VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Mobile Infrastructure constitutes 61% of the Trefis price estimate for Nokia's stock.
2. Network Infrastructure constitutes 39% of the Trefis price estimate for Nokia's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. Q4 - 2025 Snapshot

Nokia reported Q4 2025 revenue of about €6.1 billion, up roughly 3% year over year, reflecting modest improvement after a weak telecom spending cycle earlier in the year. Comparable operating profit came in near €1.0 billion with margins around 17%, while comparable EPS was roughly €0.16 per share, slightly below market expectations. Performance across segments was mixed. Network Infrastructure delivered strong growth, supported by demand for optical and data-center connectivity tied to AI and cloud expansion, whereas Mobile Networks remained constrained by cautious spending from telecom operators.

2. Organizational Restructuring and Segment Realignment

Nokia announced a revised operating structure beginning in 2026, consolidating its business into two primary segments: Mobile Infrastructure and Network Infrastructure. The move simplifies reporting and aligns the company with evolving demand across telecom and enterprise networking markets. The restructuring also reflects Nokia's focus on high growth opportunities in cloud networking, optical infrastructure, and AI driven data center connectivity.

3. Higher reliance on emerging markets

Nokia has seen its geographic mix of sales change a bit in recent quarters. For example, customers in the United States have scaled back on spending on 5G equipment as they work through inventory that they built over the last year. At the same time, Nokia's sales to India have soared, as 5G deployments gather pace in the country.

4. Guidance

Nokia guided for comparable operating profit of €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion in 2026, implying results that could range from roughly flat to mid-teens growth compared with about €2.0 billion in 2025. Management indicated that the outlook reflects gradual recovery in telecom equipment demand, particularly as spending by mobile operators stabilizes, while AI-driven data-center and optical network demand continues to support growth in the Network Infrastructure segment. At the same time, the company acknowledged ongoing uncertainty tied to operator capital-spending cycles, currency movements, and restructuring costs, which contributed to a relatively cautious guidance range. The midpoint of the outlook was slightly below analyst expectations, suggesting that while fundamentals may be stabilizing, Nokia is anticipating a measured rather than rapid rebound in profitability during 2026.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Nokia's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Nokia:

Below are key drivers of Nokia's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Network Infrastructure

• Optical and IP Networking Growth: Nokia's Network Infrastructure division has become its fastest-growing segment due to demand from hyperscalers, data centers, and broadband providers. If AI-driven data center networking and fiber deployment accelerate faster than expected, revenue growth could exceed current projections, driving higher operating margins and valuation upside. Conversely, slower telecom infrastructure spending could limit growth.
• Enterprise and Cloud Networking Expansion: Nokia is increasingly targeting enterprise networking and private wireless markets. If adoption of enterprise 5G and private networks expands across manufacturing, logistics, and utilities, Nokia could capture additional market share. However, competition from Cisco and other networking providers could constrain margin expansion.

Mobile Infrastructure

• 5G Investment Cycle Recovery: The Mobile Infrastructure segment has faced weak demand due to reduced operator capex following the initial 5G rollout. If telecom operators resume spending on 5G Advanced upgrades or begin preparing for early 6G infrastructure deployments, the segment could return to modest growth. However, prolonged delays in operator investment cycles could keep revenue flat or declining.
• Cost Optimization and Margin Improvement: Nokia has implemented restructuring initiatives and operational efficiency programs to improve profitability in its mobile networks business. Successful execution could lift operating margins and EBITDA over the next few years. Failure to achieve expected cost savings would pressure profitability.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Nokia at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Nokia is a global provider of telecommunications infrastructure, networking equipment, and technology licensing solutions. The company designs and sells mobile network infrastructure, optical and IP networking equipment, broadband access solutions, and software platforms used by telecom operators, enterprises, and governments. Nokia also generates revenue from intellectual property licensing through its portfolio of wireless technology patents.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Network Infrastructure is one of Nokia's most valuable segments, driven by strong growth prospects and its strategic role in cloud and data center connectivity.

Leadership in Optical and IP Networking

Nokia holds a strong position in optical transport networks and IP routing, which are critical components of modern telecom and cloud infrastructure. Growing demand for high-capacity data networks driven by cloud computing and artificial intelligence workloads is expanding the addressable market for these technologies.

Extensive Global Telecom Customer Base

Nokia maintains long-term relationships with major telecom operators worldwide. This installed base provides recurring opportunities for upgrades, network expansions, and software-driven services, supporting stable revenue streams.

Technology Licensing Portfolio

Nokia owns one of the largest portfolios of wireless communication patents globally. Licensing revenue from smartphone manufacturers and technology companies generates high-margin income and contributes significantly to overall profitability.

KEY TRENDS

Growth in Data Center and AI Networking

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence computing and cloud services is increasing demand for high-speed optical and IP networking infrastructure. Nokia is positioning its Network Infrastructure segment to benefit from hyperscaler investments in next-generation data center connectivity.

Telecom Operator Capex Cycles

Telecom infrastructure spending tends to move in multi-year investment cycles. After heavy investment in initial 5G deployment, operators have slowed spending, creating short-term pressure on mobile network vendors such as Nokia. Future upgrades such as 5G Advanced and eventual 6G deployment could restore growth in the coming years.