VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. GM North America constitutes 81% of the Trefis price estimate for General Motors's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

General Motors reported Q1 2026 revenue of $43.6 billion, representing a slight decline of 0.9% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EPS rose significantly by 33.0% to $3.70, exceeding analyst expectations. This performance was primarily driven by strong pricing in North America, a 42% market share in full-size pickups, and a $500 million benefit from a U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding certain International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs.

Note: General Motors's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Supreme Court Ruling Triggers Guidance Hike

In April 2026, General Motors raised its full-year EBIT-adjusted guidance to a range of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion following a favorable U.S. Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. This legal victory allows GM to recoup roughly $500 million in previously paid costs and lowers the expected gross tariff burden for 2026 to between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion. The ruling significantly bolsters GM's cash flow outlook and supports its aggressive $6.0 billion share repurchase authorization.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of General Motors's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

GM North America (GMNA)

• Full-Size Truck Market Share: GM maintains a dominant 42% share of the lucrative U.S. full-size pickup market. If GM can maintain its industry-low incentive spend of 4.4% of MSRP while competitors increase discounts, there is significant upside to the current 10.1% segment margin estimate.


• EV Portfolio Expansion: GM is now the #2 EV seller in the U.S., with EV market share rising to 13% in March 2026. A faster-than-anticipated reduction in battery cell costs or higher adoption of the Chevrolet Equinox EV could drive segment margins toward the upper end of the 8-10% target range.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for General Motors at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

General Motors designs, builds, and sells trucks, crossovers, and cars globally, while also operating a high-margin financial services arm (GM Financial) and developing autonomous vehicle technology through its Cruise segment.

SOURCES OF VALUE

General Motors's valuation is primarily anchored by its massive scale and profitability in the North American internal combustion engine market, which funds its transition to future technologies.

Truck and SUV Dominance

GM leads the industry in full-size pickup sales and has successfully shifted its product mix toward crossovers, which now represent over 46% of total sales. This high-margin portfolio provides the essential cash flow needed to self-fund EV and AV investments.

Scale and Manufacturing Integration

The company's Ultium battery platform and vertically integrated cell manufacturing joint ventures allow for significant economies of scale. This infrastructure is designed to reduce EV production costs rapidly, aiming for positive variable profit margins in the near term.

KEY TRENDS

Electrification and Software Integration

GM is aggressively scaling its EV lineup while expanding its software-enabled services. Super Cruise revenue grew 85% year-over-year in Q1 2026, signaling a shift toward recurring, high-margin software revenue that complements traditional hardware sales.

Aggressive Capital Allocation

Management is prioritizing shareholder returns through a disciplined capital allocation strategy. This includes a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend starting in early 2026 and a massive $6.0 billion share buyback program supported by robust automotive free cash flow.

Autonomous Vehicle Recovery

Following a period of restructuring and safety realignments, the Cruise segment is focused on advancing automated driving technology. Success in safely scaling these operations represents a long-term optionality play for the company's valuation.