Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $222.83 | Market Cap: $75.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Snowflake (SNOW)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $222.83Market Cap: $75.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% | |
| Key risksSNOW key risks include [1] intense competition from major cloud providers and specialists like Databricks, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
| Key risksSNOW key risks include [1] intense competition from major cloud providers and specialists like Databricks, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining Snowflake's (SNOW) stock movement by -6.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Widening Net Loss and Increased Operating Expenses: Snowflake reported a net loss of $324.3 million for Q3 FY2025, a significant increase from the $214.3 million net loss in Q3 FY2024. This was accompanied by a higher net loss margin of 34% (up from 29%) and notable increases in operating expenses, including sales and marketing, and research and development costs.
2. Deceleration in Product Revenue Growth: Although Snowflake's Q3 FY2025 product revenue grew by 29% year-over-year, this growth rate marked a slight deceleration when compared to the 31-32% growth observed in the previous quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNOW Return | � | 20% | -58% | 39% | -22% | 43% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 27% | -37% | 79% | 99% | 47% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNOW Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 30% | 68% | 65% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNOW Max Drawdown | � | -33% | -67% | -15% | -45% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -9% | -45% | -2% | -5% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ORCL, PLTR. See SNOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 254.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 319 days | 148 days |
Compare to CRWD, DDOG, MDB, OKTA, TDC
In The Past
Snowflake's stock fell -71.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -71.8% loss requires a 254.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Snowflake Earnings Notes | |||
| Snowflake Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Snowflake Stock Surged 90%, Here's Why | |||
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Snowflake Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| SNOW Up 20% in One Week: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals? | |||
| SNOW Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Snowflake vs. O'Reilly Automotive: With Return Forecast Of 74%, Snowflake Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| Snowflake vs. Marriott International: With Return Forecast Of 74%, Snowflake Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| Snowflake vs. Fortinet: With Return Forecast Of 74%, Snowflake Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| Snowflake vs. Teradata: With Return Forecast Of 75%, Snowflake Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Snowflake Stock: AI Winner? | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| Can Snowflake Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Snowflake Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| What Is Happening With Snowflake Stock? | November 21st, 2025 | ||
| The Case For A 50% Downside In Snowflake Stock | November 5th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Snowflake
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 224.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,484.1 |
| Rev LTM | 177,414 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47,840 |
| FCF LTM | 7,637 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,916 |
| CFO LTM | 71,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 58,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,484.1 |
| P/S | 11.0 |
| P/EBIT | 26.8 |
| P/E | 34.3 |
| P/CFO | 24.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 153.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 74.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/3/2025 | -11.4% | -18.3% | |
| 8/27/2025 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | 13.4% | 12.9% | 19.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | 4.5% | 6.7% | -5.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | -14.7% | -17.4% | -18.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | -5.4% | -13.7% | -23.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -12.4% | -10.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3262024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3292023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3302022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |