Here are some sample widgets you could interact with from this dashboard:
1. AUTOMOTIVE REVENUES: Q1 results in April should CONFIRM weaker deliveries and bookings, potential supply disruptions - leading to weaker outlook as well as lower expectations, with 2020 revenues likely to be ~40% lower than 2019Automotive demand sees a sharp decline over recessions and Tesla 's pricey vehicles could see sales plummet. Tesla's production also faces risks, as it has suspended manufacturing at its Fremont facility, which produces a bulk of its vehicles.Separately, there is a possibility that the sharp decline in crude oil prices to their lowest levels in close to 2 decades could also hurt demand for EVs. Tesla's Automotive Revenues are likely to fall from $21 billion in 2019 to $13 billion in 2020, if deliveries fall from 366k in 2019 to 230k in 2020.
Tesla Automotive Revenues [A x B]
Tesla Deliveries [A]
Tesla Average Selling Price [B]
3.1 TESLA'S P/S RATIO: Why Tesla's P/S multiple could fall to 1.5x
P/S Ratios can contract meaningfully over recessions, more so for cyclical industriesThe S&P saw its P/S multiple fall to 0.9x from levels of over 1.4x over the great recession of 2008. Ford also saw its P/S multiple fall by half over the recession of 2008. We believe Tesla could be more vulnerable, as it currently trades at a P/S higher than it did in 2018 and 2019 despite the significant risk that the current crisis poses to its revenues.
S&P 500 P/S Ratio
Ford P/S Ratio
Tesla might face a liquidity crunch as over $4 Billion debt matures over next 3 years, Tesla has $2.4 billion in bonds that mature between 2021 and 2023 as well as a credit agreement of $1.8 billion that matures between 2020 and 2023 (not shown in chart below). This adds up to at least $4.2 billion in debt payments between 2021-2023, not accounting for smaller non-recourse payments. While Tesla had over $6 billion in cash over Q4, its Free Cash Flows are likely to turn negative if sales see a decline of this magnitude, hurting its ability to service debt.
Tesla Recourse Debt (Principal) Due