VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. CDMA Technologies constitute 87% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock.
2. Technology Licensing constitutes 12% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q3 FY'24

Qualcomm reported revenues of $9.39 billion for Q3 FY'24, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth in its QCT semiconductor business. Adjusted diluted EPS reached $2.33, up 24% year-over-year, beating market estimates due to handset market recovery and ongoing momentum in automotive design wins.

Note: Qualcomm's FY'23 ended on September 24, 2023. Q3 FY'24 ended on June 23, 2024.

Snapdragon X Series Expansion and Automotive Momentum

Qualcomm expanded its footprint in client computing with the rollout of Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus platforms across major OEM Copilot+ PCs. Concurrently, the automotive segment achieved record quarterly revenue of $811 million, up 87% year-over-year, underscoring Qualcomm's successful diversification away from mobile-only dependencies toward intelligent edge devices and connected vehicles.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Qualcomm's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

QCT - CDMA Technologies

• Automotive Pipeline Execution: Qualcomm's Snapdragon Digital Chassis adoption continues to accelerate, driving automotive design win pipeline expansion. Stronger-than-expected content per vehicle could provide material upside to Trefis revenue per vehicle estimates.


• Handset Market Recovery and AI PC Share: Higher demand for premium-tier Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 processors and market share gains in AI-enabled Copilot+ PCs present potential upside, offset by risk of intensified domestic chip competition in China.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Qualcomm at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Qualcomm develops and licenses foundational wireless technologies while designing advanced semiconductor solutions powering smartphones, connected vehicles, industrial IoT, and edge AI applications globally.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Qualcomm's QCT semiconductor division generates the majority of overall revenue, supported by high-margin licensing streams from its QTL technology patent portfolio.

Mobile Processor Dominance

Qualcomm maintains a leading market share position in premium and high-tier Android smartphones globally through its Snapdragon application processors and integrated 5G modems, generating robust volume and pricing leverage.

Patent Licensing Monopoly and High Margins

The QTL segment licenses Qualcomm's essential standard patents covering cellular technologies (3G, 4G, 5G), delivering exceptionally high gross margins and recurring royalty revenue across the smartphone ecosystem.

Automotive and Industrial Edge Expansion

The growing adoption of the Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform positions Qualcomm as a core platform provider for digital cockpits, telemetry, and ADAS, expanding its addressable market beyond traditional cellular devices.

KEY TRENDS

On-Device Artificial Intelligence Intelligence

The industry shift toward running generative AI models directly on edge devices favors Qualcomm's NPU architectures in Snapdragon processors, creating pricing power across mobile, PC, and automotive hardware.

Diversification Beyond Smartphones

Qualcomm is actively pivoting its revenue mix toward automotive and IoT segments to reduce reliance on cyclical smartphone replacement cycles and customer concentration risks.