Tearsheet

Burford Capital (BUR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52 | Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Burford Capital (BUR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52
Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 81x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Litigation Finance.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -93%
3   Short seller report
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Litigation Finance.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 81x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -93%
7 Short seller report

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BUR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining why Burford Capital's stock moved by -31.4% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Burford Capital reported significantly poor financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company posted a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share. Furthermore, revenue for the quarter was $69.8 million, falling short of the $136.03 million expected by analysts and considerably lower than the $249.11 million reported in the same quarter a year prior. The company also swung to a net loss of $19.16 million, a sharp decline from the net income of $135.64 million in the prior year. This substantial earnings miss significantly impacted investor sentiment.

2. The company experienced a decline in its year-to-date capital provision income. This reduction was attributed to duration model extensions, suggesting challenges in the company's financial modeling and revenue recognition, which can signal underlying operational difficulties.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BUR Return3%11%-22%93%-18%-26%6%
Peers Return23%18%-13%10%1%1%42%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BUR Win Rate17%50%50%75%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%35%56%48%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BUR Max Drawdown-63%-16%-32%-19%-20%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-13%-31%-11%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBURS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-51.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven49 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven215 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-63.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven170.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS


In The Past

Burford Capital's stock fell -51.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -51.0% loss requires a 104.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Burford Capital (BUR)

Better Bets than Burford Capital (BUR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Burford Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BURVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameBurford .Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Price9.54163.1616.02116.902.60-16.02
Mkt Cap2.11.10.90.30.1-0.9
Rev LTM26887410015216-152
Op Inc LTM-179-44-8-44
FCF LTM3270104-35-9-32
FCF 3Y Avg-9412513816-10-16
CFO LTM3277104-32-9-32
CFO 3Y Avg-9313213817-9-17

Growth & Margins

BURVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameBurford .Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Rev Chg LTM-43.8%-1.2%-6.2%2.9%-8.5%--6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--2.4%159.6%-2.1%13.5%-5.7%
Rev Chg Q-93.1%-4.8%8.2%-2.0%-37.1%--4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-39.8%-1.2%2.1%-0.6%-16.9%--1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-20.5%-28.8%-49.1%-20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.9%-26.5%-74.1%-18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.1%--0.2%-6.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM12.0%8.9%104.5%-21.2%-55.2%-8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-3.8%15.6%142.9%11.7%-56.6%-11.7%
FCF/Rev LTM11.8%8.0%104.5%-23.1%-55.2%-8.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.0%14.7%142.9%11.0%-66.7%-11.0%

Valuation

BURVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameBurford .Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Cap2.11.10.90.30.1-0.9
P/S9.81.58.32.53.4-3.4
P/EBIT-3.6-8.72.8-3.6
P/E30.19.49.38.14.3-9.3
P/CFO81.416.68.0-11.8-6.1-8.0
Total Yield3.8%15.6%21.5%16.6%23.4%-16.6%
Dividend Yield0.5%5.0%10.7%4.3%0.0%-4.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.9%8.7%16.7%2.9%-17.7%-2.9%
D/E0.82.01.40.01.1-1.1
Net D/E0.61.60.9-0.1-0.9-0.6

Returns

BURVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameBurford .Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
1M Rtn-3.0%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.4%-1.8%
3M Rtn-27.2%-14.1%-0.8%-14.0%-15.9%--14.1%
6M Rtn-24.7%-1.2%0.7%-10.1%20.6%--1.2%
12M Rtn-27.8%-30.3%5.6%-24.3%43.6%--24.3%
3Y Rtn10.0%-7.0%43.3%-24.8%31.3%-10.0%
1M Excs Rtn-3.0%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.5%-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-33.2%-21.2%-6.9%-21.0%-18.7%--21.0%
6M Excs Rtn-39.5%-15.9%-14.1%-24.8%5.9%--15.9%
12M Excs Rtn-42.8%-44.0%-8.0%-37.4%29.3%--37.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-63.6%-75.8%-22.7%-96.4%-43.4%--63.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Principal Finance908   337
Reconciling items110    
Asset Management and Other Services68    
Asset management    15
Services and other corporate    14
Total1,087   366


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Principal Finance4,0442,9712,4512,5262,395
Reconciling items1,622    
Asset Management and Other Services1729863  
Adjustment for third-party interests 1,070788  
Other corporate 150   
Other Corporate Activity  222  
Asset management   312
Services and other corporate   171255
Total5,8374,2883,5252,7282,652


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,745,237
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.9%
Average Daily Volume3,030,526
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.23
Basic Shares Quantity219,267,032
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
63020258072025Quarterly 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
331202451320246-K 3/31/2024
123120233282024Annual 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202391320236-K 6/30/2023
12312022516202320-F 12/31/2022
630202280920226-K 6/30/2022
12312021329202220-F 12/31/2021
630202190920216-K 6/30/2021
12312020324202120-F 12/31/2020