McKesson (MCK)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $749.0 | Market Cap: $92.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Distributors
McKesson (MCK)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $749.0Market Cap: $92.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Distributors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 11% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.4 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Precision Medicine, and Cloud Computing. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.5% | Key risksMCK key risks include [1] significant ongoing liabilities from litigation over its role in opioid distribution and [2] legal challenges related to allegations of misleading investors about generic drug pricing. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.4 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Precision Medicine, and Cloud Computing. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.5% |
| Key risksMCK key risks include [1] significant ongoing liabilities from litigation over its role in opioid distribution and [2] legal challenges related to allegations of misleading investors about generic drug pricing. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Concerns over potential margin compression from GLP-1 drug pricing. McKesson's stock has experienced downward pressure in recent weeks due to investor concerns about the potential impact of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drug pricing on distribution margins within the pharmaceutical distribution sector. This industry-specific factor suggests that future growth from these high-volume drugs could plateau, affecting the company's valuation.
2. Market sensitivity to thin profitability. McKesson's shares faced pressure as investors focused on the company's relatively thin profit margin, which stood at 1.09% as of March 5, 2026. This limited cushion makes the stock particularly sensitive to any indications of rising costs or shifts in reimbursement dynamics within the large-scale healthcare distribution industry, exacerbating downward movements when market sentiment in the healthcare sector becomes defensive.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.5% change in MCK stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 830.52 | 743.67 | -10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 387,094 | 397,958 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.5 | 21.1 | -17.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 123 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCK | -10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.6% | 7.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.2% change in MCK stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 809.91 | 743.67 | -8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 377,595 | 397,958 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 1.1% | 30.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.0 | 21.1 | -34.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 125 | 123 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCK | -8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.6% | 16.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.7% change in MCK stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 709.98 | 743.67 | 4.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 344,583 | 397,958 | 15.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 1.1% | 33.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 21.1 | -33.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 123 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCK | 4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 1.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.4% | 21.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 106.8% change in MCK stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 359.67 | 743.67 | 106.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 273,903 | 397,958 | 45.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 21.1 | 31.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 123 | 13.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 106.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCK | 106.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.5% | 24.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCK Return | 44% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 45% | -2% | 374% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 19% | 10% | -5% | 55% | -3% | 140% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 93% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCK Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 56% | 52% | 46% | 65% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCK Max Drawdown | -3% | -2% | -10% | 0% | -1% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -8% | -18% | -16% | -3% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COR, CAH, CVS, HSIC. See MCK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1995 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 123 days |
In The Past
McKesson's stock fell -0.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1995 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 495 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
McKesson's stock fell -0.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About McKesson (MCK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The Amazon for the healthcare supply chain.
- The FedEx/UPS for prescription medications and medical supplies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Pharmaceutical Distribution: Distributes a wide range of branded, generic, specialty, biosimilar, and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs and other healthcare products in the U.S. and internationally.
- Medical-Surgical Supply Distribution: Provides medical-surgical supply distribution, logistics, and other services to healthcare providers.
- Pharmacy & Specialty Practice Solutions: Offers practice management, technology, clinical support, business, financial, operational, and consulting services for pharmacies and community-based specialty practices.
- CoverMyMeds: A solution designed to help patients obtain and manage their medications.
- Rx Technology & Automation: Provides workflow solutions (RelayHealth), services for biopharma manufacturers (RxCrossroads), customized pharmacy automation technology, and multi-client central fill services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
McKesson Corporation (MCK) primarily sells to other companies and organizations within the healthcare industry. The provided company description does not identify specific major customer companies by name or symbol. Instead, McKesson serves a vast and diverse network of businesses across various segments of the healthcare supply chain. Based on the company's operations, its major customer categories include:
- Pharmacies: This encompasses a wide range of pharmacies, including independent retail pharmacies, large chain pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, and specialty pharmacies.
- Healthcare Providers and Institutions: This category includes hospitals, health systems, clinics, community-based oncology practices, other specialty practices, and various long-term care facilities.
- Biopharma Manufacturers: McKesson provides solutions and services to biopharmaceutical manufacturers, particularly through its Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) segment.
- Wholesale Customers: Especially within its International segment, McKesson serves other wholesale distributors, in addition to direct institutional and retail customers.
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- Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
- AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
- Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
- Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
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Brian Tyler, Chief Executive Officer
Brian Tyler became Chief Executive Officer of McKesson Corporation in April 2019, having joined the company in 1997. He has held a diverse range of leadership positions across McKesson, including Chief Operations Officer, Chairman of the Management Board of McKesson Europe, President of North American Pharmaceutical Distribution and Services, President of U.S. Pharmaceutical, Medical-Surgical, and Specialty Health divisions, and Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Business Development, where he oversaw corporate strategy and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Before his tenure at McKesson, he was a Senior Associate at Integral, Inc., a healthcare consulting firm. Tyler also served on the board of directors of VistaCare until its merger in 2008. He currently serves on the board of directors for Republic Services and the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers (IFPW).
Britt Vitalone, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Britt Vitalone assumed the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in January 2018, having joined McKesson in 2006. His prior roles at McKesson include Senior Vice President & CFO of McKesson U.S. Pharmaceutical and Specialty Health, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Merger & Acquisition (M&A) Finance, and Senior Vice President & CFO of McKesson Medical-Surgical. Vitalone possesses extensive expertise in mergers and acquisitions and portfolio management. Before joining McKesson, he held various financial leadership positions at GE Capital Corporation, Pembrooke Occupational Health, and CarMax.
Tracy Faber, Executive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer
Tracy Faber serves as Executive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer for McKesson. Prior to joining McKesson in 2011 as Senior Vice President of Human Resources, she spent 13 years with PepsiCo in executive HR capacities. She also led the HR department at Eaton Corporation and Nabisco. Her contributions at McKesson include building relations capability and leading change management efforts for the company's strategic transformation.
Nancy Flores, Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer, and Chief Technology Officer
Nancy Flores is McKesson's Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer, and Chief Technology Officer. In this role, she is responsible for enterprise business technology governance, strategy, risk management, IT security, service delivery, and infrastructure operations. She also oversees the company's overall technology initiatives for healthcare technology products and supports application development processes.
Tom Rodgers, Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy and Business Development Officer
Tom Rodgers was appointed Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy and Business Development Officer in June 2020. He is responsible for McKesson's overall initiatives, strategic plans, acquisitions, and internal programs designed to enhance financial performance, foster innovation, and deliver customer value. His background includes significant experience in both large healthcare and venture capital environments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for McKesson (MCK) largely stem from the highly regulated and competitive nature of the healthcare and pharmaceutical distribution industries.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: McKesson operates within a highly regulated healthcare environment, subjecting it to extensive healthcare, environmental, and privacy regulations. This leads to significant compliance costs and exposure to potential legal actions. The company faces ongoing litigation and regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning its role in distributing controlled substances like opioids, which could result in substantial financial liabilities and reputational damage. Furthermore, changes in healthcare reform efforts, reimbursement methodologies, and new regulations related to drug pricing transparency and access to care pose continuous threats to its business model and profitability.
- Competitive Pressure and Margin Compression: McKesson operates in a highly competitive industry with significant pressure from peers, which can erode profit margins and affect its ability to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers and customers. The pharmaceutical distribution business is characterized by massive volumes and typically "razor-thin" margins. There has been a trend of decreasing gross profit margins, driven by factors such as generic drug price deflation and the buying power of large retail national accounts. Maintaining market share in this environment requires continuous investment in technology and services, further straining financial resources.
- Operational and Supply Chain Risks: Given McKesson's extensive role in healthcare supply chain management and technology solutions, it faces significant operational risks. These include cybersecurity threats, which could compromise technology systems and lead to data breaches. The company's reliance on third-party service providers also introduces risks related to outsourcing and potential supply chain disruptions. Additionally, issues affecting product efficacy or safety at any point from manufacturing, storing, to distributing, or dispensing could result in recalls, regulatory actions, civil lawsuits, fines, and reputational harm.
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The potential for Amazon to leverage its extensive logistics network, technological capabilities, and increasing presence in healthcare (e.g., Amazon Pharmacy, PillPack, RxPass) to expand aggressively into large-scale, B2B pharmaceutical and medical-surgical wholesale distribution, directly competing with McKesson's core distribution segments. This represents an emerging threat by a well-capitalized, technologically advanced company with a history of disrupting established industries through efficiency and direct-to-customer or direct-to-business models, potentially bypassing traditional distribution channels.
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McKesson Corporation operates in several large addressable markets across its segments. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
U.S. Pharmaceutical Segment
- Pharmaceutical Distribution (branded, generic, specialty, biosimilar, and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs): The U.S. pharmaceutical market size was estimated at USD 634.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 1,107.4 billion by 2034.
- Pharmaceutical Logistics (part of pharmaceutical distribution): The U.S. pharmaceutical logistics market size was estimated at USD 26.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 45.22 billion by 2030.
- Practice Management, Technology, Clinical Support, and Business Solutions to Community-Based Oncology and other Specialty Practices: The community oncology services market in the U.S. was valued at USD 70.44 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 161.32 billion by 2032. Another estimate indicates the U.S. community oncology services market is expected to grow to $81.33 billion in 2027.
International Segment
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Distribution (Europe and Canada):
- Global Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Distribution: The global pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution market is projected to reach approximately USD 1.5 trillion by 2033.
- Europe Pharmaceutical Market: The Europe pharmaceutical market size was estimated at USD 488.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,032.76 billion by 2034.
- Europe Pharmaceutical Logistics: The Europe pharmaceutical logistics market size is estimated at USD 90.30 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 109.44 billion by 2030.
- Canada Pharmaceutical Market: The Canada pharmaceutical market size was valued at USD 51.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 95.70 billion by 2033.
Medical-Surgical Solutions Segment
- Medical-Surgical Supply Distribution, Logistics, and other Services: While a specific market size for medical-surgical supply distribution was not distinctly identified, the broader global pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution market, which includes medical supplies distribution (medical devices, surgical supplies, diagnostic equipment), is projected to reach approximately USD 1.5 trillion by 2033.
Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) Segment
- Patient Medication Access (CoverMyMeds solution): The U.S. patient access solutions market was estimated at USD 485.11 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1043.57 million by 2035. The global patient access solutions market was valued at USD 1.86 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 3.70 billion by 2032.
- Pharmacy Management Systems (RelayHealth workflow solution): The U.S. pharmacy management system market was valued at US$ 21,017.59 million in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 53,139.59 million by 2030.
- Biopharma Manufacturer Services (RxCrossroads solution): The global biopharma service market size was valued at approximately USD 22 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 50 billion by 2032. The U.S. biopharmaceuticals contract manufacturing market size was estimated at USD 5.64 billion in 2025 and is expected to surpass around USD 8.45 billion by 2035. The global pharma contract commercialization market, with North America expected to have the highest share, is valued at USD 42.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 69.7 billion by 2034.
- Pharmacy Automation (McKesson Prescription Automation): The U.S. pharmacy automation devices market size was estimated at USD 2.73 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 5.01 billion by 2030. The North America pharmacy automation market size was valued at USD 3.49 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 7.43 billion by 2032.
- Central Fill as a Service (Multi-Client Central Fill as a Service): The global central fill pharmacy automation market was valued at USD 0.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.5 billion by 2034. The North America central fill pharmacy automation market size was over USD 1.04 billion in 2025 and is poised to exceed USD 3.29 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
McKesson Corporation (MCK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:-
Growth in North American Pharmaceutical Distribution
McKesson anticipates continued robust performance in its North American Pharmaceutical segment. This growth is primarily fueled by increasing prescription volumes, including higher demand across retail national account customers and the expanding distribution of specialty pharmaceutical products, such as GLP-1 medications. -
Expansion of Oncology and Multispecialty Care
The company is strategically investing in and expanding its oncology and multispecialty platforms. This involves growing its U.S. Oncology Network through new practice partnerships, expanding the distribution of oncology and other multispecialty products, and making targeted acquisitions to strengthen its position in these high-growth, higher-margin healthcare areas. -
Advancement of Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) and Biopharma Services
McKesson expects significant revenue growth from its Prescription Technology Solutions and Biopharma Services segments. This growth is driven by increased demand for access solutions, including prior authorizations for specialized medications, as well as an enhanced focus on digital transformation, AI investments, and partnerships with biopharmaceutical manufacturers. -
Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Optimization
McKesson is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions and optimizing its portfolio to focus on higher-growth, higher-margin opportunities. This includes integrating advanced data analytics and AI capabilities, as exemplified by recent acquisitions, and the planned divestiture of its Medical-Surgical Solutions business to sharpen its strategic focus on pharmaceutical and specialty services.
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Share Repurchases
- McKesson's Board of Directors approved a $4.0 billion increase to the share repurchase program in July 2024, raising the total authorization to $9.9 billion.
- The company repurchased $3.146 billion in shares in fiscal year 2025, $3.025 billion in fiscal year 2024, and $3.638 billion in fiscal year 2023.
- For the first three months of fiscal year 2025 (ending June 30, 2024), McKesson returned $527 million to shareholders through common stock repurchases.
Share Issuance
- McKesson has not had significant share issuances; instead, its shares outstanding have been declining. For instance, shares outstanding decreased by 4.47% in 2025, 5.7% in 2024, and 7.72% in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- McKesson acquired an 80% interest in Prism Vision Group for $850 million in February 2025.
- Other recent acquisitions by McKesson include Rx Savings Solutions and OncoHealth in 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- McKesson's capital expenditures averaged $439.4 million annually for the fiscal years ending March 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures reached a five-year peak of $537 million in March 2025.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures will gradually increase to support business growth, with a forecast of remaining below $2.4 billion in 2026, primarily focused on safety, reliability, and select growth projects.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| McKesson Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| McKesson Stock 5-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 7.0% | 03/24/2026 | |
| MCK Stock Surges 5.4% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Raised FY26 Guidance | 02/28/2026 | |
| McKesson Stock Surged 40%, Here's Why | 02/26/2026 | |
| McKesson Stock (+17%): Raised FY26 EPS Outlook Ignites Institutional Chase | 02/06/2026 | |
| How McKesson Stock Gained 40% | 02/06/2026 | |
| How Low Can McKesson Stock Really Go? | 12/04/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| How Will McKesson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 05/06/2026 | |
| McKesson Stock: A Compounding Engine Facing Its Critical Test | 04/20/2026 | |
| 5-Day Sell-Off Sends McKesson Stock Down -7% | 03/24/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/03/2026 | |
| Why McKesson Stock Jumped 40%? | 02/26/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MCK.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 191.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 49.2 |
| Rev LTM | 328,680 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,304 |
| FCF LTM | 4,385 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,948 |
| CFO LTM | 5,002 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,501 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 49.2 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -21.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (US) Pharmaceutical | 278,739 | 240,616 | 212,149 | 189,274 | 181,700 |
| International | 14,130 | 20,598 | 36,345 | 35,965 | 38,341 |
| Medical-Surgical Solutions | 11,313 | 11,110 | 11,608 | 10,099 | 8,305 |
| Prescription Technology Solutions | 4,769 | 4,387 | 3,864 | 2,890 | 2,705 |
| Corporate | 0 | ||||
| Total | 308,951 | 276,711 | 263,966 | 238,228 | 231,051 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (US) Pharmaceutical | 2,786 | 3,206 | 2,879 | 2,763 | 2,745 |
| Medical-Surgical Solutions | 952 | 1,117 | 959 | 707 | 499 |
| Prescription Technology Solutions | 835 | 566 | 500 | 395 | 396 |
| International | 319 | 136 | -968 | -37 | -161 |
| Other | -1,113 | ||||
| Total | 4,892 | 5,025 | 3,370 | 3,828 | 2,366 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $743.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 91.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/15/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $883.49 | $812.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -15.8% | -8.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.8% | 28.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| Upside Capture | 23.33 | 29.83 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Up Beta | 0.37 | 0.32 | -0.07 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Down Beta | 1.27 | 0.18 | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.48 | -0.10 |
| Up Capture | -6% | -4% | 28% | 24% | 21% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 33 | 66 | 138 | 426 |
| Down Capture | 219% | 119% | 36% | 27% | 19% | 4% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 25 | 31 | 59 | 114 | 327 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCK | 5.6% | 29.1% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.2% | 15.7% | 0.25 | 21.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.5% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 1.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.9% | 18.0% | 2.20 | -11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 13.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.2% | 42.1% | -0.25 | -26.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCK | 32.1% | 24.3% | 1.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.3% | 14.6% | 0.19 | 35.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 19.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.96 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.9% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 16.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.7% | 56.1% | 0.37 | -2.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCK | 16.3% | 28.9% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 52.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 40.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 16.0% | 0.71 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 4.2% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | 16.5% | 16.0% | 11.9% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | -0.4% | -5.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.8% | -5.8% | -2.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | 0.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | 6.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | 10.6% | 13.7% | 10.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | -11.3% | -10.5% | -18.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -0.4% | 1.1% | 7.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 17.4% | 19.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.3% | -10.5% | -18.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share | 38.8 | 39 | 39.2 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 38.6 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share Growth | 17.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 17.0% for 2026 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lau, Michele | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 990.00 | 2,725 | 2,697,750 | 3,214,530 | Form |
| 2 | Martinez, Maria | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 939.87 | 349 | 328,013 | 282,899 | Form | |
| 3 | Smith, Leann B | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 945.00 | 190 | 179,550 | 2,824,605 | Form |
| 4 | Lau, Michele | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 933.39 | 303 | 282,817 | 5,574,205 | Form |
| 5 | Rutledge, Napoleon B JR | SVP, Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 955.00 | 328 | Form |
MCK Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives a neutral 'Market Weight' rating. While McKesson benefits from a strong secular tailwind in pharmaceutical demand and a clear strategic plan to enhance margins, the risk-reward profile is fairly balanced. The competitive moat is solid but currently contested, evidenced by lagging profit growth in its core segment versus peers. The potential for margin upside from the oncology pivot is largely offset by the near-term risk of margin compression from the GLP-1 mix shift.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart' (70%), Secondary: 'Transition / Profit Pivot' (30%)McKesson is a mature, durable compounder in a stable oligopoly with strong free cash flow, fitting the 'Stalwart' archetype. However, the core investment thesis relies on its strategic shift from low-margin distribution to high-margin oncology and technology services, reflecting a 'Transition / Profit Pivot'.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for shareholder return is the ongoing pivot from the low-margin (sub-2% operating margin) core distribution business to high-margin, high-growth segments like Oncology & Biopharma services and Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS). This mix shift is the key to unlocking operating leverage and potential multiple expansion.
- The Oncology & Multispecialty segment saw a 37% revenue increase and a 57% adjusted operating profit increase in Q3 FY26, demonstrating significant momentum.
- Management has explicitly stated this pivot is a strategic priority, reinforced by actions like the planned separation of the Medical-Surgical business to increase focus.
- The RxTS segment, while only 1.5% of revenue, is a high-margin, SaaS-based profit engine that enhances customer stickiness.
PRIMARY RISK
The rapid growth of high-revenue, low-profitability GLP-1 drugs represents the most significant near-term friction to the margin expansion thesis. While these drugs boost top-line growth, they are sold to the largest, most-discounted customers and carry lower percentage-based fees, diluting overall gross and operating margins.
- McKesson reported $12.1 billion in GLP-1 revenue in Q1 2026 alone, indicating the massive scale of this low-margin category.
- Analysts have flagged that many pharmacies lose money on GLP-1 prescriptions due to low PBM reimbursement, indicating immense pricing pressure throughout the supply chain.
- Q3 FY26 results showed core segment revenue growth of 9% but adjusted operating profit growth of only 6%, suggesting margin pressure is already materializing.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Oncology & Multispecialty Adjusted Operating Profit Growth YoY | > 30% | This is the primary engine of the margin expansion thesis. Growth below this level would signal a material slowdown in the Alpha Driver. |
| North American Pharmaceutical Adjusted Operating Profit Growth YoY | Stable or Accelerating (vs. current 6%) | Monitors the health of the core business. Further deceleration, especially relative to peers, would indicate the profit erosion in the core is worsening, increasing the burden on the growth segments to compensate. |
| Consolidated Gross Margin % (QoQ & YoY) | Stable to Increasing | This is the most direct indicator of whether the positive mix shift from oncology services is successfully offsetting the negative mix shift from GLP-1s. |
The GLP-1 Margin Drag vs. The Oncology Profit Pivot
BULL VIEW
The strategic pivot to high-margin oncology services will drive consolidated margin expansion and a higher-quality earnings stream, justifying a premium multiple.
CORE TENSION
Can high-margin Oncology & Biopharma services grow fast enough to offset the significant margin dilution from high-volume, low-profitability GLP-1 drugs?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q3 FY26 results show the tension perfectly: core segment profit growth (6%) lagged revenue (9%), while the Oncology & Multispecialty segment's operating profit surged 57%.
BEAR VIEW
The negative mix shift from explosive GLP-1 growth will overwhelm gains from the oncology pivot, leading to flat or declining operating profit growth despite strong revenue.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
May 7, 2026 | Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Consolidated Gross Margin % vs. >30% Oncology Operating Profit Growth. The key is whether oncology strength can offset expected GLP-1 pressure. |
Early August 2026 | Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Watch: North American Pharmaceutical Adjusted Operating Profit Growth relative to peers. Must not lag Cencora (25.1%) and Cardinal (29%) further. |
Next 6 Months | Antitrust Scrutiny Update Watch: Headline announcing a formal Civil Investigative Demand (CID) or lawsuit from the FTC/DOJ against any of the 'Big Three' wholesalers. |
Next 30-90 Days | Pharmacy Customer Financial News Watch: Major pharmacy chain announces significant store closures or files for bankruptcy, or a spike in MCK's 'Provision for bad debts'. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2025 | Quarterly Dividend Declaration Details: The Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share, signaling continued confidence in cash flow generation. | Slight -1.7% pullback $824.07 -> $809.91 |
Nov 5, 2025 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Raise Details: Reported Q2 adjusted EPS growth of 39% and raised full-year FY26 guidance, citing strong performance in its oncology and biopharma services segments. | Flat (0.3%) $840.18 -> $842.77 |
Feb 4, 2026 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Raise Details: Reported strong beats, with Oncology operating profit up 57%. Raised FY26 EPS guidance, driving a massive rally despite core segment profit growth of only 6%. | Surged +16.5% $821.31 -> $957.00 |
Mar 20, 2026 | FTC Announces Healthcare Task Force Details: The FTC announced a new task force to increase antitrust scrutiny on healthcare, raising sector-wide concerns about wholesalers. Stock pulled back slightly on the news. | Slight -1.5% pullback $898.95 -> $885.84 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate but spiking near-term. While sentiment is Bullish and valuation is Fair, the 'Contested' moat and lagging core profit growth prevent a max-sized position. A standard allocation is appropriate.
Diversification Alternatives
HALO
SECTORUnlike MCK, HALO has a capital-light, high-margin royalty model. It benefits from broad pharma success, avoiding direct drug pricing and reimbursement risks.
USPH
SECTORA pure-play on US demographic trends (aging population). Its business is simpler and less exposed to complex pharmaceutical pricing legislation than MCK.
McKesson is evolving from a low-margin pharmaceutical wholesaler into a more specialized healthcare services organization by focusing on high-growth, higher-margin oncology and biopharma platforms.
Filter all news through the lens of margin expansion and the strategic shift away from commoditized distribution.
Announcements of oncology-related acquisitions (e.g., Florida Cancer Specialists); biopharma services contract wins; growth in the Prescription Technology Solutions segment outpacing core distribution; successful separation of the Medical-Surgical Solutions business.
Sustained gross margin compression; loss of a major customer contract (e.g., CVS Health); significant legislative action on drug pricing that negatively impacts distributor margins; failure to integrate technology or oncology acquisitions effectively.
Short-term fluctuations in generic drug pricing (a constant operational factor); quarterly changes in GLP-1 drug volumes (a transient growth driver, not a structural shift); minor bolt-on acquisitions in the core distribution business.
Repricing Catalyst
The strategic focus on expanding its oncology and biopharma services platforms, which carry structurally higher margins than core distribution, and the planned separation of its Medical-Surgical Solutions segment to further streamline the business.
U.S. Pharmaceutical Distribution
$327.7B TTM (91.3% of Total) · 1.6% MarginWhat It Is
Wholesale distribution of branded, generic, specialty, and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals.
Who Pays & How
CVS Health is the largest customer, accounting for ~27% of total revenue under a multi-year agreement extending to June 2027. Customers pay for reliable, next-day access to a comprehensive catalog of pharmaceuticals at scale, with high switching costs due to integrated inventory and compliance tools.
Competition
Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS)
$5.2B TTM (1.5% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Software and services for pharmacies and biopharma companies, including prescription price transparency, prior authorization (CoverMyMeds), and patient support programs.
Who Pays & How
Pharmaceutical manufacturers, pharmacies, and payers pay for software solutions that streamline medication access, adherence, and affordability, improving operational efficiency.
Competition
Other (Medical-Surgical & International)
$26.1B TTM (7.2% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Distribution of medical-surgical supplies to physician offices, long-term care facilities, and home health agencies. International segment is primarily pharmaceutical distribution in Canada.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals, physician offices, and Canadian pharmacies pay for a broad catalog of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, leveraging McKesson's logistical scale.
Competition
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