VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. North America constitutes 38% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.
2. Europe constitutes 25% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.
3. India and JVs constitute 13% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Q4 2025 Earnings
   • ArcelorMittal delivered a solid set of Q4 2025 results, with revenue of approximately US $15.0 billion, modestly lower sequentially and slightly below expectations amid seasonal softness. Net income came in at around US $180 million (≈ US $0.23 per share), while adjusted net income was a stronger US $650 million (≈ US $0.86 per share), comfortably ahead of consensus estimates. Despite continued demand headwinds and pricing pressure in some regions, the company highlighted resilient margins, disciplined cost control, and early signs of demand stabilization, underscoring the strength of its diversified global footprint and strategic investments heading into 2026.

2. Trump's tariff policies
   • ArcelorMittal’s Q4 2025 results continued to reflect pressure from the renewed U.S. tariff measures introduced under the Trump administration, with trade uncertainty weighing on steel flows and end-market confidence late in the year. Management reiterated that the full-year impact was around US $150 million, driven by elevated input costs, margin pressure, and softer pricing conditions in the U.S. and parts of Europe. While tariffs continued to disrupt exports and raise the risk of regional oversupply, ArcelorMittal noted that its strong domestic U.S. footprint and operational flexibility, including production strength at its Alabama facility, helped cushion the impact and preserve profitability into year-end.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of ArcelorMittal's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal:

ArcelorMittal North America

• Steel Shipments in North America : ArcelorMittal's steel shipments in North America increased from 9.6 million tons in 2021 to 10.6 million tons in 2023. It dropped to 10 million tons in 2024 and increased marginally to 10.3 million tons in 2025. Trefis expects the metric to rise marginally to about 11.3 million tons by 2031. However, if shipments grow to almost 11.8 million tons, there could be a 5% upside to our price estimate. On the other side, if shipments fall to less than 10.5 million tons, there could be a 5% downside to our price estimate.


• Average Steel Price in North America: ArcelorMittal's Average Price of steel in North America rose from $702 per ton in 2020 to $1215 in 2022 due to a surge in prices following the war in Ukraine. The metric fell to about $1024 in 2023 and dropped further to $985 in 2024 with lower demand. Prices increased marginally to $1014 in 2025. Trefis expects the metric to come in at about $1100 by 2031. However, if prices grow to about $1,200, there could be a 10% upside to our price estimate.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

ArcelorMittal is currently the largest steel manufacturer in the world and was formed by the merger of steel giants Arcelor and Mittal in 2006. The company has a crude steel production capacity of about 81 million metric tons of steel annually and has operations in 20 countries on four continents.

ArcelorMittal produces a variety of flat products such as sheets and plates and long products, including bars and rods. The firm also produces pipes and tubes for various applications.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The North American segment is the most valuable division of the firm, accounting for around 38% of the company's value. It is valuable for the following reasons:

North America division

North America accounts for about 20% of ArcelorMittal’s global revenue, making it a key geographical region for the company​. The division supplies steel to automotive, construction, energy, and manufacturing industries, which are critical to the U.S. and Canadian economies.