Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $150.89 | Market Cap: $361.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $150.89Market Cap: $361.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 81x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 256x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 170x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 223x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Short seller report |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more. | Key risksPLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 81x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 256x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 170x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 223x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Short seller report |
| Key risksPLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Elevated Valuation and Post-Earnings Sell-Off Despite Strong Results.
Palantir Technologies reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 2, 2026, surpassing analyst expectations with revenue reaching $1.41 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 against a $0.23 consensus. The company also issued optimistic 2026 revenue guidance of $7.18 billion to $7.20 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts of $6.3 billion. However, despite these positive figures, the stock experienced a significant drop, plunging 11.62% immediately after the earnings release. This decline was largely attributed to valuation concerns, with analysts highlighting the stock's "unprecedented premium" of approximately 93 times its projected 2026 revenue. The company's forward price-to-earnings ratio also contracted from 240x in late 2025 to approximately 103x by early March 2026, indicating a multiple contraction in the market.
2. Substantial Insider Selling.
A significant volume of insider selling contributed to negative sentiment and downward pressure on Palantir's stock. On February 20, 2026, multiple high-ranking insiders collectively sold over $137 million worth of PLTR equity. This included CEO Alex Karp offloading approximately $65.9 million in shares, Director Stephen Cohen selling nearly $44 million, and Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar divesting over $22 million. Furthermore, a filing on March 2, 2026, revealed that billionaire director Peter Thiel sold 2 million shares valued at an estimated $280 million. These substantial divestitures by company leaders likely signaled a cautious outlook to investors, contributing to the stock's decline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.4% change in PLTR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.45 | 150.95 | -10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,896 | 4,475 | 14.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.1% | 36.3% | 29.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 365.0 | 222.7 | -39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,374 | 2,397 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | -10.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.4% | 47.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.7% change in PLTR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 156.71 | 150.95 | -3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,441 | 4,475 | 30.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 484.9 | 222.7 | -54.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,362 | 2,397 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | -3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 51.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 59.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.8% change in PLTR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 125.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.92 | 150.95 | 77.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,866 | 4,475 | 56.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 36.3% | 125.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 425.4 | 222.7 | -47.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,315 | 2,397 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 77.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 61.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 66.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1825.4% change in PLTR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 841.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.84 | 150.95 | 1825.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,906 | 4,475 | 134.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.6 | 80.9 | 841.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,087 | 2,397 | -12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1825.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 1825.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 51.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 52.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PLTR Return | -23% | -65% | 167% | 340% | 135% | -15% | 544% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -33% | 52% | 22% | 33% | -12% | 92% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PLTR Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 32% | 67% | 58% | 52% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PLTR Max Drawdown | -24% | -67% | -2% | -7% | -14% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -41% | -8% | -12% | -16% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM. See PLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PLTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 550.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 646 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 148 days |
Compare to MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM
In The Past
Palantir Technologies's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 550.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Like SAP or Oracle, but focused on being the central operating system for an organization's data, rather than its business processes.
2. A highly specialized Splunk or Microsoft Power BI that identifies hidden patterns in vast, disparate datasets to enable real-world operational responses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Palantir Gotham: A software platform designed for the intelligence community to identify patterns within datasets and facilitate real-world responses to identified threats.
- Palantir Foundry: A platform that serves as a central operating system for an organization's data, enabling users to integrate and analyze data in one place.
- Apollo: Software that allows customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Palantir Technologies Inc. sells its software platforms primarily to organizations, including government entities and commercial enterprises, rather than to individuals.
Based on the provided information, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- The Intelligence Community in the United States: This is a primary customer segment for Palantir, for which it builds and deploys software platforms to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations. This encompasses various U.S. government intelligence agencies.
- Large Organizations and Enterprises: Palantir Foundry is described as a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. This indicates a focus on large commercial companies across different industries, as well as potentially other government departments beyond the intelligence community.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alexander Karp, Chief Executive Officer
Alexander Karp is a co-founder of Palantir Technologies and has served as CEO since its early days. He earned a J.D. from Stanford Law School and a Ph.D. in neoclassical social theory from Goethe University Frankfurt. Before co-founding Palantir in 2003/2004, Karp established and managed the London-based money management firm Caedmon Group, through which he successfully managed investments for high-net-worth clients.
David Glazer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
David Glazer joined Palantir in July 2013 and became Chief Financial Officer in July 2020. Prior to this role, he held various leadership positions within the company, including Head of Finance, Head of Switzerland, and Investor Relations/Global Head of Real Estate. Before joining Palantir, Glazer was a corporate securities attorney at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, where he specialized in advising technology companies on IPOs, mergers, and corporate governance. He holds a J.D. from Emory University School of Law and a B.A. from Santa Clara University.
Shyam Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President
Shyam Sankar joined Palantir Technologies as its 13th employee in 2006. He pioneered the company's "Forward Deployed Engineer" model, which involves embedding engineers directly with clients to address complex data challenges. Sankar holds a B.S. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Cornell University and an M.S. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University. He also serves as Chairman of Ginkgo Bioworks.
Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer
Ryan Taylor has been with Palantir since 2010. Before assuming his current roles, he served as Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer at Palantir from 2020 to 2023. His professional journey includes roles as an Associate at Covington & Burling and a Law Clerk at the United States District Court for the Central District of California. Taylor holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and degrees in Management Science & Engineering and Computer Science from Stanford University.
Stephen Cohen, President and Secretary
Stephen Cohen is one of the co-founders of Palantir Technologies. He co-founded the company in 2003/2004 alongside Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, Joe Lonsdale, and Nathan Gettings. He has served in various positions with the company since its inception and is also a member of the Board of Directors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
- Reliance on Government Contracts and Reputational Risks: Palantir Technologies heavily relies on contracts with government agencies, including the intelligence community and defense sectors, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. This dependence exposes the company to risks associated with changes in government priorities, political shifts, budget cuts, and contract losses. Furthermore, the nature of its work, particularly in surveillance and data analytics for government entities, often raises concerns regarding data privacy, civil liberties, and ethical implications. Public scrutiny and political backlash related to its operations, especially with agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), can lead to reputational damage and impact its ability to secure new contracts or retain existing ones. Geopolitical tensions can also influence demand for its software, creating unpredictable revenue streams.
- High Valuation and Commercial Growth Uncertainty: Palantir's stock is frequently noted for its "excessively high" or "stretched" valuation, with high price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. This indicates that the company is "priced for perfection," leaving little margin for error and making the stock highly vulnerable to significant corrections if it fails to consistently meet ambitious growth expectations. While Palantir aims to diversify its revenue by expanding its commercial client base through its Foundry platform, this segment faces challenges. The company's software often involves large, complex, and costly implementations, which may limit its appeal to small and mid-sized businesses and slow down the scaling of its commercial operations, thus sustaining its reliance on government spending for overall growth.
- Intensifying Competition and Potential Loss of Differentiation: The data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors in which Palantir operates are highly competitive and rapidly evolving. The company faces increasing competition from well-established technology giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Databricks, as well as emerging startups that are developing rival AI platforms and data solutions. This competitive landscape could lead to an erosion of Palantir's pricing power and a loss of its competitive advantage if competitors achieve feature parity or if customers increasingly opt for in-house developed solutions rather than purchasing Palantir's platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing maturity and integration of native data, analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) services offered by major cloud hyperscalers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) represent a clear emerging threat. These platforms provide comprehensive and often more modular alternatives for enterprises to manage, analyze, and operationalize their data, directly competing with Palantir's Foundry and Apollo platforms by offering similar capabilities directly within the cloud environment. Furthermore, the rapid advancement and accessibility of open-source AI and ML frameworks and libraries empower organizations to build customized solutions with greater flexibility and potentially lower cost, reducing reliance on proprietary, end-to-end platforms like Palantir's.AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) over the next 2-3 years:
- Accelerated Adoption and Expansion of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP): Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is consistently highlighted as a primary driver of revenue growth, particularly within the U.S. commercial sector. The company's "bootcamp" go-to-market strategy for AIP is effectively shortening sales cycles and rapidly converting new clients by demonstrating how the platform can integrate generative AI with operational data and workflows to solve real-world business problems. This strategy is enabling triple-digit U.S. commercial growth.
- Strong Growth in U.S. Commercial Business: Palantir's U.S. commercial business, predominantly driven by its Foundry platform, is experiencing significant and accelerating year-over-year revenue increases. This momentum is fueled by strong demand for its AI-driven solutions and the platform's ability to help enterprises turn complex, siloed data into actionable intelligence across various use cases such as supply chain optimization and predictive manufacturing.
- Continued Expansion of Government Contracts: Palantir maintains a strong and growing presence in the government sector, especially with the U.S. government. The Gotham platform continues to be indispensable for governments and defense in mission-critical analytics, integrating vast datasets to identify threats and enhance situational awareness. Securing and expanding large government contracts remains a foundational driver of revenue.
- Increased Customer Lifetime Value and Net Dollar Retention: The company is demonstrating strong customer engagement and expansion, reflected in its high net dollar retention rate and record total contract value (TCV) bookings. Existing customers are increasingly expanding their use of Palantir's platforms, leading to sustained and growing revenue streams as they integrate and apply the software more broadly across their operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Palantir Technologies announced a $1 billion stock buyback program on August 8, 2023, with no specified end date.
- In 2024, the company repurchased and retired 2.1 million shares of its Class A common stock for $64.2 million.
- As of December 31, 2024, $935.8 million remained available for future repurchases under the authorized program.
Share Issuance
- Palantir's annual basic shares outstanding increased to $2.37 billion in 2025, up 5.31% from $2.25 billion in 2024.
- Basic shares outstanding for 2024 increased by 4.78% from $2.147 billion in 2023, which itself was a 4.05% increase from 2022.
- Diluted average shares outstanding grew from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Palantir has engaged in a program of investing in companies, including those going public via SPACs, in exchange for multi-year commitments to use its software.
- As of June 30, [year not specified, but context suggests 2021], the company committed $250 million to a group of 10 companies through SPACs, with potential commercial contracts valued at $428 million.
- No investments were purchased under Investment Agreements during the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, or 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Palantir Technologies' annual capital expenditures were $33.88 million in 2025, $12.63 million in 2024, and $15.11 million in 2023.
- In 2022, the company's capital expenditures were $40.03 million.
- Palantir is characterized as a "capital-light software player" maintaining minimal capital expenditures.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 1,570 | 1,222 | 1,072 | 897 | 610 |
| Commercial | 1,296 | 1,003 | 834 | 645 | 482 |
| Total | 2,866 | 2,225 | 1,906 | 1,542 | 1,093 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 948 | 725 | 621 | ||
| Commercial | 772 | 521 | 414 | ||
| Research and development expenses | -343 | -307 | -266 | ||
| General and administrative expenses | -375 | -343 | -366 | ||
| Stock-based compensation expense | -692 | -476 | -565 | ||
| Total | 310 | 120 | -161 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $150.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 361.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $153.85 | $162.76 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.9% | -7.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.8% | 58.3% |
| Downside Capture | 302.69 | 224.78 |
| Upside Capture | 235.76 | 248.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 35.7% | 60.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.75 | 1.92 | 2.28 | 2.48 | 1.96 | 2.25 |
| Up Beta | 1.49 | 1.65 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.73 | 1.99 |
| Down Beta | 1.07 | 0.14 | 0.80 | 2.02 | 1.70 | 1.83 |
| Up Capture | 324% | 169% | 279% | 332% | 614% | 19695% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 18 | 30 | 65 | 137 | 397 |
| Down Capture | 387% | 354% | 317% | 245% | 152% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 31 | 59 | 113 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 71.7% | 58.3% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 0.95 | 66.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 60.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 24.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 24.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 36.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 44.8% | 65.6% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.7% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 55.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 53.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 33.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 29.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 31.2% | 70.3% | 1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 49.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 29.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 25.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/2/2026 | 6.8% | -3.3% | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -14.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 13.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | -4.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | 39.3% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 23.5% | 45.5% | 68.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 10.4% | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | -15.1% | -16.9% | -8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 15.9% | 22.5% | 28.9% |
| Median Negative | -12.4% | -12.4% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 49.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -16.9% | -36.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 181.35 | 3,400 | 616,590 | 10,642,887 | Form | |
| 2 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 172.98 | 20,000 | 3,459,615 | 206,362,217 | Form | |
| 3 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 181.35 | 12,000 | 2,176,200 | 43,416,822 | Form |
| 4 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 185.91 | 9,000 | 1,673,190 | 76,899,626 | Form |
| 5 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 167.19 | 20,000 | 3,343,833 | 202,799,807 | Form |
PLTR Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is exceptionally attractive at over 4.0x. This is driven by the 'WIDENING' competitive moat and incredibly strong forward-looking growth indicators, which mandate a high (70%) probability of the upside scenario. While the valuation is high and risks are present, the potential reward from successfully executing the U.S. commercial expansion significantly outweighs the risk of a multiple compression based on current data.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits hyper-growth (+61% guided FY26 revenue), a secular AI tailwind, and a very high valuation (Forward P/E >100x), fitting the profile of a high-growth asset where growth durability and competitive moat are the primary focus areas for investors.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on the hyper-adoption of Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) within the U.S. commercial sector, which is translating into extreme revenue growth and massive operating leverage, fundamentally reshaping the company's financial profile from a government contractor to a high-margin enterprise SaaS leader.
- U.S. Commercial revenue growth accelerated to +137% YoY in Q4 2025, with FY26 guidance for at least 115% growth.
- Total Contract Value (TCV) Bookings grew 138% YoY in Q4 2025, a leading indicator for future revenue.
- Adjusted operating margin reached 57% in Q4 2025, driving a 'Rule of 40' score of 127, demonstrating elite profitability at scale.
- Net Dollar Retention (NDR) accelerated to 139% in Q4 2025, indicating strong expansion revenue from existing customers.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is an extreme over-reliance on the U.S. market for growth, coupled with a notable slowdown in the rate of new customer acquisition. While the U.S. is currently booming, the lack of traction internationally (+8% YoY growth) suggests a potential cap on the total addressable market and makes the entire growth story vulnerable to a U.S.-specific slowdown.
- International commercial revenue grew only 8% YoY in Q4 2025, versus 93% growth for the total U.S. business.
- Total customer count growth decelerated from 45% YoY in Q3 2025 to 34% YoY in Q4 2025.
- The negative stock reaction post-earnings, despite a massive beat, was attributed to concerns over the sustainability of new customer growth.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth YoY | Maintain >100% | This is the 'Alpha Driver' of the entire investment thesis. Any significant deceleration below the triple-digit mark would challenge the premium valuation. |
| Total Customer Count Growth YoY | Stabilize and re-accelerate above 35% | This is the primary 'Anti-Alpha' friction point. A stabilization or re-acceleration would neutralize the main bear argument and show the 'land' motion is still healthy. |
| Net Dollar Retention (NDR) | Maintain >130% | This metric quantifies the highly effective 'expand' motion. A sustained high NDR is crucial to offset any lumpiness in new customer acquisition and proves the stickiness of the platform. |
U.S. Hyper-Growth vs. New Customer Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Record U.S. commercial growth (+137%) and accelerating NDR (139%) prove the AIP platform's dominance and show a powerful, profitable expansion motion is intact.
CORE TENSION
Can explosive U.S. commercial growth and upselling (NDR) mask a decelerating new customer acquisition engine and poor international performance before valuation pressure mounts?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The market's negative reaction to Q4 2025 earnings, despite a +137% U.S. Commercial revenue beat, signals that decelerating customer count growth (from 45% to 34% YoY) is now the primary focus.
BEAR VIEW
Decelerating total customer growth (34% vs 45% prior quarter) and stagnant international sales (+8%) are leading indicators that the addressable market is limited.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth YoY > 115% AND Total Customer Count Growth stabilization. |
Anytime | Macro Shift / 10-Year Treasury Yields Watch: 10-Year Treasury Yield sustains above 4.5%, triggering rotation out of high-multiple growth stocks. |
Ongoing | Competitor AI Platform Launch Watch: Major announcements from Databricks, Snowflake, or Microsoft bundling competitive AI workflow tools into existing enterprise cloud agreements. |
Throughout 2026 | U.S. FY2027 Defense Budget Signals Watch: Announcements of major data analytics or AI contract awards from the Department of Defense or Intelligence Community. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-19 | Broad Tech Sector Sell-Off Details: The stock experienced a sharp pullback along with other high-growth tech names, driven by macroeconomic concerns and profit-taking after a strong rally. | Plummeted -9.4% $174.03 -> $157.75 |
2025-08-04 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Palantir beat Q2 estimates and raised its full-year 2025 guidance. Strong U.S. commercial customer growth of 64% YoY was a key driver, boosting investor confidence. | Surged +7.8% $160.66 -> $173.27 |
2025-09-18 | AIPCon 2025 Customer Conference Details: Annual conference showcasing new AI Platform features and customer success stories, reinforcing the product's momentum and driving positive sentiment. | Rose significantly by 3.1% $176.97 -> $182.39 |
2025-11-03 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Palantir reported a 63% YoY revenue surge, beating estimates, driven by a 121% explosion in U.S. commercial revenue, signaling a successful strategic pivot. Stock surged to a new high before profit-taking. | Reached 52-week high then pulled back $207.18 -> $177.93 |
2025-11-21 | UK NHS Contract Award Confirmed Details: Palantir was officially confirmed as the winner of the £330M contract for the UK National Health Service's Federated Data Platform, a major strategic international win. | Rose significantly by 4.8% $154.85 -> $162.25 |
2026-02-02 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Reported a significant beat on EPS and revenue, with astounding +61% YoY FY26 revenue guidance. Despite this, the stock fell on concerns over decelerating new customer growth. | Plummeted -5.6% $147.76 -> $139.54 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades with explosive volatility (4.6x S&P 500). While the moat is widening and visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and expensive valuation prevent a max-sized position. Sizing is capped to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
CRWD
SECTOROffers exposure to high-growth enterprise software via cybersecurity, a different driver than PLTR's data integration, with a more diversified customer base and a mature land-and-expand model.
DDOG
SECTORProvides exposure to the durable growth of cloud adoption via its leadership in observability. The business has high switching costs and a broad customer base, avoiding PLTR's concentration risks.
Palantir is re-rating from a specialized government data consultancy to a scalable, high-growth enterprise AI platform, evidenced by its U.S. Commercial revenue accelerating to 137% YoY growth in Q4 2025.
Filter all news through the lens of the U.S. Commercial business's ability to maintain hyper-growth and prove the scalability of its AI Platform (AIP).
U.S. Commercial revenue growth >100% YoY; total customer count growth >30% YoY; Net Dollar Retention >130%; major enterprise customer wins for AIP outside of government and defense.
Slowing U.S. Commercial growth below 70%; decline in Net Dollar Retention; significant deceleration in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO); evidence that high growth requires a proportional increase in high-cost forward deployed engineers, breaking the SaaS scalability thesis.
Volatility in government contract timing (common and expected); debates about the company's political affiliations (a long-standing factor already priced in); minor product updates that don't translate to new customer acquisition models.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid adoption of Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in the U.S. commercial sector is the primary catalyst. This is shifting the narrative from a lumpy, services-heavy government contractor to a high-margin, scalable SaaS company. The key evidence is the 137% YoY growth in U.S. Commercial revenue in Q4 2025, with management guiding for over 115% growth in that segment for the full year 2026.
Government Data Platforms
$2402000.0B TTM (54% of Total) · 84% MarginWhat It Is
Palantir Gotham: An AI-enabled platform used by intelligence, defense, and law enforcement agencies for data integration and analysis to identify threats and plan missions.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Army, CIA, FBI, and other defense agencies pay multi-million dollar, multi-year contracts because the Gotham platform integrates their siloed data systems, creating high switching costs and becoming mission-critical for intelligence analysis and operational planning.
Competition
Commercial Enterprise AI Platforms
$2073000.0B TTM (46% of Total) · 84% MarginWhat It Is
Palantir Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP): Software platforms that allow large companies to integrate vast, disparate data sources (e.g., supply chain, CRM, sensor data) to build AI-driven applications for operational decision-making.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises like Airbus and Merck pay multi-million dollar subscriptions because Foundry creates a central 'operating system' for their data, allowing them to solve complex problems like optimizing supply chains or accelerating drug development, which is deeply integrated and difficult to replace.
Competition
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