Could Enphase Or Centene Stock Double?
Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
What Does Everyone Already Know?
Democrats won both chambers on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Centene closed up 12.6%, Tenet 9.6% and First Solar 4.6%, on hopes for Obamacare subsidies and friendlier energy policy. On Monday we named Oscar, Centene and Tenet in 3 Stocks That Could Pop If Democrats Win. All three popped; Oscar closed up 8.6%. The next question is the bigger one: which could double?
What Does Our Data Say?
That the obvious winners were already priced as winners. At Tuesday’s close, before Wednesday’s jump:
| Stock | 12-month return | Below 52-week high |
|---|---|---|
| Centene (CNC) | +96% | −5% |
| Oscar Health (OSCR) | +84% | −6% |
| Tenet (THC) | +32% | −5% |
| First Solar (FSLR) | −30% | −42% |
| Enphase (ENPH) | +3% | −58% |
The policy winners were near their highs before the vote. The cheap names are the ones the policy helps least.
On Wednesday, Centene, Oscar and Tenet all closed at 52-week highs. Some of that run may have been a bet on a Democratic win; betting markets made Democrats heavy favorites to take the House before the vote. A stock that has already doubled in a year can double again, but it has to do it from the top of its range, on earnings that have to keep beating.
How Often Does A Big Stock Double In A Year?
Rarely: a double takes a big move, and big moves come from stocks that swing a lot. At Wednesday’s close, options traders priced these five to swing about 41% a year for Centene, 43% for Tenet, 51% for First Solar, 66% for Oscar and 73% for Enphase. The more a stock swings, the better its odds of doubling, and of halving.
See more lines: where those swing figures come from
Implied volatility from ORATS for options expiring in January 2028, at the strike nearest each stock’s Wednesday close. It prices swings in both directions. It knows nothing about policy and is not a forecast.
What Would Each One Need To Double?
| Stock | Price, Wed | Double | What it takes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centene | $76.01 | $152 | Earnings about 50% higher, at a higher multiple |
| Oscar | $35.19 | $70 | Subsidies back and members back |
| Tenet | $292.25 | $585 | Earnings about 40% higher, multiple up about 40% |
| First Solar | $194.51 | $389 | A higher multiple and guidance that stops falling |
| Enphase | $31.55 | $63 | U.S. home solar demand back without the credit |
Enphase traded above its double price as recently as June.
Centene (CNC). It closed Wednesday at $76.01, up 12.6% from Tuesday’s $67.48. Centene now expects 2026 adjusted earnings above $5.20 a share, raised from above $4.80. That puts it near 15 times this year’s earnings. A double needs something like $8 a share at 19 times, which means enrollment returning under restored subsidies and margins holding. The catch: subsidies need a bill President Trump signs, perhaps in next year’s budget talks.
Oscar Health (OSCR). The purest Obamacare insurer of the three, worth about $10.6 billion at Wednesday’s close. A double makes it about $21.3 billion. It has the most to gain if subsidies return and the most to lose if they don’t; it rose 8.6% on Wednesday.
Tenet (THC). Hospitals gain when fewer patients are uninsured. Tenet’s 2026 adjusted earnings guidance is about $22 to $23 a share, or roughly 13 times Wednesday’s close. A double needs about $32 a share at about 18.3 times. Part of this year’s raise came from one-time items, as its finance chief said.
First Solar (FSLR). About 39% below its 52-week closing high of about $318 even after Wednesday, and around 11 times this year’s expected earnings of about $17.60 a share. A double to $389 would take it above its old high, at about 17 times next year’s expected earnings of about $23. It’s cheap partly because it just cut its 2026 sales outlook. Congress can’t restore the 2025 law’s clean-energy cuts past a veto, so the tailwind has to come from states, power demand and tariffs.
Enphase (ENPH). Down about 56% from its June closing high of $72.33. A double, to about $63, would still leave it below where it was five months ago. But the home-solar tax credit ended with 2025, and Enphase expects fourth-quarter revenue of only $225 million to $255 million, with its U.S. sell-through down 35% from a year ago last quarter. It’s the cheapest bet on a rebound, and the hardest one to time.
What Should You Do This Week?
Own the chance of a double without betting what you can’t lose. Rent protection on what’s already run.
1. Own the upside with a call spread, sized to lose in full. One example, for education only: with Enphase near $31.55, buying a January 2028 $35 call and selling a January 2028 $65 call cost about $5.18 a share at Wednesday’s close (midpoint of the bid and ask), or about $518 per contract. If Enphase doubles to about $63, the spread is worth about $28 a share, about five times the cost; the most it can pay is $30. If Enphase is below $35 in January 2028, you lose the full $518. Size it as money you’d be fine losing: on a $1 million portfolio, two contracts are about 0.1% of it.
2. If you own a midterm winner, rent the downside. Say you hold Centene after it more than doubled in a year. Buying a December 2027 $65 put cost about $6.68 a share at Wednesday’s close (midpoint of the bid and ask) and selling a December 2027 $100 call paid about $6.85, so the pair pays about $0.17 net. That sets a floor about 14% below Wednesday’s close and a cap about 32% above it until December 2027. The risk: you give up any gain above $100, a deal on subsidies could send it there, and a collar on stock you already own has tax rules worth checking first.
3. Don’t buy a double at the top of the range. If you want Centene, Oscar or Tenet but not after this run, set a lower price and wait for it. A policy pop that depends on a bill not yet written can give back much of its gain if the 2027 talks stall.
This is education, not personal advice; options aren’t right for every account.
What’s The Bigger Idea?
We call it Own the upside, rent the downside. A stock that could double is usually one that could also halve, and the honest odds of any one name doubling are small. So don’t stake a big position on the long shot. Own the long shot cheaply, in a size where a total loss doesn’t hurt, and protect the winners you already have rather than selling them on a headline.
The likely doubles aren’t the midterm winners. Centene, Oscar and Tenet got the tailwind but were already near their highs; a double from here needs a subsidy deal Trump signs and earnings that keep beating. Enphase and First Solar are cheap enough to double, but Congress can’t do much for them. We expect most of these five not to double. If you want the chance, own it with a small call spread and protect what’s already run.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Did the market overreact to the midterms? The biggest moves, measured against history.
- Why did Amazon and Google rise when Democrats threatened AI spending? The cash behind the rally.
Follow this story with us: we’ll track these five through the 2027 budget talks and tell you which ones are on the way to a double, and which aren’t.
Could A Long Shot Fit In Your Portfolio Without Risking Your Plan?
Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.