What Could Lift Cisco Stock?
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock returned 45.9% in the year through November 4, 2026. The S&P 500 returned 14.9% over the same period. Following that run, the shares trade at 30.8 times Cisco’s earnings for the four quarters ending July 25, 2026. That compares with an average P/E of 25.1 across its last twelve fiscal quarter ends. So what in Cisco’s business could lift the shares from here?
Cisco’s Upside Would Come Entirely From Higher Sales
All of Cisco’s gain under a three-year scenario would come from selling more. In fiscal 2026, Networking generated most of its extra sales. The Networking business made up 54.7% of revenue that year, with sales rising 22.5%. Services, the next-largest business, remained flat. Cisco is also selling more to AI buyers. On the August 12, 2026 call, management said AI infrastructure for hyperscalers, the largest cloud companies, accounted for about 6% of fiscal 2026 revenue. That figure is up from less than 2% in fiscal 2025.
If Cisco’s revenue grew 10.0% a year for three years, a pace below its fiscal 2026 growth, the shares would be worth about 11.2% more than today. The table below shows Cisco today alongside that scenario.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.3 billion | $84.3 billion |
| Net margin | 21.0% | 20.6% |
| Earnings | $13.3 billion | $17.4 billion |
| P/E | 30.8 | 26.2 |
| Share price | $103.61 | $115.19 |
Cisco would need to sell enough more to offset a slightly lower net margin and a lower P/E. Trefis assumes a lower P/E because the stock currently trades above its own average.
Cisco Expects Faster Growth Than The Scenario Assumes
Management guided for fiscal 2027 revenue of $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion. The midpoint of that range sits 15.0% above fiscal 2026. The scenario assumes 10.0% annual growth, trailing the 15.0% guidance, because the scenario is set slightly below Cisco’s fiscal 2026 growth and the guide covers only fiscal 2027.
Cisco posted faster growth in each quarter of fiscal 2026, from 7.5% revenue growth in the first quarter to 17.6% in the fourth, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Management expects AI sales to grow further, projecting $7.5 billion of revenue from AI infrastructure for hyperscalers in fiscal 2027. That compares with about $4 billion in fiscal 2026. Excluding that hyperscale revenue, management said its guidance has the rest of the business growing about 10%.
Price accounted for part of the fourth quarter’s growth. Management said hardware price increases added about 5 points to revenue growth in that quarter.
How Would Cisco’s Upside Change With Other Assumptions?
The table below shows the upside with one assumption changed at a time.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 11.2% |
| Revenue growth of 8.0% a year instead of 10.0% | 5.2% |
| Net margin of 19.7% in year three instead of 20.6% | 6.5% |
| P/E of 30.8 in year three instead of 26.2 | 30.8% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 34.5% |
| First-year revenue growth of 15.0% (management’s fiscal 2027 guide) instead of 10.0% | 16.2% |
Under every case shown in the table, Cisco shares would still be worth more than today.
Keeping the other assumptions unchanged, Cisco’s share price after three years would be no higher than today if revenue grew 6.2% a year. That compares with 11.8% in fiscal 2026, its fastest growth of the last three fiscal years. The shares would also be no higher with a net margin of 18.5% in year three, against 21.0% over the latest four quarters. The same holds true at a P/E of 23.6 in year three, which falls below the stock’s average at its last twelve fiscal quarter ends.
Cisco is expected to report results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the year for which management provided guidance, in November 2026. Its revenue growth against the same quarter a year earlier is the number to watch in that report.
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