Burford Capital (BUR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Burford Capital (BUR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 81x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Litigation Finance. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -93% | |
| Short seller report |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Litigation Finance. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 81x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -93% |
| Short seller report |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BUR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining why Burford Capital's stock moved by -31.4% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Burford Capital reported significantly poor financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company posted a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share. Furthermore, revenue for the quarter was $69.8 million, falling short of the $136.03 million expected by analysts and considerably lower than the $249.11 million reported in the same quarter a year prior. The company also swung to a net loss of $19.16 million, a sharp decline from the net income of $135.64 million in the prior year. This substantial earnings miss significantly impacted investor sentiment.
2. The company experienced a decline in its year-to-date capital provision income. This reduction was attributed to duration model extensions, suggesting challenges in the company's financial modeling and revenue recognition, which can signal underlying operational difficulties.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BUR Return | 3% | 11% | -22% | 93% | -18% | -26% | 6% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BUR Win Rate | 17% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BUR Max Drawdown | -63% | -16% | -32% | -19% | -20% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 215 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Burford Capital's stock fell -51.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -51.0% loss requires a 104.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Burford Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 32 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal Finance | 908 | 337 | |||
| Reconciling items | 110 | ||||
| Asset Management and Other Services | 68 | ||||
| Asset management | 15 | ||||
| Services and other corporate | 14 | ||||
| Total | 1,087 | 366 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal Finance | 4,044 | 2,971 | 2,451 | 2,526 | 2,395 |
| Reconciling items | 1,622 | ||||
| Asset Management and Other Services | 172 | 98 | 63 | ||
| Adjustment for third-party interests | 1,070 | 788 | |||
| Other corporate | 150 | ||||
| Other Corporate Activity | 222 | ||||
| Asset management | 31 | 2 | |||
| Services and other corporate | 171 | 255 | |||
| Total | 5,837 | 4,288 | 3,525 | 2,728 | 2,652 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | Quarterly 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | Annual 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9132023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 5162023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 9092021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 3242021 | 20-F 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |