Palladyne AI (PDYN)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $7.0 | Market Cap: $315.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Palladyne AI (PDYN)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $7.0Market Cap: $315.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include AI Software Platforms. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -529% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -18% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -429%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -438% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% Key risksPDYN key risks include [1] significant unprofitability from its unproven, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include AI Software Platforms. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -529% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -18% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -429%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -438% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Key risksPDYN key risks include [1] significant unprofitability from its unproven, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 6/17/2026
Palladyne AI (PDYN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report tempered positive revenue growth with a wider net loss.
Palladyne AI reported a substantial 107% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.54 million in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. However, this positive was significantly offset by an EPS miss of $0.12 (reporting -$0.28 against an expected -$0.17) and a revenue miss of $1.39 million against analyst consensus. The company's GAAP net loss also widened to $12.6 million for the quarter. This dichotomy of strong top-line growth coupled with missed earnings estimates and increased losses contributed to investor indecision, preventing a clear upward or downward trend.
2. Increased backlog and future revenue guidance were balanced by ongoing cash burn concerns.
The company demonstrated continued momentum by reporting an approximate $17 million backlog as of March 31, 2026, which included roughly $7 million in new contract awards during fiscal Q1 2026. Palladyne AI also reiterated its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $24 million to $27 million, indicating significant anticipated growth. However, this forward-looking optimism was mitigated by an operating cash usage of $10.239 million in fiscal Q1 2026, with management projecting average consolidated quarterly operating cash usage of approximately $8 million to $9 million for fiscal 2026, leading to investor apprehension about capital requirements and potential dilution.
Show more
Palladyne AI (PDYN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report tempered positive revenue growth with a wider net loss.
Palladyne AI reported a substantial 107% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.54 million in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. However, this positive was significantly offset by an EPS miss of $0.12 (reporting -$0.28 against an expected -$0.17) and a revenue miss of $1.39 million against analyst consensus. The company's GAAP net loss also widened to $12.6 million for the quarter. This dichotomy of strong top-line growth coupled with missed earnings estimates and increased losses contributed to investor indecision, preventing a clear upward or downward trend.
2. Increased backlog and future revenue guidance were balanced by ongoing cash burn concerns.
The company demonstrated continued momentum by reporting an approximate $17 million backlog as of March 31, 2026, which included roughly $7 million in new contract awards during fiscal Q1 2026. Palladyne AI also reiterated its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $24 million to $27 million, indicating significant anticipated growth. However, this forward-looking optimism was mitigated by an operating cash usage of $10.239 million in fiscal Q1 2026, with management projecting average consolidated quarterly operating cash usage of approximately $8 million to $9 million for fiscal 2026, leading to investor apprehension about capital requirements and potential dilution.
Show more
Updated on 6/17/2026
Palladyne AI (PDYN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report tempered positive revenue growth with a wider net loss.
Palladyne AI reported a substantial 107% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.54 million in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. However, this positive was significantly offset by an EPS miss of $0.12 (reporting -$0.28 against an expected -$0.17) and a revenue miss of $1.39 million against analyst consensus. The company's GAAP net loss also widened to $12.6 million for the quarter. This dichotomy of strong top-line growth coupled with missed earnings estimates and increased losses contributed to investor indecision, preventing a clear upward or downward trend.
2. Increased backlog and future revenue guidance were balanced by ongoing cash burn concerns.
The company demonstrated continued momentum by reporting an approximate $17 million backlog as of March 31, 2026, which included roughly $7 million in new contract awards during fiscal Q1 2026. Palladyne AI also reiterated its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $24 million to $27 million, indicating significant anticipated growth. However, this forward-looking optimism was mitigated by an operating cash usage of $10.239 million in fiscal Q1 2026, with management projecting average consolidated quarterly operating cash usage of approximately $8 million to $9 million for fiscal 2026, leading to investor apprehension about capital requirements and potential dilution.
3. Strategic partnerships and defense contract wins provided catalysts, yet inherent stock volatility persisted.
Key positive developments included a strategic partnership announced on June 9, 2026, with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for manufacturing and marketing loitering munition systems, alongside competitive U.S. Army contracts for its SwarmOS autonomous swarm software and Gremlin-X mini-bomber UAV. These initiatives underscored Palladyne AI's strong position in the defense AI sector. Despite these significant catalysts, the stock's high beta, ranging from 3.03 to 3.51, indicates considerable price volatility, resulting in rapid fluctuations that ultimately led to the stock largely maintaining its overall level rather than establishing a sustained trend.
4. Mixed analyst sentiment and price target adjustments created diverging views on the stock's valuation.
Analyst coverage for PDYN presented a mixed picture. While some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings with a median price target of $11.50 from two analysts, ranging from $7.00 to $15.00, others adjusted their outlooks. Specifically, Jefferies lowered its price target to $7.00 with a "Hold" rating post-fiscal Q1 2026 results, and Alliance Global reduced its target to $12.00 while keeping a "Buy" rating. This range of expert opinions, reflecting both long-term potential and immediate financial challenges, contributed to the stock's inability to establish a decisive directional movement.
Show less
Palladyne AI (PDYN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report tempered positive revenue growth with a wider net loss.
Palladyne AI reported a substantial 107% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.54 million in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. However, this positive was significantly offset by an EPS miss of $0.12 (reporting -$0.28 against an expected -$0.17) and a revenue miss of $1.39 million against analyst consensus. The company's GAAP net loss also widened to $12.6 million for the quarter. This dichotomy of strong top-line growth coupled with missed earnings estimates and increased losses contributed to investor indecision, preventing a clear upward or downward trend.
2. Increased backlog and future revenue guidance were balanced by ongoing cash burn concerns.
The company demonstrated continued momentum by reporting an approximate $17 million backlog as of March 31, 2026, which included roughly $7 million in new contract awards during fiscal Q1 2026. Palladyne AI also reiterated its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $24 million to $27 million, indicating significant anticipated growth. However, this forward-looking optimism was mitigated by an operating cash usage of $10.239 million in fiscal Q1 2026, with management projecting average consolidated quarterly operating cash usage of approximately $8 million to $9 million for fiscal 2026, leading to investor apprehension about capital requirements and potential dilution.
3. Strategic partnerships and defense contract wins provided catalysts, yet inherent stock volatility persisted.
Key positive developments included a strategic partnership announced on June 9, 2026, with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for manufacturing and marketing loitering munition systems, alongside competitive U.S. Army contracts for its SwarmOS autonomous swarm software and Gremlin-X mini-bomber UAV. These initiatives underscored Palladyne AI's strong position in the defense AI sector. Despite these significant catalysts, the stock's high beta, ranging from 3.03 to 3.51, indicates considerable price volatility, resulting in rapid fluctuations that ultimately led to the stock largely maintaining its overall level rather than establishing a sustained trend.
4. Mixed analyst sentiment and price target adjustments created diverging views on the stock's valuation.
Analyst coverage for PDYN presented a mixed picture. While some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings with a median price target of $11.50 from two analysts, ranging from $7.00 to $15.00, others adjusted their outlooks. Specifically, Jefferies lowered its price target to $7.00 with a "Hold" rating post-fiscal Q1 2026 results, and Alliance Global reduced its target to $12.00 while keeping a "Buy" rating. This range of expert opinions, reflecting both long-term potential and immediate financial challenges, contributed to the stock's inability to establish a decisive directional movement.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.4% change in PDYN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.03 | 7.00 | -0.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4 | 7 | 62.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 65.5 | 44.6 | -31.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 40 | 45 | -10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDYN | -0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 34.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 38.1% | 43.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.8% change in PDYN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.70 | 7.00 | 22.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4 | 7 | 62.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 53.1 | 44.6 | -16.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 40 | 45 | -10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDYN | 22.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 35.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.1% | 40.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.1% change in PDYN stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.87 | 7.00 | -11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6 | 7 | 16.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 53.4 | 44.6 | -16.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 41 | 45 | -8.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDYN | -11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 66.8% | 38.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 199.1% change in PDYN stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 1106.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.34 | 7.00 | 199.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16 | 7 | -56.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.7 | 44.6 | 1106.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 45 | -43.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 199.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDYN | 199.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 18.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.9% | 17.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PDYN Return | 3% | -94% | -79% | 1601% | -65% | 63% | -88% |
| Peers Return | 54% | -46% | 126% | 66% | 28% | -1% | 292% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PDYN Win Rate | 60% | 25% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 30% | 77% | 68% | 53% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PDYN Max Drawdown | - | -94% | -90% | -57% | -67% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -54% | -16% | -21% | -30% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PDYN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 184.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 501 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Palladyne AI's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PDYN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 184.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 501 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Palladyne AI's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Palladyne AI (PDYN)
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Palladyne AI (PDYN) is a software company focused on significantly enhancing the utility and functionality of existing third-party robotic systems. The company develops an advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) software platform. This platform is designed to make both stationary and mobile robots more intelligent and autonomous, enabling them to observe their surroundings, learn from experiences, reason about situations, and execute actions effectively in both structured and unstructured environments.
The core value proposition of Palladyne AI's software platform lies in its ability to empower robotic systems to dynamically perceive their environment. This allows robots to quickly adapt to changing circumstances by generalizing from prior experiences, rather than relying on rigid, pre-programmed instructions. A key benefit for customers is the ability to achieve dynamic, real-time robot operations with significantly less need for extensive programming or time-consuming robot training, thereby boosting operational efficiency and flexibility.
Palladyne AI serves a diverse range of industries within the United States. Its customer base includes critical sectors such as industrial manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, and defense. Furthermore, the company's solutions cater to needs in infrastructure maintenance and repair, energy, and aerospace and aviation, among other industries seeking to leverage advanced robotic intelligence for improved performance and operational capabilities.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Palladyne AI:
- Palladyne AI is like NVIDIA for robotic brains, providing the core AI software that makes third-party robots smart and adaptable.
- Palladyne AI is like Android or Windows for robots, offering the advanced AI operating system that allows diverse robotic hardware to learn, perceive, and act intelligently.
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- AI/ML Software Platform: This software platform enhances the utility and functionality of third-party stationary and mobile robotic systems, enabling them to observe, learn, reason, and act in various environments with minimal programming.
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Ben Wolff, Chief Executive Officer
Ben Wolff was appointed CEO in February 2024 and has held various leadership roles at Palladyne AI Corp. throughout the years, including prior President and CEO and Chairman of the Board of Directors. He is also a Co-Founder of Palladyne AI Corp. Prior to his current role, Mr. Wolff served as CEO, President, and Chairman at Pendrell Corporation from December 2009 to November 2014. He also co-founded Clearwire Corporation in April 2004, where he served as President and CEO until March 2009 and Co-Chairman until October 2011. In 2015, Mr. Wolff led a consortium that acquired Sarcos (now Palladyne AI) from Raytheon.
Trevor Thatcher, Chief Financial Officer
Trevor Thatcher serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Palladyne AI Corp.
Denis Garagic, Chief Technology Officer
Denis Garagic is a Co-Founder and the Chief Technology Officer of Palladyne AI Corp. Before joining Palladyne AI, he was at BAE Systems FAST Labs from April 2007 to May 2020, where he focused on creating cognitive computing solutions for the Department of Defense and intelligence community. Dr. Garagic also served as a Technical Review Authority, Principal Investigator, or Research Lead on various programs, including those for DARPA and Air Force Research Labs.
Steve Sonne, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Steve Sonne holds the positions of Chief Legal Officer and Secretary at Palladyne AI Corp.
Matthew Muta, President of Commercial & Industrial
Matthew Muta was appointed President of Commercial and Industrial, effective March 2, 2026. He previously served as a long-time board member of Palladyne AI. Mr. Muta brings experience from senior roles at Microsoft, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group, where his work focused on enterprise software adoption and platform strategy.
Ben Wolff was appointed CEO in February 2024 and has held various leadership roles at Palladyne AI Corp. throughout the years, including prior President and CEO and Chairman of the Board of Directors. He is also a Co-Founder of Palladyne AI Corp. Prior to his current role, Mr. Wolff served as CEO, President, and Chairman at Pendrell Corporation from December 2009 to November 2014. He also co-founded Clearwire Corporation in April 2004, where he served as President and CEO until March 2009 and Co-Chairman until October 2011. In 2015, Mr. Wolff led a consortium that acquired Sarcos (now Palladyne AI) from Raytheon.
Trevor Thatcher, Chief Financial Officer
Trevor Thatcher serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Palladyne AI Corp.
Denis Garagic, Chief Technology Officer
Denis Garagic is a Co-Founder and the Chief Technology Officer of Palladyne AI Corp. Before joining Palladyne AI, he was at BAE Systems FAST Labs from April 2007 to May 2020, where he focused on creating cognitive computing solutions for the Department of Defense and intelligence community. Dr. Garagic also served as a Technical Review Authority, Principal Investigator, or Research Lead on various programs, including those for DARPA and Air Force Research Labs.
Steve Sonne, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Steve Sonne holds the positions of Chief Legal Officer and Secretary at Palladyne AI Corp.
Matthew Muta, President of Commercial & Industrial
Matthew Muta was appointed President of Commercial and Industrial, effective March 2, 2026. He previously served as a long-time board member of Palladyne AI. Mr. Muta brings experience from senior roles at Microsoft, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group, where his work focused on enterprise software adoption and platform strategy.
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Key Risks to Palladyne AI (PDYN)
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History of Losses and Unproven Commercialization
Palladyne AI, formerly Sarcos Technology and Robotics Corporation, has a significant history of operational losses and negative cash flows, with management anticipating continued losses for the foreseeable future. A primary risk is the unproven commercialization of its AI/ML products and the uncertainty surrounding long sales cycles and market adoption rates for its new licensing sales model. The company previously struggled to commercialize its hardware-centric robotic solutions, and the success of its current software-focused business model has yet to be fully demonstrated. -
Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Obsolescence
The market for AI/ML software platforms and robotics is highly competitive and characterized by rapid innovation. Palladyne AI faces significant competitive pressure from larger, more established robotics and industrial players, which could hinder its ability to gain market share or sustain its technological advantage. The fast pace of technological change in the AI and robotics sectors also poses a risk of its software platform becoming obsolete if it cannot continuously innovate and adapt. -
Execution Risk of Strategic Repositioning and Acquisitions
The company recently underwent a strategic repositioning, pivoting to a software-driven embodied AI and defense autonomy platform, which included acquisitions in late 2025. Integrating these new subsidiaries and building upon existing relationships present significant execution risks. Palladyne AI must successfully execute its growth forecasts, convert pilot programs into scalable licenses, and prove the return on investment of its new offerings to justify its current valuation and achieve profitability.
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Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN) develops an Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) software platform designed to enhance the utility and functionality of third-party stationary and mobile robotic systems across various industries. The addressable markets for their main products and services are substantial and span globally, with significant growth projected in several key regions, including North America.
The global robotic software market, which directly relates to Palladyne AI's offering, was valued at approximately USD 20 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 150 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global robot software market at USD 24.37 billion in 2025, expanding to USD 78.81 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 21.62%. Specifically, the software segment within the broader Artificial Intelligence (AI) robots market is expected to hold a significant share, with the global AI robots market itself estimated at USD 20.82 billion in 2025 and projected to reach USD 149.34 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 32.5% from 2025 to 2032. In the U.S., the AI in robotic platforms market was estimated at USD 5.3 billion in 2024, with a significant growth trajectory at a CAGR of 31.6%.
For the specific industries Palladyne AI serves, the addressable markets for AI/ML software and robotics include:
- Warehousing and Logistics: The global AI robotics in warehousing market was valued at USD 12.45 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 100.13 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 23.18% from 2025 to 2034. North America held a dominant presence in this market in 2024, accounting for an estimated 40% market share. The software segment within the AI in warehousing market held the highest market share of 52.34% in 2025 globally. In the U.S., the AI in warehousing market is projected to reach USD 3.9 billion by 2026.
- Industrial Manufacturing: The global AI-driven industrial robotics market size is calculated at USD 8.98 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 49.11 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 20.77% from 2025 to 2034. North America is expected to experience the fastest growth in this market during the forecast period.
- Defense, Aerospace, and Aviation: The global AI and robotics in aerospace and defense market was valued at USD 32.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 67.9 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.7% from 2025 to 2034. North America held the largest share of 34.5% in this market in 2024. The software sub-segment accounted for the highest market share in 2021 and is estimated to show the fastest growth within this sector. More broadly, the global aerospace artificial intelligence market, where software holds a significant share, was estimated at USD 1.40 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach approximately USD 50.20 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 43.04% from 2025 to 2034. The U.S. aerospace artificial intelligence market alone is projected to be worth around USD 15.22 billion by 2034. The military robots market globally was valued at USD 20.26 billion in 2025 and is set to exceed USD 45.81 billion by 2035, driven by the increasing adoption of AI/ML. North America is projected to capture the largest revenue share of 51.5% by 2035 in the military robots market. The AI in aviation market globally reached USD 2.9 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 23.8 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 22.7% from 2025 to 2033.
- Energy: The global AI in energy market was estimated at USD 11.30 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 54.83 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 30.2% from 2025 to 2030. The robotics segment held a 21% revenue share in the AI in energy market in 2023. North America remains the largest market for AI in energy management.
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Palladyne AI (PDYN) Revenue Growth Drivers
Palladyne AI (PDYN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
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Acquisitions and Vertical Integration: Palladyne AI's strategic acquisitions of GuideTech, Warnke Precision Machining, and MKR Fabricators in late 2025 have been instrumental in transforming the company into a vertically integrated defense and industrial AI platform. These acquisitions are anticipated to significantly contribute to revenue, particularly through defense contracts and expanded manufacturing capabilities.
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Commercialization and Adoption of Advanced AI/ML Software: The company's focus on commercializing its Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) software platforms, including the recently launched Palladyne IQ 2.0 (which has secured its first customer), SwarmOS, and Palladyne Pilot, is a crucial driver. These platforms are designed to enhance the utility and functionality of third-party robotic systems, with expectations for initial defense and homeland security customer adoption for SwarmOS and BRAIN X2, and commercial deployments of Palladyne IQ 2.0 and Palladyne Pilot.
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Expansion into Defense and Space Markets: Palladyne AI is aggressively expanding its presence in the defense and space sectors. This includes the establishment of Palladyne Defense, securing contracts related to collaborative autonomy and swarming in defense, and engaging in satellite-related development programs with the Air Force Research Laboratory, as well as propulsion design for next-generation spacecraft with Portal Space Systems. This strategic focus is a major growth catalyst.
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Conversion of Growing Backlog and New Contract Wins: The company has reported a substantial and increasing contracted backlog, which reached nearly $18 million by mid-February 2026. This backlog, largely stemming from recent acquisitions and new customer programs, is expected to convert into recognized revenue over the coming 12-18 months. Continued success in securing new contracts, particularly within the defense and early commercial sectors, will further bolster revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
No significant share repurchases were identified for general share buyback programs in the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- In September 2021, as Sarcos Technology and Robotics Corporation, the company completed a business combination with Rotor Acquisition Corp., which resulted in gross proceeds exceeding $260 million. This included a $220 million Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) financing.
- In the first half of 2025, Palladyne AI raised $34.8 million, net of commissions and offering expenses, through at-the-market offerings and the exercise of warrants.
- Shares outstanding increased to 46 million in fiscal year 2025.
Inbound Investments
- The company's going public via a SPAC merger with Rotor Acquisition Corp. in September 2021 generated over $260 million in gross proceeds. This included a $220 million PIPE investment from various third-parties, such as BlackRock, Millennium Management, and Palantir Technologies Inc.
Outbound Investments
- Sarcos acquired RE2 Robotics (RE2, Inc.), which impacted research and development expenses in Q1 2023.
- In November 2025, Palladyne AI completed the acquisitions of GuideTech, Warnke Precision Machining, and MKR Fabricators, which expanded its capabilities into advanced avionics, engineering services, and manufacturing.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $713K in fiscal year 2025, representing a 169.1% increase from the prior year, funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- In 2022, the company estimated its monthly cash burn from operations and capital expenditures would average $5.5 million.
- Following a strategic shift in late 2023, the primary focus of capital allocation and investment has been on developing and commercializing its AI/ML Software Platform. The company also continues to invest in its SwarmOS and IQ products.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Palladyne AI Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Palladyne AI Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 306.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,721.5 |
| Rev LTM | 285,882 |
| Op Inc LTM | 113,361 |
| FCF LTM | 56,341 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59,787 |
| CFO LTM | 137,090 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 109,675 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 37.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 36.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/08/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -44.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.71 | $6.84 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 94.7% | 105.3% |
| Downside Capture | 429.06 | 385.99 |
| Upside Capture | 264.49 | 257.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.2% | 37.0% |
PDYN Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.32 | 2.96 | 3.27 | 1.91 |
| Up Beta | -1.72 | -0.59 | 1.16 | 1.94 | 3.34 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 4.60 | 3.15 | 4.25 | 3.36 | 3.75 | 1.43 |
| Up Capture | 560% | 293% | 276% | 608% | 615% | 8368% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 30 | 55 | 108 | 319 |
| Down Capture | 192% | 340% | 227% | 237% | 200% | 114% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 33 | 69 | 140 | 419 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDYN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDYN | -15.8% | 105.0% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 59.9% | 23.1% | 1.96 | 39.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 36.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 19.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 1.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 30.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDYN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDYN | -34.5% | 137.5% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.9% | 25.3% | 0.80 | 18.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 18.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 12.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDYN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDYN | -18.9% | 133.9% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.4% | 24.7% | 0.93 | 18.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 18.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 10.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 12.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -5.8% | 1.1% | 19.8% |
| 3/5/2026 | 34.1% | 0.0% | -12.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | 13.7% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| 11/12/2025 | -0.6% | -17.3% | -28.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -12.2% | -5.2% | -17.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.6% | -18.0% | -12.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.0% | -5.7% | -7.0% |
| 11/14/2023 | 8.6% | 7.9% | -6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 7.9% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -15.4% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 34.1% | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -21.4% | -47.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -5.8% | 1.1% | 19.8% |
| 3/5/2026 | 34.1% | 0.0% | -12.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | 13.7% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| 11/12/2025 | -0.6% | -17.3% | -28.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -12.2% | -5.2% | -17.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.6% | -18.0% | -12.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.0% | -5.7% | -7.0% |
| 11/14/2023 | 8.6% | 7.9% | -6.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -10.1% | -21.4% | -37.1% |
| 5/10/2023 | -7.9% | -13.5% | -16.6% |
| 3/16/2023 | -8.7% | -9.5% | -0.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -9.1% | -21.1% | -47.1% |
| 8/9/2022 | 7.1% | 13.9% | 17.6% |
| 5/11/2022 | 9.6% | 23.8% | -1.6% |
| 11/9/2021 | -0.1% | 24.3% | 18.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 7.9% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -15.4% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 34.1% | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -21.4% | -47.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/29/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 24.00 Mil | 25.50 Mil | 27.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Cash Usage | 8.00 Mil | 8.50 Mil | 9.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Backlog | 18.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | 24.00 Mil | 25.50 Mil | 27.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 357.0% | 386.0% | 415.0% | -0.5% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 388.0% for 2026 |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 4,561 | 28,023 | 1,079,482 | Form |
| 2 | Sonne, Stephen | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 5,245 | 32,225 | 1,213,379 | Form |
| 3 | Garagic, Denis | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 17,176 | 105,529 | 3,440,388 | Form |
| 4 | Wolff, Benjamin G | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Buy | 3302026 | 5.85 | 1,000 | 5,850 | 16,598,796 | Form |
| 5 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.55 | 7,649 | 57,750 | 1,383,824 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 4,561 | 28,023 | 1,079,482 | Form |
| 2 | Sonne, Stephen | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 5,245 | 32,225 | 1,213,379 | Form |
| 3 | Garagic, Denis | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 6.14 | 17,176 | 105,529 | 3,440,388 | Form |
| 4 | Wolff, Benjamin G | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Buy | 3302026 | 5.85 | 1,000 | 5,850 | 16,598,796 | Form |
| 5 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.55 | 7,649 | 57,750 | 1,383,824 | Form |
| 6 | Sonne, Stephen | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.55 | 6,802 | 51,355 | 1,556,855 | Form |
| 7 | Garagic, Denis | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.55 | 12,945 | 97,735 | 4,471,744 | Form |
| 8 | Young, Michael T | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 5.19 | 3,000 | 15,569 | 119,983 | Form | |
| 9 | Wolff, Benjamin G | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 5.29 | 3,000 | 15,860 | 14,995,201 | Form |
| 10 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 5.11 | 2,648 | 13,539 | 843,306 | Form |
| 11 | Sonne, Stephen | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 5.11 | 3,411 | 17,440 | 956,153 | Form |
| 12 | Martindale, Kristi | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 5.11 | 6,753 | 34,527 | 1,561,904 | Form |
| 13 | Garagic, Denis | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 5.11 | 15,611 | 79,817 | 2,910,508 | Form |
| 14 | Wolff, Benjamin G | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 5.40 | 8,000 | 43,232 | 15,311,699 | Form |
| 15 | Young, Michael T | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 5.61 | 5,300 | 29,718 | 112,811 | Form | |
| 16 | Wolff, Benjamin G | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11182025 | 5.49 | 7,000 | 38,396 | 15,497,890 | Form |
| 17 | Thatcher, Trevor | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 7.42 | 2,512 | 18,632 | 1,243,028 | Form |
| 18 | Sonne, Stephen | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 7.42 | 3,236 | 24,002 | 1,412,395 | Form |
| 19 | Martindale, Kristi | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 7.42 | 6,406 | 47,515 | 2,315,948 | Form |
| 20 | Garagic, Denis | CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 7.42 | 14,809 | 109,843 | 4,338,075 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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