Goldman Sachs (GS) Last Update 4/6/21
Related: BAC C UBS CS
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Goldman Sachs
$365.51
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$328
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Goldman Sachs Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Asset Management constitutes 48% of the Trefis price estimate for Goldman Sachs's stock.
  2. Institutional Clients (FICC Trading, Equity Trading) constitute 27% of the Trefis price estimate for Goldman Sachs's stock.
  3. Investment Banking (M&A Advisory, Equity Underwriting & Debt Origination) constitutes 21% of the Trefis price estimate for Goldman Sachs's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings

In Q4 2020, Goldman reported total revenues of $11.74 billion -- a 18% jump as compared to the year-ago period. This could be attributed to a 23% growth in global markets due to higher trading activity and 27% jump in investment banking revenues. Notably, FICC (fixed income, currency and commodity) trading saw an increase of 6% on an year-on-year basis followed by 40% growth in equities trading space.

Impact of coronavirus outbreak

Goldman Sachs full year 2020 revenues increased by 22% y-o-y to $44.6 billion. It was mainly due to its strength in sales & trading and investment banking businesses. While businesses and individuals have suffered in 2020 due to the impact of the Covid-19 crisis and the economic slowdown, investment banking and sales & trading have seen significant growth. Investment banking benefitted from higher underwriting deal volume and sales & trading derived its growth from higher trading volumes in the markets.

While the company reported unprecedented growth in Q2 and Q3 on a year-on-year basis, Q4 results were no different. We believe that Goldman Sachs' Q1 FY2021 revenues in April is likely to follow the same trend.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Goldman Sachs’ value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for the company’s stock:

Bonds, Currencies & Commodities

  • Trading Assets for Bonds, Currencies & Commodities : Goldman’s FICC operations have historically been its biggest source of revenue. The global bank grew its debt-trading capital from $205 billion at the end of 2005 to $293 billion by 2007. Following the global economic crisis, this figure fell to $246 billion in 2008 before recovering to $290 billion by 2012. But stricter capital requirements and weak debt market conditions over the second half of 2015 forced the figure lower to $174 billion by 2015. This figure improved over 2016-18 with 2016 reporting $180 billion followed by $203 billion and $264 billion in 2017 and 2018 respectively. We currently forecast a 2% growth in FICC trading assets going forward. However, if Goldman’s optimism about the FICC industry proves right, then assets could grow by 4% annually, to reach $347 billion by the end of our forecast period. This represents an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate.
  • Yield on Trading Assets for Bonds, Currencies & Commodities: Goldman Sachs' FICC trading yields fell from above 5.5% in 2006-2007 to under 4% in 2008 before rebounding to 8.7% in 2009. Over 2013-16, the figure has largely remained around 4% - with the figure for 2015 being unusually elevated despite a year-on-year decline in revenues due to considerable devaluation in the debt trading portfolio. Further, it reduced significantly in subsequent years from 4.1% in 2016 to 2.2% in 2018. We expect yield figures to remain around 2.15% for the Trefis forecast period. However, if Goldman’s FICC trading yields fall below 1.5% due to poor currency trade run, this could present a 4% downside to the Trefis price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Goldman Sachs at the top of the company page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Goldman Sachs is a leading global financial services firm with offices in over 30 countries. The company offers investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporate, institutional, government, and high-net-worth individual clients.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Yields For Equity Trading Business Well Above FICC Trading Yields

The average yield for Goldman’s equity trading business over the period 2014-18 has been 6.6% - compared to a figure of 3.5% for the FICC business over the same period. As a result, equity trading revenues were 29% more than FICC revenues in 2018, despite the equity trading desk being just one-third the size of the FICC trading unit in terms of trading portfolio size.

Growing Asset Management Business

Goldman’s assets under management (AUM) have seen significant growth over the last decade, as the banking giant looks for ways to improve profitability even as its cornerstone trading business remains prone to high volatility. Goldman will likely have to focus more on its asset management business as new regulations begin to restrict proprietary trading and risk-taking, which is why we see the division as a significant value driver for the company. In fact, the bank is also pushing its online loans-and-deposits services in a bid to diversify its presence in the U.S. financial services space.

KEY TRENDS

Increasing Demand for Investment Banking Services in Emerging Markets

With the GDP of many emerging markets such as China and Brazil growing rapidly, there is an increasing demand for capital from companies in these markets to support expansion. Additionally, with the integration of these markets into the global economy, there is a shift in these countries from family-run businesses to global corporations. Accordingly, there is an increasing number of companies going public or raising debt capital, driving demand for equity underwriting, and debt origination services. Consolidation across different sectors has also been driving demand for M&A advisory services.

Dominant position in investment banking

Goldman Sachs is a leader in the global investment banking space, with the bank ranking among the top three in the global M&A industry for nearly every single quarter over the last decade.

Volcker Rule Has Affected Trading Revenues

The Volcker Rule restricts banks from making certain kinds of speculative investments if they are not on behalf of their customers. Goldman’s proprietary trading desks accounted for a sizable percentage of earnings before the downturn, and the Volcker Rule put a complete stop on these revenues. Although the Trump administration can potentially dilute the Volcker rule restrictions, the timing and effectiveness of proposed changes remain to be seen.

Economic Recovery Should Stimulate the Asset Management Industry

Investors’ desire to regain losses that came during the recession could stimulate investments in multi-asset, alternative, and equity products. At the same time, signs of a broad-based recovery in the real estate market would improve prospects in alternative investments.

Long-term trends, including the ongoing shift from state pension dependency to private retirement funding, aging populations in mature markets, and growing wealth in emerging economies, will also positively impact assets under management.