Note: Lowe's FY'21 ended on January 28, 2021. Q1 FY'22 refers to the quarter that ended on April 29, 2022.
Lowe's EBITDA Margin: From 2019-2021, Lowe's improved margins from 11.6% to 15.3% by streamlining its operations, supply chain, and cutting down heavily on its SG&A expenses. Going forward, we expect the margins to improve further through our forecast period, aided by same-store growth and with further operating leverage as comps improve. However, if the comps grew slower than expected, it can cause a 10% downside to our current price estimate, with margins reaching just under 17%. On the other hand, if the housing market and home improvement industry continues to strengthen, and outpace previously forecast growth estimates, and comps improve better than expected, resulting in the margins reaching 20.1%, there could be an over 5% upside to our current price estimate.
Lowe's is the world’s second-largest retailer of home improvement products, after Home Depot. Through its 1971 stores spread across the U.S., and Canada (having recently exited from Mexico), Lowe's offers a wide range of home improvement products and installation services to individual homeowners as well as professional builders. In addition to the physical stores, consumers can buy these products through the company’s dedicated website.
Lowe's has deep penetration levels in the U.S. with a total of 1,971 stores at the end of FY 2021. It is also trying to increase its presence in Canada. Lowe's is keen to venture aggressively into Mexico's home improvement industry where it recently opened two stores. Lowe's main selling point is that it outshines its main competitor Home Depot in terms of the in-store shopping experience for the consumers. This has forced Home Depot to upgrade its store environment and provide better customer service.
Lowe's saw record sales growth in 2020 as it added over $17 billion year-over-year to its sales base and booked soaring profits through the year. In addition, the company also reported a strong comparable sales growth of 26.1% in fiscal 2020, which surpassed Home Depot's comp sales of 19.7% in fiscal 2020. Particularly, Lowe's saw a 12.1% increase in comparable average tickets and a 14.0% increase in comparable customer transactions during 2020.
Professional customers place larger orders compared to the do-it-yourself segment, and better serving these customers can boost revenues for Lowe’s in the long term. While the recovery in the housing segment has benefited players such as Home Depot and Lowe’s, the latter's growth has not been as stellar, primarily due to its focus on the do-it-yourself consumer segment. While the do-it-yourself segment is lucrative and accounts for the bulk of Lowe’s revenues, these customers are small ticket buyers and many are just one-time customers. On the other hand, pro-customers account for only 30% of Lowe’s revenues, but they enter into big-ticket transactions and are usually repeat customers. Keeping this in mind, the company has been focused on these customers by introducing pro-focused brands such as Mapei and Zoeller.
A survey from NRHA suggests a change in the buying patterns among U.S. home improvement consumers. People are no longer loyal to only products made in the U.S. Consumer demand is driven more by price and quality. Consumers may find foreign products which are better suited to their needs more appealing than products made in the domestic market. Another observable trend is the shift in consumers toward buying green or eco-friendly products such as water saving flushes and electricity saving appliances.
Unemployment was at its lowest since 2000, and wages were improving. (Before the coronavirus outbreak which has halted the world's economies.) Although interest rate hikes make mortgages more expensive, on the whole, it is indicative of a strong economy. These factors signal a solid U.S. economy and have given rise to supportive housing fundamentals. This bodes well for a company like Lowe's that is heavily reliant on the improvement of the housing industry
The housing market has seen a resurgence of late. While things have not returned to the boom times, the number of new houses built last year was the most since 2007. People who buy new homes spend money on improving their homes, installing appliances, buying furnishings, etc. It is not just the new homes, but the remodeling of existing houses is also on an upswing.
Lowe's share price and performance, in general, have continued to benefit from the phenomenal growth in housing markets in the previous years, and steady growth in recent times.