise the demand outlook for copper from the U.S. and lead to a recovery in prices.