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Semi Could Add $2 Billion To Tesla's Topline By 2025
Tesla's all-electric Semi truck, which was unveiled in 2017, could go into limited production as soon as the end of next year.The Semi, which is priced starting at $150k for the 300 mile model and $180k for the 500-mile model, will cater to the Class 8 segment of the trucking market. Class 8 trucks are Heavy trucks with a weight limit of over 33k pounds.While it remains unclear if the trucking industry will take to Tesla's offering, considering the range flexibility and payload capacity of diesel trucks, Tesla does have an interesting value proposition, especially in terms of lower running costs.We estimate that the vehicle could bring in revenues of as much as $2 billion for Tesla by 2025. For perspective, the company is expected to post revenues of around $24 billion in 2019.
Overview Of The Class 8 Truck Market In The U.S.
The Pros & Cons Of Tesla's Semi Truck
Energy costs for the Tesla Semi will be less than half that of Diesel trucks, although there are concerns about payload and range
While upfront prices of the Semi are higher compared to diesel trucks ($150k to $180k versus $125k), Tesla is looking to justify its pricing by citing its lower-running costs.For instance, the Tesla truck is estimated to use under 2 Kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power per mile, implying a energy cost of about $0.24 per mile. In comparison, diesel trucks have fuel costs of close to $0.60 per mile. Considering that the average U.S. trucker does 68k miles a year, this could translate into savings of over $22k per year. However, it remains to be seen if the trucking industry will embrace these new vehicles considering range anxiety (500 miles for the top version). Moreover, the payload of the truck also remains unclear, and this could be a concern, as the weight of the battery could restrict overall weight carrying capacity.
References
Class 8 Truck sales data: Statistica
Truck Mileage: Bizjournals
Revenues of Top 5 vendors: Trefis estimates
