How Low Can First Solar Stock Go?
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First Solar (FSLR) stock fell 12.0% in the week to November 12, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 3.3%. It closed at $172.3, 45.9% below its highest close of the past year. For a holder who bought near that high, the bigger worry is a fall in the whole market on top of it. If the market turns, how much has First Solar lost in past shocks, and how long did the shares take to come back?
How Far Has First Solar Fallen In Market Shocks?
During the market shocks First Solar has traded through, its deepest drop occurred in the Global Financial Crisis. The stock lost 69% while the market, measured by the SPY S&P 500 fund with dividends, fell 53%. The gap was wider in the US debt ceiling crisis of 2011, when the stock lost 65% against an 18% decline for the fund. Across both crises, the fall was far deeper: the shares lost 96.2% from their May 16, 2008 close to their June 1, 2012 low. Over all 15 shocks, First Solar has on average fallen much further than the market, shedding 31.8% against 15.8% for the fund.
Recovery times have varied widely. The median rebound took 3.4 months from the low, but three of the 15 stretched beyond a year. After the 2011 crisis, the shares needed 130.2 months to regain their earlier peak. After the Global Financial Crisis, they needed 210.4 months.
First Solar Earns More On Flat Sales
First Solar keeps far more of each sales dollar than it did a year ago, but its sales have stopped growing. Revenue over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 was $5.01 billion, against $5.05 billion a year earlier. Operating margin over the same twelve months rose to 37.7% from 29.8%, its highest at any quarter end in data going back to fiscal Q4 2016.
Performance weakened in the latest quarter. Revenue in fiscal Q3 2026 fell 22.8% from a year earlier to $1.23 billion. Management attributed the decline to fewer modules sold to third parties. Free cash flow shrank to $0.233 billion over the twelve months, down from $0.615 billion a year earlier. It was negative in each of the three quarters of 2026, $0.837 billion in all, so the twelve-month total rests on fiscal Q4 2025’s $1.07 billion. The company holds little debt, reporting $1.62 billion of cash and short-term investments at September 30, 2026, against $0.108 billion of debt.
What Is Getting Worse At First Solar Now?
On October 29, 2026, management cut its forecast for 2026 net sales to a midpoint of $4.75 billion, down from $5.05 billion in its July forecast. The company expects to sell fewer modules, including about 0.7 gigawatts less from its India facility to buyers in India.
Orders for deliveries further out are also being put off. Management said on the October 29 call that customers are deferring procurement on early-stage projects that need modules later in the decade. The company also faces a decision on its Malaysia facility, which has 1.8 gigawatts a year of capacity. Management expects the plant either to run at or near full capacity or to shut down, with the decision due in the first half of 2027.
When First Solar next reports, expected in February 2027, full-year 2026 net sales will be the figure to watch against that lowered forecast.
Still Holding First Solar After The Drop?
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