5 Green Days In A Row: Tesla Stock Is Up 16%

TSLAYTD-11.6%SPYYTD+11.6%XLYYTD+1.3%
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Tesla (TSLA) stock has risen for 5 consecutive trading days, gaining 15.6% over that stretch. That added about $174.2 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $1.29 trillion. The stock closed at $397.45 on Thursday, November 12, 18.9% below its 52-week high of $489.88 and 33.2% above its low of $298.32.

Image from Pixabay

 
The Streak Next To The S&P 500

Returns for TSLA and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Thursday, November 12 and including dividends:
 

Return Period TSLA S&P 500
1 Day 1.7% -0.3%
5 Days (Current Streak) 15.6% 3.3%
1 Month (21 Trading Days) 8.2% -1.6%
3 Months (63 Trading Days) 16.1% -2.2%
Year To Date -11.6% 12.0%
1 Year (252 Trading Days) -9.6% 12.2%

Is This Move About Tesla Or The Market?

Over the same 5 trading days, the S&P 500 returned +3.3% including dividends, so the run is mostly Tesla’s own story rather than the market’s. 11 other S&P 500 stocks are currently on winning streaks of 5 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is up 16.1%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 58 sessions of that window it was essentially flat (+0.4%).

Is The Business Keeping Up With The Stock?

On the fundamentals, revenue grew 8.3% over the last twelve months, against a median of 7.7% for S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary stocks; and its operating margin is 3.5%, versus a median of 14.9%. The read is mixed: revenue growth above the median on one side, margins below the median on the other.

If you are looking for strength with more behind it than a hot tape, our Guidance Momentum screen surfaces the names where management raised its own outlook.

For anyone who would rather back the theme than one company, a consumer discretionary ETF like XLY holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.

Streaks End. Discipline Compounds

A run like this is genuinely useful information: something about this business has the market’s full attention. But streaks are where discipline gets tested, because the urge to chase strength is strongest right before it pauses.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio channels that urge into a system: roughly 30 businesses selected for consistent cash generation, strong margins, and resilient balance sheets, sized and rebalanced with rules rather than excitement. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Enjoy the streak; own the process.