Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $207.3 | Market Cap: $2.2 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $207.3Market Cap: $2.2 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 140 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 140 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Amazon's Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss and Free Cash Flow Concerns.
Amazon reported an EPS of $1.95 for the fourth quarter of 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $1.97 by 1.02%. Despite a 14% year-over-year increase in net sales to $213.4 billion, which beat revenue expectations, the company's free cash flow for the trailing twelve months decreased. This decline was primarily driven by a significant $50.7 billion increase in purchases of property and equipment, largely due to investments in artificial intelligence. This trend raised concerns among analysts regarding deteriorating free cash flow and escalating AI infrastructure costs.
2. Heightened Scrutiny on Increased Capital Expenditures for AI Investments.
Amazon's projected capital expenditures of $125 billion for 2025, expected to increase further in 2026, are heavily weighted towards AI infrastructure. This substantial investment has led to increased investor scrutiny and market volatility, as some investors question the near-term return on investment for these massive AI-related outlays, contributing to a potential valuation reset for major hyperscalers.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.0% change in AMZN stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 233.22 | 207.67 | -11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 691,330 | 716,924 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 10.8% | -2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 28.6 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,674 | 10,710 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.3% change in AMZN stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 229.00 | 207.67 | -9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 670,038 | 716,924 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.5% | 10.8% | 2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.5 | 28.6 | -17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,637 | 10,710 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 55.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 72.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in AMZN stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 212.28 | 207.67 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 637,959 | 716,924 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 10.8% | 16.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.8 | 28.6 | -24.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,551 | 10,710 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 71.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 78.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 120.4% change in AMZN stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.23 | 207.67 | 120.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 513,983 | 716,924 | 39.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 3.1 | 65.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,222 | 10,710 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 120.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 120.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 67.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 74.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMZN Return | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | 5% | -8% | 31% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -37% | 78% | 54% | 25% | -1% | 181% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMZN Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 35% | 70% | 72% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMZN Max Drawdown | -9% | -51% | -1% | -5% | -24% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -48% | -3% | -3% | -15% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 187.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -56.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/8/2021. A -56.1% loss requires a 128.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Amazon.com (AMZN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Amazon.com:
The **Walmart** for the internet, selling virtually everything online.
Like **Netflix** for digital content, combined with a fast shipping subscription service.
A massive cloud computing provider like **Microsoft** or **IBM**, offering foundational internet infrastructure to businesses worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Online & Physical Retail: Amazon sells consumer products and merchandise directly and from third-party sellers through its online and physical stores.
- Electronic Devices: The company manufactures and sells various electronic devices, including Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring security products, and Echo smart speakers.
- Cloud Computing Services (AWS): Amazon Web Services provides a comprehensive suite of cloud services, encompassing compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and more for businesses.
- Amazon Prime Membership: This subscription program offers benefits such as free expedited shipping, access to streaming movies and series, and other exclusive services.
- Seller & Content Creator Programs: Amazon provides platforms and services enabling third-party sellers to offer products and allowing authors, musicians, filmmakers, and developers to publish and sell content.
- Media Content Production: The company develops and produces original media content, including movies and series for its streaming services.
- Fulfillment & Advertising Services: Amazon offers fulfillment services for inventory storage and shipping, alongside advertising solutions for brands and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) primarily sells to individuals across several categories. While the company also has a significant business-to-business segment through Amazon Web Services (AWS) and services for third-party sellers, its core retail operations, device sales, and subscription services are largely directed at individual consumers.
The major categories of customers Amazon serves include:
- General Consumers/Shoppers: Individuals who purchase a vast array of physical products (ranging from electronics and books to groceries and and apparel) through Amazon's online marketplace and physical stores. This category also includes subscribers to the Amazon Prime membership program, who benefit from faster shipping, exclusive deals, and access to various digital content services.
- Digital Media Consumers: Individuals who utilize Amazon's digital content offerings. This encompasses viewers of Amazon Prime Video for movies and series, listeners of Amazon Music, readers of Kindle e-books, and users engaging with Twitch streams and other digital content platforms provided by Amazon.
- Device Owners: Individuals who purchase and use Amazon's proprietary electronic devices. This category includes owners of Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Echo smart speakers, and Ring smart home security devices, all designed for individual use and integration into their daily lives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Andy Jassy, President and Chief Executive Officer
Andy Jassy joined Amazon in 1997 as a marketing manager and co-founded Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2003, serving as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He held various leadership roles across Amazon before founding AWS. Before Amazon, Jassy co-founded a short-lived startup and worked as a project manager for a collectibles company. He earned an A.B. in government and an MBA from Harvard University.
Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian T. Olsavsky has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon since June 2015, having joined the company in April 2002. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Finance for the Global Consumer Business from 2011 to 2015. His earlier career included financial and operational roles at Union Carbide, BF Goodrich, and seven years at Fisher Scientific. Olsavsky holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State University and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Doug Herrington, Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores
Doug Herrington assumed the role of CEO of Worldwide Amazon Stores in July 2022. He joined Amazon in 2005 to launch the Amazon consumables business and led teams that developed services like Subscribe and Save, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Business, Alexa Shopping, and Buy with Prime. Before Amazon, Herrington was a management consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton. He also co-founded and served as CEO of KeepMedia, a digital news service, and held leadership positions at the grocery delivery startup Webvan. He earned an MBA from Harvard Business School and an AB in Economics from Princeton University.
Matt Garman, Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services
Matt Garman became CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in June 2024. He joined Amazon in 2006 (or as an intern in 2005) and was AWS's first product manager, contributing to the launch of many core AWS services. His previous roles at AWS include Senior Vice President, AWS Sales, Marketing, and Global Services, as well as leadership in product management, engineering, and operations for compute and storage services. Garman holds a B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and an MBA from Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management.
David Zapolsky, Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer
David Zapolsky serves as Amazon’s Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its dominant market position and the dynamic nature of the e-commerce and cloud computing industries.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Amazon's vast scale and market power in both e-commerce and cloud services have made it a frequent target for antitrust investigations and regulatory actions globally. Governments and regulatory bodies in the U.S., EU, UK, and other regions are actively scrutinizing Amazon's business practices, particularly concerning its treatment of third-party sellers, alleged anti-discounting tactics, and potential for self-preferencing its own products and services over competitors. These investigations can lead to significant fines, forced changes in business models, and even potential divestitures, which could fundamentally alter Amazon's operations and profitability. For instance, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 17 state attorneys general filed a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in September 2023, alleging the company illegally maintains monopolies in online superstore and online marketplace services. Separately, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon in September 2025 over allegations of enrolling millions of consumers in Prime subscriptions without consent and making cancellation difficult.
- Intense Competition Across Segments: Despite its market leadership, Amazon faces robust competition in its core business areas. In e-commerce, it competes with established retailers like Walmart and Target, as well as rapidly growing disruptive newcomers such as Temu and Shein. The threat of Amazon directly competing with its own third-party sellers by developing similar, often cheaper, private-label products is also a significant concern for many businesses utilizing its platform. In the cloud computing sector, Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds a leading market share but faces aggressive competition from well-funded rivals like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform. This intense competition across all segments can lead to pricing pressures, impact market share, and necessitate continuous heavy investment in innovation and infrastructure, potentially affecting profit margins.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Volatility: Amazon's retail business is highly susceptible to broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, interest rate changes, and overall consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer discretionary spending can directly impact sales volume and revenue in its North American and International retail segments. While AWS is a more resilient segment, enterprise spending on cloud services could also be affected during prolonged economic uncertainty. Rising operational costs, such as wages, shipping, and energy, further squeeze profit margins, even as Amazon navigates these economic fluctuations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The emergence of ultra-low-cost, direct-from-manufacturer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) which offer a different supply chain model, often with significantly lower prices, challenging Amazon's third-party marketplace and value proposition in certain retail categories.
- Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions that threaten to impose significant operational changes, fines, or restrictions on Amazon's business practices across its e-commerce and cloud segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) operates across several large and growing addressable markets globally and in North America. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
E-commerce (Retail Sale of Consumer Products)
- The global e-commerce market was valued at approximately USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 83.19 trillion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.43% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 33.8 trillion in 2025, growing to USD 243.4 trillion by 2034 with a CAGR of 24.54% from 2026-2034.
- The North America e-commerce market was valued at USD 1.45 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 2.51 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 9.57% during the forecast period (2026-2031). North America accounted for over 36% of the global market in 2023.
- Specifically, the North America B2C e-commerce market was valued at USD 1,354.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,015.39 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North America B2B e-commerce market is valued at USD 1,250 billion.
Amazon Web Services (AWS - Cloud Computing)
- The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 736.10 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 20.8% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global market at USD 943.65 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3,349.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.0% from 2026 to 2033.
- The North America cloud computing market was valued at USD 353.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,092.70 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.20% during the forecast period. North America held a 39.0% share of the global cloud computing market in 2024.
Electronic Devices (Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Echo - Smart Home Devices)
- The global smart home device market was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 27.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 163.30 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 278.32 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.62%.
- The North America smart home device market accounted for a leading global market share of 39.45% in 2025, with a market size of USD 70.38 billion in 2026. The U.S. smart home market was worth over USD 50.6 billion in 2024.
Digital Content and Publishing (Kindle Direct Publishing, media content)
- The global digital publishing market size was valued at USD 204.83 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 470.09 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source states the market was valued at USD 163.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 279.68 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period.
- North America was the largest region in the digital publishing market in 2025, accounting for 36.12% of the global market share.
Subscription Services (Amazon Prime - streaming of movies and series)
- The global video on demand (VOD) market was valued at approximately USD 175.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 528.9 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global market size at USD 133.44 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 477.04 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.90%.
- The global subscription video on demand (SVOD) market size was estimated at USD 95.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- The North America subscription video on demand market accounted for a significant share of over 44% in 2024. The U.S. subscription video on demand industry dominated with a share of over 67% in 2024.
Advertising
- The global digital advertising market size was estimated at USD 488.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,164.25 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another source estimates the global market at USD 650.00 billion in 2025, expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.38% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America dominated the digital advertising market with a share of over 31% in 2024. The North America digital advertising market generated a revenue of USD 153,063.9 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 339,261.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030. The US market is projected to reach USD 243,243.1 million by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Amazon.com (AMZN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI): Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, is projected to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. AWS reported a 24% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q4 2025, reaching $35.6 billion. Analysts expect AWS annual revenue growth to be around 30% over the next three years, surpassing the broader Wall Street projection of 25%. This acceleration is largely fueled by the surging demand for AI computing and ongoing migration of enterprise infrastructure to the cloud. Amazon is making substantial capital expenditures in AWS data centers, including AI infrastructure and custom silicon development, with plans to double power capacity by 2027. The company's cloud backlog also provides substantial revenue visibility, having reached $200 billion by Q3 2025 and $244 billion by Q4 2025.
- Expansion of Advertising Services: Amazon's advertising segment is rapidly growing and is expected to continue contributing significantly to revenue. Advertising services generated $56.2 billion in revenue in 2024, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $21.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 22% year-over-year. CEO Andy Jassy noted a $69 billion annual revenue run rate for the advertising business in Q4 2024. Projections suggest ad revenue could climb to $80-90 billion within the next 2-3 years. A key contributor to this growth is the introduction of ads on Prime Video in January 2024, which is forecast to increase ad revenue from $433 million in 2024 to $806 million in 2025. The ad-supported version of Prime Video reached over 130 million US consumers monthly in 2025, with an audience totaling 315 million viewers in Q4 2025.
- Growth and Enhancement of Amazon Prime Membership and Offerings: The Amazon Prime membership program remains a crucial driver by fostering customer loyalty and increasing shopping frequency. Paid US Amazon Prime subscribers are projected to exceed 128 million by the end of 2025, building on a base of over 240 million paid members globally. Amazon's strategies include offering flexible pricing plans (annual, monthly, quarterly, and "Lite" options in some markets) and enhancing benefits such as faster delivery, exclusive deals, and expanded digital content like Prime Video. The company's continued investment in innovative customer experiences, including AI-driven personalization and improvements in logistics for quicker delivery, further solidifies Prime's value proposition.
- International Expansion and Retail Optimization: Amazon's international segment is poised for continued growth. In 2025, the International segment sales increased by 13% year-over-year. The company is focused on capturing new audiences and fostering brand loyalty in emerging markets. Strategies include investments in rural markets and offering sharper prices in its international stores business. These efforts, combined with advancements in customer experience and optimized supply chain logistics, are expected to contribute to the overall retail segment's revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In March 2022, Amazon's board approved an expanded share-repurchase authorization of $10 billion, replacing a previous $5 billion authorization.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased approximately $3.88 billion worth of shares under the March 2022 authorization.
Share Issuance
- Amazon's common stock increased from 106 million shares in fiscal year 2021 to 112 million shares in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Amazon acquired Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) for $8.45 billion, significantly boosting its content library for Prime Video.
- The company acquired One Medical Group in July 2022 for approximately $3.9 billion.
- Amazon has committed significant international investments, including a $35 billion investment in India by 2030 and over $23 billion for new AWS cloud regions across Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $61.053 billion in 2021, $63.645 billion in 2022, $52.729 billion in 2023, $82.999 billion in 2024, and $131.8 billion in 2025.
- Amazon anticipates investing approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily focused on artificial intelligence (AI), chips, robotics, and low earth orbit satellites.
- The capital expenditure is also directed towards expanding cloud computing infrastructure for AWS and increasing its rural delivery network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AMZN.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | MSFT | Microsoft | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.2% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 254.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,886.6 |
| Rev LTM | 354,145 |
| Op Inc LTM | 81,626 |
| FCF LTM | 30,686 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 36,173 |
| CFO LTM | 127,657 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 103,096 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,886.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.6 |
| P/E | 28.1 |
| P/CFO | 20.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 201.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 125.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $207.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2,224.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $223.31 | $224.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.0% | -7.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 35.0% |
| Downside Capture | 163.64 | 158.73 |
| Upside Capture | 139.54 | 134.84 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.4% | 70.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.30 | 1.38 |
| Up Beta | -3.16 | -2.09 | -1.17 | 0.13 | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| Down Beta | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.78 | 1.83 | 1.36 | 1.53 |
| Up Capture | 45% | 124% | 114% | 157% | 156% | 303% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 132 | 397 |
| Down Capture | 227% | 196% | 174% | 174% | 129% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 29 | 58 | 118 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2.8% | 35.0% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 79.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 71.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 27.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 29.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 6.7% | 35.2% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 79.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 71.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 30.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 21.7% | 32.4% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 74.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 65.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.8% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 233.22 | 2,500 | 583,050 | 117,993,927 | Form |
| 2 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 19,872 | 4,310,952 | 479,061,908 | Form |
| 3 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.90 | 17,768 | 3,853,946 | 1,360,637 | Form |
| 4 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 7,100 | 1,540,277 | 11,879,655 | Form |
| 5 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 222.49 | 13,570 | 3,019,189 | 9,164,363 | Form |
AMZN Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly favorable probability-adjusted skew of 3.11x. While the primary risk from the capex cycle is significant and caused recent stock pressure, the leading indicators for the Alpha Driver (AWS backlog and growth acceleration) are exceptionally strong. The 'Rising Tide' of AI adoption provides a powerful secular tailwind that should outweigh the execution risks of the investment cycle, making this a high-conviction investment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderAmazon's investment profile is dominated by the high-growth, high-margin AWS and Advertising segments, which are the primary drivers of operating profit and future growth. The market values the company on the durability of this growth and its competitive moat in the cloud, justifying a high valuation and tolerating significant investment (capex), which aligns perfectly with the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis centers on the structural re-acceleration of Amazon's primary profit engine, AWS, driven by a multi-year AI infrastructure build-out. As AWS (+24% YoY) and Advertising (+22% YoY) significantly outgrow the lower-margin retail business, the resulting mix-shift will drive substantial, durable operating margin expansion and long-term free cash flow growth, a dynamic currently obscured by a near-term investment cycle.
- AWS revenue growth accelerated to 24% YoY in Q4 2025, the fastest rate in 13 quarters.
- Record AWS backlog of $244 billion, up 40% year-over-year, providing high visibility into future revenue.
- AWS now represents over 60% of total company operating profit, despite being less than 20% of total revenue.
- GenAI has already become a multi-billion dollar business for AWS, signaling strong early adoption and monetization.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction on the stock is the market's negative reaction to a massive, front-loaded capital expenditure cycle. The guidance for $200 billion in capex for 2026 creates significant investor concern about near-term free cash flow suppression and raises the execution risk that the returns from this investment will lag, compressing ROIC and valuation multiples.
- Guidance for a 50% increase in capital expenditures to approximately $200 billion for fiscal year 2026.
- The stock fell 5.5% after the Q4 2025 earnings report despite a revenue beat and AWS acceleration, explicitly due to the capex guidance.
- Trailing twelve-month free cash flow fell 70% as of the last report, highlighting the immediate cash impact of the investment cycle.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AWS Revenue Growth Rate (YoY) | > 22% | This is the primary metric driving the Alpha thesis. It must remain in a state of acceleration or high-teen stability to justify the premium valuation and prove the ROI on capex. |
| Full-Year Capex Guidance | < $210 Billion | The primary friction on the stock is the $200B capex guide. Any upward revision would spook investors, while any commentary suggesting this is the 'peak' year would be a major positive catalyst. |
| Consolidated Operating Margin (% change QoQ) | Positive Sequential Growth | This metric tracks the tangible result of the margin-accretive mix-shift. It must show consistent improvement to validate the thesis that the growth in AWS and Advertising is successfully enhancing overall profitability. |
The AI Capex ROI Dilemma
BULL VIEW
AWS revenue re-acceleration to 24% and a record $244B backlog (+40% YoY) prove overwhelming demand that justifies the massive infrastructure investment for future growth.
CORE TENSION
Is the $200B capex plan a necessary investment for a new AI-driven growth cycle (Bull) or a value-destructive spending spree with uncertain returns (Bear)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock fell 5.5% after the Feb 5, 2026 earnings report, despite strong AWS growth, reacting directly to the 50%+ increase in 2026 capex guidance to $200 billion.
BEAR VIEW
A 70% drop in trailing FCF and lower Q1 operating income guidance show costs are front-running revenue, signaling significant near-term margin compression and investment risk.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Capex Update Watch: AWS revenue growth rate vs. any revisions to the $200B full-year capex guidance. |
Next 3-6 Months | Major Labor Unionization Vote Watch: Outcome of a unionization vote at a critical fulfillment center or air hub (e.g., KCVG). |
Ongoing in 2026 | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Enforcement Action Watch: Announcement of a formal investigation by the European Commission into a specific Amazon service. |
Monthly | Release of Key US Consumer Data Watch: Monthly US consumer credit and retail sales data. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 14, 2025 | New Prime Member Perks Announced Details: Amazon announced an expansion of Prime benefits, including new streaming content and faster delivery options, reinforcing the value of its subscription ecosystem ahead of the holiday season. | Rose significantly by 2.9% $224.56 -> $230.98 |
Sep 23, 2025 | FTC Secures $2.5B Prime Settlement Details: News broke that Amazon settled with the FTC for $2.5 billion over its Prime subscription practices, highlighting ongoing regulatory pressure and setting a precedent for significant financial penalties. | Fell notably by -3.0% $227.63 -> $220.71 |
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Amazon reported Q3 results showing AWS growth stabilizing around 20% and strong retail performance, which was received positively by investors prior to the aggressive 2026 spending guide. | Surged +9.6% $222.86 -> $244.22 |
Dec 1, 2025 | FTC Antitrust Trial Date Scheduled Details: A federal judge scheduled the FTC's monopolization lawsuit against Amazon for October 2026. The market reaction was muted, viewing it as a procedural step in a long-running case. | Flat (0.3%) $233.22 -> $233.88 |
Jan 9, 2026 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a new 52-week high, capping a strong rally from late 2025 before the subsequent Q4 earnings pullback. | Flat (0.4%) $246.29 -> $247.38 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Capex Guidance Details: AWS growth accelerated to 24% YoY, but the stock dropped sharply after guiding for a massive $200B in 2026 capital expenditures, fueling concerns over near-term free cash flow. | Plummeted -5.6% $222.69 -> $210.32 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The Bearish sentiment, driven by uncertainty around the profitability of massive capex, and a contested moat in the key AI growth segment, warrants a cautious, watchlist-sized position.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT
OTHERA more focused enterprise AI play via its OpenAI partnership and existing software dominance, avoiding Amazon's low-margin retail business and logistical complexity.
BKNG
SECTORCapital-light model focused on high-margin online travel, which avoids the massive infrastructure capex and physical logistics overhang of Amazon.
Amazon is transitioning from a low-margin global retailer into a high-margin, vertically integrated AI infrastructure company, where the majority of operating profit is generated by Amazon Web Services (AWS) and high-growth advertising services.
Filter all news through the lens of AWS's re-acceleration and the profitability of non-retail segments (Advertising, Subscriptions).
AWS revenue growth accelerating or holding above 20% YoY; AWS backlog growth >30% YoY; Advertising revenue growth >20% YoY; North America retail operating margin expansion.
Sustained deceleration in AWS revenue growth below 15%; significant decline in AWS operating margin; signs of weakness in advertising spend; regulatory action targeting AWS or the third-party marketplace.
Quarterly fluctuations in international retail sales; non-AI-related capital expenditure discussions; short-term changes in Prime subscriber numbers (unless a major trend shift); first-party retail product announcements.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's valuation of AWS as a standalone entity, driven by re-accelerating growth (+24% YoY in Q4 2025) fueled by demand for GenAI workloads. This, combined with the rapidly growing, high-margin Advertising business (+22% YoY), is creating a significant profit engine increasingly detached from the lower-margin retail business.
Cloud Computing (AWS)
$142.3B TTM (18% of Total) · 35% MarginWhat It Is
Cloud infrastructure (IaaS) and platform (PaaS) services, including computing (EC2), storage (S3), databases, and AI/ML tools. Custom silicon includes Graviton and Trainium chips.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises (like OpenAI, Visa, Salesforce) and startups pay for scalable, on-demand computing infrastructure, avoiding the high cost of building and maintaining their own data centers. Switching costs are high due to data gravity and deep integration.
Competition
North American Retail & Services
$508.3B TTM (60% of Total) · 9% MarginWhat It Is
Online and physical retail sales (1P), third-party seller services (3P), advertising services, and subscriptions (Amazon Prime).
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for products and Prime memberships ($139/year) for convenience and fast shipping. Third-party sellers pay fees for marketplace access and fulfillment. Advertisers pay to reach high-intent shoppers.
Competition
International Retail & Services
$202.9B TTM (22% of Total) · 2.1% MarginWhat It Is
Online retail sales, third-party seller services, advertising, and subscriptions in regions outside of North America.
Who Pays & How
Consumers, sellers, and advertisers in established markets like Europe and Japan, and emerging markets.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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