VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Bulk Materials And Other constitutes 82% of the Trefis price estimate for Vale's stock.
2. Base Metals constitute 18% of the Trefis price estimate for Vale's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. VALE's Q4 2025 Results

Vale reported Q4 2025 revenue of US $11.08 billion, up from US $10.11 billion in Q4 2024, and EPS of US $0.71, compared with $0.60 a year earlier. The company delivered its strongest quarterly iron-ore shipments of the year, supported by steady output at its Northern System operations and continued logistics improvements, while further cost discipline and productivity gains helped expand margins despite a relatively stable iron-ore price environment.

2. Price and demand outlook for iron ore

As of early 2026, the price and demand outlook for iron ore remains the dominant driver of Vale S.A.’s revenue and profitability, with benchmark prices moderating toward the mid-$90s to low-$100s per ton range amid softer Chinese steel production and uneven property-sector recovery. While China continues to anchor global demand, incremental growth from India and Southeast Asia is emerging as a partial offset to plateauing Chinese consumption. On the supply side, Vale has adopted a disciplined production stance for 2026, balancing output from its flagship Carajás operations with market conditions to avoid oversupply, while continuing to focus on cost efficiency and productivity gains to protect margins in a flatter pricing environment. Currency movements—particularly the Brazilian real versus the U.S. dollar—remain a meaningful swing factor for earnings, and regulatory and environmental oversight in Brazil continues to shape operational risk and capital allocation decisions.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Vale's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Vale:

• Iron Ore Shipments: We expect Vale's iron ore shipments to rise to over 315 million tons by the end of our review period, up from around 278 million tons in 2025. However, the demand for iron ore could slow due to weaker-than-expected growth in global demand, especially from China. If demand does not grow as expected over the forecast period, Vale may be forced to reduce its planned iron ore shipments. If instead of the currently envisaged rates, iron ore fines, and pellet shipments grow at a lower rate and reach 300 million tons instead of the currently estimated 315 million tons by the end of our forecast period, it would represent a downside of around 10% to our price estimate.

• Average Realized Iron Ore Price : We expect iron ore prices to rise steadily over the forecast period. If the recovery is faster than anticipated and Vale's realized price for iron ore fines reaches $120 per ton by the end of our forecast period as opposed to our forecast of $99 per ton as currently factored into our estimates, this would represent an upside of around 15% to our price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Vale at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Vale is one of the world's largest mining companies. It primarily operates in Brazil and 32 other countries. It is the world leader in iron ore and iron ore pellets production and has access to the world's largest nickel reserves. Apart from iron ore and nickel, it also produces copper and other base metals. Vale also operates a large logistics network in Brazil which includes a railroad, maritime terminals, and a port.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The company's Bulk Materials and Other division is the most valuable division for the following reasons:

Ferrous minerals are the company's primary focus

Ferrous minerals, which include iron ore and iron ore pellets, is the largest source of revenue for Vale, accounting for approximately 78% of the company's revenues. We expect the segment to maintain its revenue share at over 75% going forward.

Long-term contracts

We expect the company to see solid revenue growth for ferrous minerals as the company has long-term contracts with iron and steel manufacturers worldwide, thereby safeguarding its production and mining activities.

KEY TRENDS

Rising demand for copper

The long-term demand outlook for copper looks favorable, given the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, both of which are very copper-intensive. For perspective, EVs use over 2x the copper used by traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Renewable generation such as solar and wind requires over 5x more copper for each installed MW compared to traditional nuclear and fossil fuel-based power generation. This could help drive demand for Vale's copper business.