Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $235.14 | Market Cap: $78.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $235.14Market Cap: $78.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.3% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Snowflake (SNOW) experienced a -1.6% movement between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025. This period was primarily influenced by the company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report and subsequent analyst reactions and guidance.
1. Weaker-than-expected Q4 2026 product revenue guidance: Despite beating Q3 2026 earnings and revenue estimates, Snowflake's shares dropped significantly after the company provided a product revenue outlook for Q4 fiscal year 2026 that was only slightly above consensus estimates, or even slightly below some high expectations. This indicated a projected slowdown in growth compared to previous quarters.
2. Concerns over product revenue growth deceleration: While Q3 2026 product revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, the forecasted 27% year-over-year growth for Q4 2026 product revenue (projected to be between $1.195 billion and $1.2 billion) signaled a deceleration. This slower growth outlook, partly attributed to discounts on large, long-term deals, concerned investors who had high expectations for continued rapid expansion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNOW Return | - | 20% | -58% | 39% | -22% | 52% | -17% |
| Peers Return | 152% | 40% | -52% | 75% | -7% | 26% | 252% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNOW Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 65% | 32% | 60% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNOW Max Drawdown | - | -33% | -67% | -15% | -45% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -20% | -60% | -9% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRWD, DDOG, MDB, OKTA, TDC. See SNOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 254.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 319 days | 148 days |
Compare to CRWD, DDOG, MDB, OKTA, TDC
In The Past
Snowflake's stock fell -71.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -71.8% loss requires a 254.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Snowflake
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 193.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,987 |
| Op Inc LTM | -104 |
| FCF LTM | 786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 631 |
| CFO LTM | 845 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 687 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.8 |
| P/S | 11.6 |
| P/EBIT | -21.8 |
| P/E | -18.6 |
| P/CFO | 56.6 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3262024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3292023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3302022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |