Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $235.73 | Market Cap: $79.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $235.73Market Cap: $79.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q4 FY26 Revenue and Operating Margin Guidance. Snowflake's stock experienced a significant decline, reportedly falling by approximately 9-10% in pre-market or Thursday trading, following its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report on December 3, 2025. This downturn was primarily attributed to the company's Q4 fiscal 2026 product revenue guidance and a lower-than-expected operating margin forecast of 7%, compared to the 11% margin achieved in Q3.
2. Strong Q3 FY26 Financial Results. Despite the negative market reaction to the guidance, Snowflake's Q3 fiscal 2026 financial results, which ended October 31, 2025, were robust. The company reported total revenue of $1.21 billion, marking a 29% year-over-year increase, and product revenue of $1.16 billion, also up 29% year-over-year, both surpassing analyst estimates. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35 also exceeded consensus forecasts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNOW Return | - | 20% | -58% | 39% | -22% | 68% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 152% | 40% | -52% | 75% | -7% | 27% | 254% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNOW Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 65% | 32% | 60% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNOW Max Drawdown | - | -33% | -67% | -15% | -45% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -20% | -60% | -9% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRWD, DDOG, MDB, OKTA, TDC. See SNOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 254.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 319 days | 148 days |
Compare to CRWD, DDOG, MDB, OKTA, TDC
In The Past
Snowflake's stock fell -71.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -71.8% loss requires a 254.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Snowflake
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 210.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 43.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,987 |
| Op Inc LTM | -104 |
| FCF LTM | 786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 631 |
| CFO LTM | 845 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 687 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 43.6 |
| P/S | 11.6 |
| P/EBIT | -21.8 |
| P/E | -18.6 |
| P/CFO | 56.6 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3262024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3292023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3302022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |