VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Subscription constitutes 67% of the Trefis price estimate for New York Times's stock.
2. Advertising constitutes 14% of the Trefis price estimate for New York Times's stock.
3. Other Revenue constitutes 12% of the Trefis price estimate for New York Times's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

NYT Q4 2025 Snapshot

The New York Times Company reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results, with revenue rising about 10% year over year to roughly $802 million, driven primarily by continued strength in digital subscriptions and advertising. The company added about 450,000 net digital-only subscribers during the quarter, bringing total subscribers to around 12.8 million, while digital subscription revenue increased nearly 14% to about $382 million. Advertising also improved, with digital ad revenue jumping about 25% year over year and helping lift total advertising revenue by roughly 16%. The quarter capped a strong year for subscriber growth, with about 1.4 million digital subscribers added in 2025. Management highlighted progress toward its long-term goal of reaching 15 million subscribers by 2027.

Outlook

The New York Times Company expects continued momentum in the first quarter of 2026, led by its digital businesses. The company guided for digital-only subscription revenue growth of roughly 14% to 17% year over year, with total subscription revenue rising about 9% to 11%. Advertising trends also appear favorable, with digital ad revenue projected to increase in the high-teens to low-twenties percent range and total advertising revenue expected to grow at a low-double-digit pace. At the same time, management expects adjusted operating costs to rise around 8% to 9%, reflecting continued investments in journalism, product development, and video initiatives.

Legal Battle Against OpenAI

The New York Times has taken a landmark step by suing OpenAI (and Microsoft) in late 2023 over alleged copyright infringement tied to AI training. Courts have allowed the case to move forward, rejecting OpenAI’s motion to dismiss most claims. A consequential data retention order—requiring OpenAI to store even deleted user chats—has also elevated the dispute into a broader battle over AI governance and privacy. OpenAI continues to dispute the claims and is seeking to reverse the retention requirement while defending the legality of its model training practices.

By early 2025, The Times spent $10.8 million on legal fees tied to the lawsuit. Overall, by the end of 2025, the lawsuit had progressed but not been decided, with courts allowing the core copyright claims to move forward while the parties fight over evidence and data access. The outcome is widely seen as a landmark test of whether using copyrighted material to train generative AI qualifies as fair use, a decision that could reshape how AI developers and media companies structure licensing agreements going forward.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

The New York Times Co. (NYT) is a media company focused on creating and distributing high-quality news and information. Currently, the company makes money through print newspapers, online advertising, and newspaper circulation fees. In 2011, the company launched its paid subscription service for NYTimes.com, adding a digital circulation revenue stream. A growing number of digital subscribers - subscribe to more than one of The Times’s products, which include the The Times, games, recipes, the Wirecutter review site, and The Athletic, a sports news website. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 12.8 million subscribers.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of New York Times's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Digital Subscriptions

• Subscriber Growth: The company ended FY25 with approximately 12.8 million total subscribers and is targeting 15 million subscribers by 2027. Continued growth in the digital bundle and cross product subscriptions could accelerate subscriber additions. If subscriber growth exceeds expectations, particularly through Games, Cooking, and The Athletic, it could drive upside to revenue estimates. Conversely, slower growth due to market saturation or increased competition could limit subscription revenue expansion.
• Pricing Power: The New York Times periodically raises prices on its digital bundle and core news subscription. Strong engagement and a differentiated brand provide some pricing power. If the company successfully implements additional price increases without meaningfully affecting churn, average revenue per user could rise faster than expected, supporting higher margins.

Digital Advertising

• Ad Market Recovery: Digital advertising revenue rebounded in FY25, benefiting from stronger demand and improved ad formats across the company's platforms. If brand advertising spending continues to recover and shifts toward premium publisher platforms, the New York Times could capture incremental revenue. However, cyclical weakness in advertising markets would create downside risk.


• First Party Data Advantage: With millions of logged in users and paying subscribers, the company has access to high quality first party data. This positions it well as advertisers shift away from third party cookies. Greater monetization of this data through targeted advertising could support further growth in digital ad revenue.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for New York Times at the top of the page.

KEY TRENDS

Digital content increasingly gaining relevance

Online media provides more abundantly available information, at a faster rate and at cheaper prices when compared to print media. This has effectively rendered print newspapers obsolete, and online reading is made further easier by tablets/smartphones, both physical circulation and print advertising within newspapers should see a decline going forward.

Growth of Paid Digital Media

Consumers are increasingly willing to pay for high quality digital content, particularly as misinformation concerns rise and trusted brands gain importance. The New York Times is well positioned to benefit from this shift due to its global reach and reputation for credible journalism.

Expansion of Bundled Media Products

The company is increasingly emphasizing its bundled subscription offering that combines News, Games, Cooking, and The Athletic. Bundling improves customer retention and raises average revenue per user, while also helping the company reach its target of 15 million subscribers by 2027.

AI and Content Rights Debate

The rapid growth of generative AI has created new risks and opportunities for media companies. The New York Times has taken a leading role in challenging the use of publisher content in AI training without compensation. The outcome of ongoing litigation could reshape licensing arrangements between technology platforms and news organizations.