VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Sales and Trading constitutes 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Deutsche Bank's stock.
2. Corporate Bank constitutes 27% of the Trefis price estimate for Deutsche Bank's stock.
3. Private Bank constitutes 23% of the Trefis price estimate for Deutsche Bank's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year 2025

Deutsche Bank reported full year 2025 net revenues of 30.2 billion Euro, representing a 4% increase year over year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the full year reached 3.12 Euro, a significant 15% jump from 2024 levels. Growth was primarily driven by a 10% surge in Investment Banking revenues and higher fee income in Asset Management, which helped offset the impact of normalizing interest rates on the Corporate and Private Bank segments.

Note: Deutsche Bank's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Capital Distribution Acceleration

Deutsche Bank announced a 50% increase in its planned share buybacks for 2026, totaling 1.5 billion Euro, alongside a proposed dividend of 0.68 Euro per share. This strategic pivot reflects the bank's successful completion of its "Operational Efficiency" program, which freed up significant capital. Management is now shifting focus toward aggressive shareholder returns as the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio remains robust at 13.8%, well above regulatory requirements.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Deutsche Bank's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Investment Bank

• Origination and Advisory Recovery: A rebound in global M&A activity and debt issuance has pushed advisory fees 20% higher than Trefis estimates. If this deal-making momentum continues through 2026, it could provide a 5-8% upside to our current valuation.
• FIC Trading Volatility: Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) trading remains the largest revenue contributor. However, tightening spreads and lower market volatility present a downside risk of 3% if trading volumes revert to pre-2023 averages.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Deutsche Bank at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Deutsche Bank is a global systemic financial institution operating through four main segments: the Investment Bank, Corporate Bank, Private Bank, and Asset Management (DWS). The firm generates revenue through interest income on loans, trading commissions, and management fees for overseeing 950 billion Euro in client assets.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Investment Bank remains the most critical driver of valuation due to its high-margin advisory services and global scale in fixed-income markets.

Dominant Fixed Income Franchise

Deutsche Bank maintains a top-five global position in FICC trading. This scale provides a massive liquidity pool and deep institutional relationships that are difficult for smaller European peers to replicate, ensuring steady flow-based revenue even in stagnant markets.

Strong European Corporate Footprint

The Corporate Bank serves as the "Hausbank" for Germany's Mittelstand and large multinationals. This provides a stable, low-cost deposit base and high-stickiness lending relationships that act as a defensive hedge against the higher volatility found in investment banking activities.

KEY TRENDS

Monetary Policy Normalization

As the European Central Bank (ECB) begins a steady cycle of rate cuts, Deutsche Bank is facing compression in net interest margins (NIM). The bank is responding by shifting its focus toward fee-based income in the Private Bank and Asset Management sectors to decouple earnings from interest rate sensitivity.

Post-Restructuring Cost Discipline

Following years of restructuring, the bank is now focused on a "Global Hausbank" strategy aimed at achieving a cost-income ratio below 62% by 2027. This involves heavy investment in automation and the decommissioning of legacy IT systems to improve operational leverage and close the valuation gap with US-based competitors.